{"id":11818,"date":"2012-02-20T15:22:47","date_gmt":"2012-02-20T13:22:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11818"},"modified":"2012-02-20T15:22:56","modified_gmt":"2012-02-20T13:22:56","slug":"yunanistan-arjantin-olabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yunanistan-arjantin-olabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yunanistan Arjantin Olabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta Bloomberg HT&#8217;den arkada\u015flar, Arjantin ile Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran bir grafik \u00e7izerek bana yorumlar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z diye ricada bulundular.<br \/>\nTelevizyon yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrati genelde fazlad\u0131r. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 dard\u0131r. Bu nedenle programda o anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerimi dile getirebildim. Ancak daha sonra konu \u00fczerinde biraz daha detayl\u0131 durunca yeni fikirler de olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<br \/>\nBunlar\u0131 sizlerle de payla\u015fmak istedim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1711506812\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>BENZERL\u0130KLER\u0130 FAZLA<\/strong><br \/>\n2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda krize giren Yunanistan ile 1998 y\u0131l\u0131nda sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flayan Arjantin&#8217;in benzer y\u00f6nleri olduk\u00e7a fazla.<br \/>\n\u25a0 \u0130kisinin de d\u00f6viz kuru rejimi rekabet\u00e7i bir yap\u0131y\u0131 yeniden olu\u015fturmaya olanak tan\u0131mad\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n temelinde bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc kapat\u0131lamayan kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 vard\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan sa\u011flanan kaynaklarla finanse edildi.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Her iki \u00fclkenin de bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kriz kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Arjantin Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n rezervleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fildi. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n rezervleri ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n elinde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131f\u0131rd\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 IMF ya da di\u011fer d\u0131\u015f finans\u00f6rlerin kamu harcamalar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131 talepleri halk\u0131n tepkisi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 \u00d6zel bankalarla yap\u0131lan ve &#8220;sa\u00e7 t\u0131ra\u015f\u0131&#8221; diye adland\u0131r\u0131lan mevcut bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n silinmesi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri uzad\u0131k\u00e7a uzad\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Yunanistan&#8217;da ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet, Arjantin&#8217;de ise ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z maliye bakan\u0131 (Domingo Cavallo) durumu kurtarmak i\u00e7in i\u015fba\u015f\u0131na getirildi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FARKLI Y\u00d6NLER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki \u00fclkeyi birbirinden ay\u0131ran en \u00f6nemli fark, kan\u0131mca Arjantin&#8217;in AB ya da Euro B\u00f6lgesi gibi bir birli\u011fe dahil olmamas\u0131yd\u0131.<br \/>\nKararlar\u0131 kendisinin vermesi, belli kurallara ba\u011fl\u0131 IMF istekleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tavr\u0131n\u0131 belli etme \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve demokratik yap\u0131s\u0131 Yunanistan&#8217;dan farkl\u0131yd\u0131.<br \/>\nNe var ki Arjantin d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve politik \u00e7\u0131karlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir \u00fclke de\u011fildi. Kolayl\u0131kla feda edilebilecek ve bundan da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kitlenin fazla etkilenmesinin beklenmedi\u011fi bir konumdayd\u0131.<br \/>\nAyr\u0131ca da Arjantinli yetkililer kendi vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 paralar\u0131n g\u00fcn\u00fcn birinde geri gelece\u011fine inan\u0131yorlard\u0131.<br \/>\nBir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli fark da, Arjantin ekonomisinin \u00fcretime dayal\u0131 bir altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerine sahipti.<br \/>\nYunanistan ise turizm ve gemicilik d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olmayan bir ekonomiydi.<br \/>\nArjantin&#8217;in borcu 180 milyar dolard\u0131. Yunanistan ise bunun 2.5 misli fazla bir bor\u00e7la krize yakaland\u0131.<br \/>\nSonunda Arjantin kriz ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ktan 10 \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem (2.5 y\u0131l) sonra, art\u0131k b\u0131\u00e7ak kemi\u011fe dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bor\u00e7lar\u0131ndan 100 milyar dolar\u0131 &#8220;\u00f6demiyorum&#8221; dedi.<br \/>\n\u00dclke i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir karga\u015fa ya\u015fand\u0131. Aradan ancak 1.5 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131 de\u011ferlere ula\u015ft\u0131. \u0130vmesini art\u0131rarak bug\u00fcnlere kadar geldi<br \/>\nOlan Arjantin&#8217;e para kapt\u0131ran yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara oldu. Kimse Arjantin&#8217;e para vermek istemedi.<br \/>\nH\u00e2l\u00e2 da vermiyor.<br \/>\nGrafikte dikkati \u00e7eken bir nokta da, Yunanistan&#8217;da b\u0131\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n kemi\u011fe dayanmas\u0131na az bir zaman kalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc vermesi.<br \/>\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin di\u011fer \u00fcyeleri &#8220;Art\u0131k buradan \u00e7\u0131k, git&#8221; derlerse, Arjantin olay\u0131ndan hareketle, Yunanistan durumu iki y\u0131lda toparlar. Tabii bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 70&#8217;ini \u00f6demiyorum demesi de \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta Bloomberg HT&#8217;den arkada\u015flar, Arjantin ile Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran bir grafik \u00e7izerek bana yorumlar m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z diye ricada bulundular. Televizyon yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrati genelde fazlad\u0131r. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme aral\u0131\u011f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11818","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11818"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11818\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11818"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11818"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11818"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}