{"id":11886,"date":"2012-02-22T09:19:40","date_gmt":"2012-02-22T07:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11886"},"modified":"2012-02-22T09:19:49","modified_gmt":"2012-02-22T07:19:49","slug":"sermaye-akisi-ve-doviz-kuru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sermaye-akisi-ve-doviz-kuru\/","title":{"rendered":"Sermaye Ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve D\u00f6viz Kuru"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son ay\u0131nda d\u00f6viz kurunda\u00a0 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi hakim olmu\u015f, dolar kuru 1.90 TL d\u00fczeyinin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc zorlayacak seviyeye kadar gelmi\u015fti. Dikkatli okuyucular d\u00f6viz kurundaki bu e\u011filimin Ocak ay\u0131 ile birlikte ters d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, kurda\u00a0 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u00a0 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketlilik\u00a0 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemi\u015ftir A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u00a0 kur\u00a0 hareketi\u00a0 hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan buyana\u00a0 biraz daha da h\u0131zland\u0131.\u00a0 Dolar kurunun 1.70 TL alt\u0131na kadar inebilece\u011fi konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-919963178\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dolar kurunun b\u00f6yle adeta serbest d\u00fc\u015fme \u00f6rne\u011fi verir gibi d\u00fc\u015fmesi ulusal paray\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. E\u011filim bu h\u0131zda devam edecek olursa san\u0131r\u0131m birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u00a0 de\u011ferlendi\u011finden\u00a0 \u015fikayet etmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz\u00a0 kurunun\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve\u00a0 ulusal\u00a0 paran\u0131n\u00a0 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u00a0 de\u011ferlenme\u00a0 kulvar\u0131na\u00a0 girmesi sadece bize has bir geli\u015fme de\u011fil. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin pek \u00e7o\u011funda ayn\u0131 zamanda ba\u015flayan ve benzer hareket deseni g\u00f6steren d\u00f6viz kuru geli\u015fmeleri var. \u00c7o\u011funda d\u00f6viz kuru (dolar) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, ulusal paralar de\u011ferleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hareket genel olmakla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0 d\u00f6viz\u00a0 kuru g\u00f6rece daha\u00a0 h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselen,\u00a0 paras\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek h\u0131zda de\u011fer kaybeden \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz kurunda g\u00f6zlenen hareket genel oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re bunun ulusal ekonomilerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde genel nedenleri oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek do\u011fru olur.\u00a0 Bizde hareket daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re genel nedenin \u00f6tesinde \u00f6zel baz\u0131 nedenler de olmal\u0131 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde etki yaratan genel nedenler aras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte gev\u015feyen\u00a0 likidite geliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan buyana ciddi bir parasal gev\u015femeye gittiler. Bu da d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir\u00a0 likidite geni\u015flemesi yaratt\u0131. Gev\u015fek para tercihinde ba\u015f\u0131 ABD merkez bankas\u0131 FED \u00e7ekti.\u00a0 FED&#8217;in\u00a0 2014 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar\u00a0 gev\u015fek para-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u00a0 faiz\u00a0 politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda ciddi bir beklenti ve sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaymas\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 malum.\u00a0 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst y\u00f6netiminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen de\u011fi\u015fimin ard\u0131ndan bu bankan\u0131n da parasal gev\u015femeyle sonu\u00e7lanacak bir politika izlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck\u00a0 \u00fclkelerin\u00a0 merkez\u00a0 bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde\u00a0 bir kez daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u00a0 faiz- bol para ortam\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 paran\u0131n da bir kez daha gidecek yer aramas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. Sermaye hareketleri bir kez daha riski g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olarak alg\u0131lanan \u00fclkelere y\u00f6neliyor. Son bir bu\u00e7uk ayd\u0131r b\u00fct\u00fcn sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131 istatistikleri bu t\u00fcr az say\u0131da \u00fclkeye adeta y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmal\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sermaye girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00fclkelerde artan d\u00f6viz arz\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor, ulusal paray\u0131 de\u011ferliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3288979721\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye de bu \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Bize de neredeyse y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmal\u0131 denilebilecek boyutta, b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli tabii, sermaye giri\u015fi oluyor. D\u00f6viz kurunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp, TL&#8217; nin de\u011ferlenmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir nedeni bu.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u00a0 ba\u015f\u0131ndan\u00a0 bu yana risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki olumluya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f de d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya iten ikinci genel neden olarak say\u0131labilir.\u00a0 Bu ba\u011flamda iki geli\u015fmenin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek gerekir.\u00a0 Birincisi, hen\u00fcz gerekli mikro aranjmanlar b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle tamamlanmam\u0131\u015f olsa da, Avrupa riskinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015f\u0131yor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130kinci geli\u015fme ise 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u00a0 tahminleri genelde hala\u00a0 olmakla beraber beklentilerin ters d\u00f6nmeye, durumun o kadar da vahim olmayabilece\u011finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeye\u00a0 ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu iki geli\u015fme d\u00fcnyan\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli bir yer haline geldi\u011fi izlenimi yaratarak paran\u0131n az say\u0131da g\u00fcvenli limandan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p, ortal\u0131kta dola\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu da paran\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi bir \u00e7ok\u00a0 \u00fclkede\u00a0 d\u00f6viz kurunu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya itip, paran\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesi s\u00fcrecine\u00a0 katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bu t\u00fcr k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerden ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileniyor. Genel uyar\u0131c\u0131lara eklenecek yerel etkenlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda ku\u015fkusuz Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p, faizi koridorun \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na itmi\u015f olmas\u0131 geliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1093123211\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sermaye hareketlerinin\u00a0 liberasyonundan bu yana \u00fclkeye sermeye giri\u015fi \u00e7eken en \u00f6nemli etkenin\u00a0 (riske g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) faiz fark\u0131 oldu\u011funu biliyoruz.\u00a0 \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz\u00a0\u00a0 konjonkt\u00fcr bu t\u00fcr faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler lehine oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nem.\u00a0 Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131s\u0131 ile faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarken biz ve bize benzeyen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 ile faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde tutma ihtiyac\u0131 hissediyorlar. Bu da riski g\u00f6rece kontrol alt\u0131nda olan \u00fclkeleri adeta sermaye giri\u015fine davetiye \u00e7\u0131kartm\u0131\u015f duruma getiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Son aylardaki para politikam\u0131z ile biz de bu t\u00fcr\u00a0 &#8220;davet sahibi&#8221;\u00a0 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yorduk. D\u00fcnk\u00fc PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi koridorun alt\u0131na do\u011fru itmesi\u00a0 bu davetkarl\u0131ktan \u00e7ok da ho\u015fnut olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son ay\u0131nda d\u00f6viz kurunda\u00a0 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi hakim olmu\u015f, dolar kuru 1.90 TL d\u00fczeyinin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc zorlayacak seviyeye kadar gelmi\u015fti. Dikkatli okuyucular d\u00f6viz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11886\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}