{"id":11803,"date":"2012-02-20T10:27:41","date_gmt":"2012-02-20T08:27:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11803"},"modified":"2012-02-20T16:15:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-20T14:15:00","slug":"bu-iki-gun-cok-kritik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bu-iki-gun-cok-kritik\/","title":{"rendered":"Bu iki g\u00fcn \u00e7ok kritik\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta piyasalarda dinlenme d\u00f6nemi olarak adland\u0131rabilece\u011fimiz bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fan\u0131rken, haftan\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru Yunanistan konusunda olumlu beklentilerin artmas\u0131yla piyasalarda pozitif bir hava olu\u015ftu. \u0130MKB ise haftan\u0131n son iki g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen al\u0131mlarla bu olumlu beklentilere kat\u0131ld\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci seansta ba\u015flayan ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc de devam eden al\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 endeksin yukar\u0131da olu\u015fan diren\u00e7leri a\u015fma niyetinde oldu\u011funun i\u015fareti oldu. Bug\u00fcn ba\u015flayacak ve yar\u0131n da devam edecek Eurogroup toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan Yunanistan konusunda beklenen kararlar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n ilk olarak olumlu reaksiyon vermesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn piyasalar toplant\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ak\u015fam saatleri \u00f6ncesinde Avrupa\u2019dan liderlerden gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalara odaklanacakt\u0131r. Olumsuz bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmazsa \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklentileri piyasalar\u0131n bug\u00fcn de pozitif seyretmesini sa\u011flayabilir. <\/span><\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-315071453\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Eurogroup \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc sa\u011flayabilecek mi?<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Yunanistan krizinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Eurogroup toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bug\u00fcn TS\u0130 18:00\u2019da ba\u015flayacak toplant\u0131dan Yunanistan\u2019a 130 milyar euroluk ikinci kredi diliminin ve bor\u00e7 kesintisi ile ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Bunun yan\u0131nda bor\u00e7 kesintilerinin (haircut) bu toplant\u0131da neticelendirilmesi, kredi diliminin mart ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak AB Zirvesi\u2019ne b\u0131rak\u0131labilece\u011fi de s\u00f6ylentiler aras\u0131nda. E\u011fer bu ikinci ihtimal ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olursa piyasalar \u015fubat ay\u0131n\u0131n geri kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 negatif ve \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek volatilite ile ge\u00e7irecek demektir. Bu durumda bir s\u00fcre nakitte kalmak faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Fakat ba\u015fta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn bu toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklentisi daha y\u00fcksek. Umut ediyoruz ki, bu beklentiler bir an \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir ve Yunanistan konusu en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fer. Fakat a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse beklentilerin aksine bizler, haftalard\u0131r vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczere Nisan ay\u0131nda Yunanistan\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde AB\u2019nin t\u00fcm inisiyatifi Yunanistan\u2019a devredecek b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. 130 milyar euroluk krediye tamam dense bile bile bu kredinin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 zamana yay\u0131labilir ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Yunanistan\u2019daki reformlar\u0131n i\u015flerli\u011fi takip edilebilir. Bu sayede se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 kurulacak h\u00fck\u00fcmete kar\u015f\u0131 da yapt\u0131r\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc elde edilmi\u015f olur. Bu nedenle bu toplant\u0131dan \u201cYunanistan yapmas\u0131 gerekenlerin hepsini yapt\u0131, AB olarak biz de taahh\u00fctlerimizin hepsini birden yerine getirelim\u201d \u015feklinde bir karar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bizce \u00e7ok iyimser bir senaryo.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Para musluklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lmaya devam ediliyor<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Her hafta d\u00fcnyan\u0131n farkl\u0131 bir yerinden parasal geni\u015fleme haberleri al\u0131yoruz. Farkl\u0131 uygulamalarla olsa da hepsinde nihai hedef piyasadaki para miktar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek olmak. Son haber haftasonunda \u00c7in\u2019den geldi. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim yapt\u0131. Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131 \u015funu ifade ediyor. Bankalar toplad\u0131klar\u0131 mevduat\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131na zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak yat\u0131rmak zorunda. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131lan tutara \u00fclkeler baz\u0131nda uygulamalar farkl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere merkez bankalar\u0131 ya piyasa faizinin alt\u0131nda bir nema veriyorlar ya da hi\u00e7 nemaland\u0131rm\u0131yorlar. Bu durum bankalar\u0131n toplad\u0131klar\u0131 mevduattan sa\u011flayacaklar\u0131 kar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir mekanizma. Merkez bankalar\u0131 da bu sayede piyasadaki likiditeyi ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 denetleyebiliyorlar. \u00a0Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131nda indirim yap\u0131lmas\u0131 bankalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131nda duran kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bu sayede daha fazla kredi kulland\u0131rabilmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00d6zetle piyasaya ek likidite sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f oluyor. Bu indirim \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikinci indirim olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinin politikas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin devam etmesinden yana kullanmas\u0131 piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu. AB\u2019deki resesyon, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda kimse bu likiditelerin uzun vadede enflasyona neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmez, bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara tavsiyemiz k\u0131sa vadede bu t\u00fcr likidite operasyonlar\u0131ndan sonra \u00e7ok uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemeleri ve ya\u015fanan olumlu havadan yararlanmalar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6z s\u0131ras\u0131 TCMB\u2019de<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 14:00\u2019da TCMB y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. Toplant\u0131dan politika faizlerinde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. Fakat k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte pozitif seyrin ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi ile s\u0131cak para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 durumunda ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerde faiz indirimi yap\u0131labilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yer alabilir. Bunun yan\u0131nda d\u00f6vizdeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften oldu\u011fu gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften de rahats\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti\u011fimiz TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz al\u0131m ihaleleri konusunda da bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131 bizleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmayacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle d\u00f6vizde a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu olanlar\u0131n bu toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kacak kararlar\u0131 takip etmesi faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bu haftaya dair<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-209864696\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD piyasalar\u0131 Ba\u015fkanlar G\u00fcn\u00fc dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kapal\u0131. Haftan\u0131n genelinde ABD taraf\u0131nda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ikinci el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 haricinde \u00f6nemli bir veri bulunmuyor. \u00a0Haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi Yunanistan, bu konuya de\u011finmi\u015ftik. Bunun yan\u0131nda bu hafta Almanya ve AB\u2019den \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131 ile 10:30 ve 11:00\u2019da gelecek PMI Hizmet ve \u0130malat endekslerini ile i\u00e7eride Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc TCMB faiz karar\u0131 ile Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 14:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 takip edece\u011fiz.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">20-24 \u015eubat tarihleri aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veriler i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marbasarge.com\/HVT_20_24_Subat.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z: \u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u0130MKB\u2019ye gelince<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Teknik g\u00f6stergeler ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n son iki g\u00fcn\u00fcnde olumluya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u0130MKB 100\u2019de 61,500 \u00fczerindeki hareket ilk etapta 63,000 ard\u0131ndan da 64,500\u2019e kadar olabilecek yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flamas\u0131na neden olabilir. \u00a0Bu nedenle yeniden 60,500 alt\u0131na sarkma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n riskinin y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fakat yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fimiz Yunanistan ve TCMB konusundaki geli\u015fmelerin haftan\u0131n ilk iki g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok sert dalgalanmalara neden olabilece\u011fi de unutulmal\u0131. Bu nedenle yap\u0131lan her i\u015flemde bir stop loss bulundurulmas\u0131 bizce bir zorunluluk. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1321121210\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir hafta olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle\u2026<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\"><span style=\"color: #800000\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #800000\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #800000;font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\"> Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta piyasalarda dinlenme d\u00f6nemi olarak adland\u0131rabilece\u011fimiz bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fan\u0131rken, haftan\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru Yunanistan konusunda olumlu beklentilerin artmas\u0131yla piyasalarda pozitif bir hava olu\u015ftu. \u0130MKB ise&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11803\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}