{"id":11869,"date":"2012-02-21T14:15:12","date_gmt":"2012-02-21T12:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11869"},"modified":"2012-02-21T14:15:20","modified_gmt":"2012-02-21T12:15:20","slug":"uluslararasi-yatirim-pozisyonunda-son-durum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/uluslararasi-yatirim-pozisyonunda-son-durum\/","title":{"rendered":"Uluslararas\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Pozisyonu&#8217;nda Son Durum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131, Uluslararas\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Pozisyonu (UYP) verilerini d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131 ile d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan bu verilere g\u00f6re 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z 176.6 milyar dolar, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerimiz ise 500.2 milyar dolar.<br \/>\nAradaki 323.6 milyar dolarl\u0131k fark (net UYP), bu kadar miktarda d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ya da d\u00f6viz borcumuz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3908624547\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>GE\u00c7EN YILA KIYASLA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e VAR AMA&#8230;<\/strong><br \/>\nBu verilere g\u00f6re d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerimiz ile varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z aras\u0131nda 2010 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re 38.3 milyar dolar azal\u0131\u015f ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Bunun 7.1 milyar dolar\u0131 d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki, 45.4 milyar dolar\u0131 ise d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerindeki azalmadan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nAyr\u0131ca 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 sonundaki y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fck-varl\u0131k fark\u0131n\u0131n (361.9 milyar dolar\u0131n) milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 49.5 iken, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 42&#8217;ye inmi\u015f.<br \/>\nAnlam\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin net UYP&#8217;si iyile\u015fmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<br \/>\nD\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7inde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervleri (88.2 milyar dolar), bankalar ile di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin efektif ve mevduatlar\u0131 (46.2 milyar dolar) ile yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na yap\u0131lan do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar (23.9 milyar dolar) olu\u015fturuyor.<br \/>\nD\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri aras\u0131nda ise yurti\u00e7inde do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar (140.4 milyar dolar), portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 (109.2 milyar dolar) ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131nan d\u00f6viz kredileri (185.3 milyar dolar) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan kalemler oluyor.<br \/>\nDikkatimi \u00e7eken bir nokta,<br \/>\ny\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerdeki azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n yurti\u00e7inde do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki 45.6 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015fmeden kaynaklanmas\u0131.<br \/>\nBu bana biraz garip geldi. Nedenine bakt\u0131m. Tablonun alt\u0131ndaki dip notunda bu yat\u0131r\u0131m stoklar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonu verilerinin piyasa fiyatlar\u0131 ve kur de\u011fi\u015fimleri dikkate al\u0131narak yeniden de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi belirtiliyordu.<br \/>\nAnla\u015f\u0131lan o ki; y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda reel olarak de\u011fer kaybeden TL ile yap\u0131lan hesaplamalar, yurti\u00e7i do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n de\u011ferlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek net UYP&#8217;de d\u00fc\u015fme oldu\u011fu \u015feklinde bir imaj yaratm\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonundaki net UYP de\u011ferindeki 38.3 milyar dolarl\u0131k azal\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu durumu dikkate alarak yorumlamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SON 15 YILDAK\u0130 GEL\u0130\u015e\u0130M<\/strong><br \/>\nNet UYP&#8217;nin 1996 ila 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerini grafikten izlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<br \/>\nMilli gelire oranla 1996 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 22.6&#8217;dan 2001 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrekli artarak y\u00fczde 43 d\u00fczeyine eri\u015fen net UYP, 2005 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimine girmi\u015f, kriz y\u0131l\u0131 olan 2008 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 saymazsak 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 49.5 oran\u0131na eri\u015fmi\u015f. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 42 \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi bekleniyor.<br \/>\nRakamsal olarak ise 1996 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri, varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan sadece 54.8 milyar dolar fazlayken, 2011 y\u0131l sonunda 323.6 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\nSon y\u0131llarda eri\u015filen y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ise net UYP&#8217;nin bu denli y\u00fcksek rakamsal art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc engellemi\u015f.<br \/>\nKan\u0131mca net UYP&#8217;nin daha fazla eksi bakiye vermesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in iki yol var:<br \/>\nBirincisi, i\u00e7 tasarruflar\u0131 art\u0131rarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenlemek, ikincisi ise Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n rezervlerini art\u0131rmak.<br \/>\n\u00d6zellikle ikinci noktayla ilgili olarak, T\u00fcrkiye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n rezervlerini 200 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltebilseydi, \u015fimdi net UYP 120 milyar dolar daha az olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131, Uluslararas\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Pozisyonu (UYP) verilerini d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131 ile d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan bu verilere g\u00f6re 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11869"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11869\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}