{"id":11836,"date":"2012-02-21T11:19:27","date_gmt":"2012-02-21T09:19:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11836"},"modified":"2012-02-21T11:19:27","modified_gmt":"2012-02-21T09:19:27","slug":"ppk-sonrasi-senaryolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ppk-sonrasi-senaryolar\/","title":{"rendered":"PPK sonras\u0131 senaryolar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p align=\"center\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Yunanistan anla\u015fmas\u0131 nihayet tamamland\u0131. D\u00fcn Euro B\u00f6lgesi Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 14 saatin ard\u0131ndan anla\u015fmaya var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Var\u0131lan anla\u015fma ile Yunanistan\u2019a verilecek 130 milyar euroluk kredi dilimi serbest b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rken, sa\u00e7 t\u0131ra\u015f\u0131 (hair-cut) olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan kesintilerde bankalar yunan tahvillerinde nominal y\u00fczde 53,5 ve reel y\u00fczde 75 indirimi kabul etti. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n tahvil de\u011fi\u015fimine 8 Mart\u2019ta ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde tamamlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yunanistan konusunun burada bitti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz ama en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fmesi muhtemel. Sene ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri a\u00e7\u0131klanan veri ve raporlar Yunanistan g\u00f6lgesinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zetle Yunanistan konusunun en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerin daha dikkatli takip edilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-201265768\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">TCMB s\u00fcrpriz yapar m\u0131?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bug\u00fcn toplanacak olan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun politika faizlerinde bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmesi beklenmiyor. \u00c7o\u011funlu\u011fun g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gecelik faizlerin de de\u011fi\u015ftirilmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oranlar\u0131nda bir miktar indirim yap\u0131larak faiz koridorunun daralt\u0131labilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de olsa ihtimaller aras\u0131nda. TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerine ba\u015flama ihtimali de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bizim beklentilerimiz de bu genel beklentilerle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Fakat al\u0131nacak bu kararlardan ziyade karar sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamada se\u00e7ilecek c\u00fcmleler daha \u00f6nemli. TCMB k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n ve s\u0131cak para ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi durumunda faiz indiriminin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini beyan etmesi ba\u015fta banka hisseleri olmak \u00fczere \u0130MKB\u2019de olumlu reaksiyon verilmesini sa\u011flayabilir. D\u00f6viz al\u0131mlar\u0131 konusuna gelince, sepet kur 2,20\u2019nin \u00fczerindeyken ba\u015flayan m\u00fcdahalelerin ard\u0131ndan, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerine ba\u015flamay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnece\u011fi seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle TCMB bu toplant\u0131da d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerine karar vermese de ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde gerek g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihalelerinin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131 verilebilir. Bu da kurlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. TCMB\u2019nin bu konuda g\u00f6sterge olarak sepet kuru takip etti\u011fini biliyoruz. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda 2,02 civar\u0131nda olan d\u00f6viz sepetinin 2,00 alt\u0131na inmesi durumunda al\u0131mlar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Piyasalara gelince\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Yunanistan kamburunu \u00fczerinden atan piyasalar bir s\u00fcre dinlenmede kalabilir. Hatta g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ana trendi bozmayacak ufak \u00e7apl\u0131 da kar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gelmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmamal\u0131. Fakat ard\u0131ndan makro verilere daha fazla \u00f6nem verilecek ve veri bazl\u0131 hareketler daha \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7eride TCMB d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir veri beklentisi yok. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da ise AB Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve Yunanistan anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fczerine yap\u0131lacak yorumlar takip edilecektir. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\"><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.trTelefon\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\"><br \/>\nTelefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan anla\u015fmas\u0131 nihayet tamamland\u0131. D\u00fcn Euro B\u00f6lgesi Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 14 saatin ard\u0131ndan anla\u015fmaya var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Var\u0131lan anla\u015fma ile Yunanistan\u2019a verilecek 130 milyar euroluk kredi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11836\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}