{"id":11821,"date":"2012-02-20T15:13:29","date_gmt":"2012-02-20T13:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11821"},"modified":"2012-02-20T15:23:40","modified_gmt":"2012-02-20T13:23:40","slug":"bolunuyorlar-mi-yoksa-birlesiyorlar-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bolunuyorlar-mi-yoksa-birlesiyorlar-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar m\u0131 Yoksa Birle\u015fiyorlar m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel krize en cesur tepkiyi veren Amerikan Hazinesi ve Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) oldu. Avrupa, krizin \u00f6n\u00fcnden ko\u015fmak yerine, geli\u015fmelere tepki vermeyi tercih etti. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) hep temkinli davrand\u0131. B\u0131\u00e7ak kemi\u011fe dayanana kadar tepki vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131.<br \/>\nB\u0131\u00e7ak kemi\u011fe dayand\u0131. ECB \u015fimdi FED&#8217;den de daha cesur ad\u0131mlar atmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1 faizle Avrupa bankalar\u0131na istedikleri kadar para verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede piyasaya 500 milyar Euro&#8217;ya yak\u0131n para pompalad\u0131. Ayn\u0131 \u015feyi bu ay\u0131n sonunda da tekrarlayacak. Bu denli cesur \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar dahi yetmeyebiliyor. ECB daha da radikal ad\u0131mlar atmak durumunda kal\u0131yor. &#8220;Bu ad\u0131mlar Euro&#8217;yu kurtar\u0131r m\u0131 yoksa Euro&#8217;nun \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne zemin mi haz\u0131rlar?&#8221; sorusuna \u015fimdiden yan\u0131t vermek zor. Ama, risklerin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kesin.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3472862427\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>AYRI\u015eMA HIZLANIYOR<\/strong><br \/>\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkeleri, zaten birbirlerinden olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 yap\u0131dayd\u0131lar, son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r birbirlerinden daha da farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131lar. Eskiden t\u00fcm Euro kullanan \u00fclkeler A ya da daha y\u00fcksek kredi notuna sahipti. \u015eimdi, CCC ile AAA aras\u0131nda \u00fclkeler var. AAA kredi notuna sahip \u00fclkelerin say\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131.<br \/>\nBu denli farkl\u0131 yap\u0131daki \u00fclkelerin bir tek para politikas\u0131 alt\u0131nda toplanmas\u0131 pratik olarak da teorik olarak da \u00e7ok zor. Zorluklar \u00e7e\u015fitli bi\u00e7imlerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tek bir kural t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin derdine ayn\u0131 anda deva olam\u0131yor.<br \/>\nECB bor\u00e7lanmakta zorlanan \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvillerini ikinci piyasadan al\u0131yor. \u00dclkelerin kredi notu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e, ECB de alabilece\u011fi devlet tahvillerinin A olan not kriterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek zorunda kald\u0131. \u015eimdi, &#8220;\u00e7\u00f6p&#8221; diye nitelenen CCC kredi notuna sahip \u00fclkelerin (Yunanistan) dahi devlet tahvillerini alabiliyor.<br \/>\nYunanistan bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131racak. ECB zaten Yunanistan k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 \u0131skontoyla ald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya girmeden k\u00e2r elde edebilecek ve k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 Euro \u00fclkelerine iade edebilecek. Yani, ECB de pratik olarak yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya girecek, ama girmemi\u015f gibi davranacak. Para politikas\u0131, &#8220;yapm\u0131\u015f gibi&#8221; ya da &#8220;olmu\u015f gibi&#8221; yakla\u015f\u0131mlarla sonu\u00e7 vermez.<br \/>\nSon olarak ECB devlet tahvili d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda teminatlar alarak da bankalara bor\u00e7 vermek istiyor. Ama, \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerdeki bankalar\u0131n elindeki teminat olabilecek varl\u0131klar \u00e7ok farkl\u0131. Tek bir kural \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. ECB \u00fcye \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Almanya (Bundesbank) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerin finansman bonolar\u0131n\u0131 teminata kabul ederken, \u0130spanya (Bank of Spain) konut kredilerini teminata kabul edebilecek. ECB giderek teminat portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn kalitesinin a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na g\u00f6z yummak durumunda kal\u0131yor. Bunlar bir parasal birli\u011fin kald\u0131rabilece\u011fi uygulamalar de\u011fil. Birle\u015feceklerine, ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TEK T\u0130P ELB\u0130SE ARTIK OLMUYOR<\/strong><br \/>\nEuro i\u00e7indeki \u00fclkeler ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n makro ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 daha da rahats\u0131z edecek boyutlara geliyor.<br \/>\nGe\u00e7mi\u015fte ECB politikas\u0131 Almanya i\u00e7in \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131yd\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131rken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2 oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde Almanya&#8217;da enflasyon y\u00fczde 1.6 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u015eimdi i\u015fler tersine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. ECB politikas\u0131 Almanya i\u00e7in \u00e7ok gev\u015fek. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zland\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, tarihinin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyinde, ama enflasyon Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde ortalama y\u00fczde 2.7 iken, Almanya&#8217;da y\u00fczde 2.5 civar\u0131nda. Almanlar i\u00e7in enflasyon y\u00fcksek.<br \/>\nTek tip elbise (tek para politikas\u0131) Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;ne uymamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ECB tek \u00e7at\u0131 alt\u0131nda (Euro i\u00e7inde) birden fazla para politikas\u0131 uygulama gibi bir maceraya giriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m Euro&#8217;yu kurtar\u0131r m\u0131 yoksa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne zemin mi haz\u0131rlar? G\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel krize en cesur tepkiyi veren Amerikan Hazinesi ve Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) oldu. Avrupa, krizin \u00f6n\u00fcnden ko\u015fmak yerine, geli\u015fmelere tepki vermeyi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}