{"id":11788,"date":"2012-02-20T09:22:40","date_gmt":"2012-02-20T07:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11788"},"modified":"2012-02-20T09:22:50","modified_gmt":"2012-02-20T07:22:50","slug":"krizin-gercek-cozumu-izlanda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/krizin-gercek-cozumu-izlanda\/","title":{"rendered":"Krizin Ger\u00e7ek \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc: \u0130zlanda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kurtulu\u015fu da \u0130zlanda modelinden ge\u00e7iyor. Bor\u00e7lar k\u00fclliyen silinecek ve \u00f6denebilecek boyuta inecek, alacakl\u0131lar birer s\u00fcrahi so\u011fuk su ile yetinecekler, sonra s\u0131ra di\u011ferlerine de gelecek. K\u0131sa vadede Kom\u015fu i\u00e7in ba\u015fka bir kurtulu\u015f yolu yok. S\u00fcreyi uzatmak asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z hem riskli hem de zarar miktar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3884620751\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Haberi duydunuz mu? Fitch, \u0130zlanda\u2019n\u0131n kredi notunu BB+\u2019dan BBB-\u2018ye yani \u201cyat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclke\u201d seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f! Halbuki 2008 finansal krizinde ilk ifl\u00e2s bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eken \u00fclkeydi \u0130zlanda. Kredi notu \u201c\u00e7\u00f6p\u201d seviyesine indirilen bir \u00fclkeydi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ada \u00fclkesi. 320 bin ki\u015filik \u00fclkede ya\u015fananlar bizim 2001 krizinde de beterdi neredeyse. Para birimi Iceland Koruna\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri Kas\u0131m 2007\u2019de 60 seviyesinden, Aral\u0131k 2008\u2019de 149\u2019a kadar de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f. \u0130zlanda borsas\u0131 y\u00fczde 90 de\u011fer yitirmi\u015fti. 2011 tahmini GSMH\u2019si 14.1 milyar dolar olan \u00fclke (2008\u2019de 12.1); IMF ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k program sonras\u0131nda \u201cd\u00fcze \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z IMF\u2019nin yapt\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u0130zlandal\u0131lar\u0131n att\u0131klar\u0131 ad\u0131mlard\u0131 \u00fclkeyi yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyeye \u00e7\u0131karan. Neler mi, yap\u0131ld\u0131? 2008\u2019de bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131 50 milyar euro seviyesindeymi\u015f. (8.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k gayrisafi milli has\u0131laya sahip bir \u00fclkeye hangi \u2018ak\u0131l\u2019 bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bor\u00e7 verir? Sanki Yunanistan\u2019daki durum \u00e7ok farkl\u0131!) Kriz \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra iflas noktas\u0131na gelen \u00fclkenin 3 b\u00fcy\u00fck bankas\u0131 Giltner, Kaupthing ve sonras\u0131nda da en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Landsbanki, Iclandic Financial Supervisory Authority FME (\u0130zlanda\u2019n\u0131n TMSF\u2019si) taraf\u0131ndan \u201cdevletle\u015ftirilmi\u015f\u201d. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi ve borsada i\u015flemler durdurulmu\u015f ve yabanc\u0131 para i\u015flemleri devlet kontrol\u00fcne al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. \u0130zlanda Merkez Bankas\u0131, yabanc\u0131 para \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan i\u015flemlerdeki tek otorite ve yetkili k\u0131l\u0131nm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Bankalara sermaye benzeri bor\u00e7 vermi\u015f ana alacakl\u0131lar (senior bond holders) paralar\u0131n\u0131n ancak y\u00fczde 7\u2019lerini kurtarabilmi\u015f, \u0130zlanda bankalar\u0131n\u0131n verdikleri y\u00fcksek faizin cazibesine kap\u0131lan \u0130ngiliz ve Hollandal\u0131 mevduat sahiplerinin alacaklar\u0131 da yap\u0131lan halk oylamas\u0131 ile adeta \u2018i\u00e7 edilince\u2019 (Icesave) toplam bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc bir anda \u201chafiflemi\u015f\u201d oldu!<\/p>\n<p>Bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc hafifleyen (finansal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kriz \u00f6ncesinin 5\u2019te 1\u2019ine inmi\u015f), paras\u0131 deval\u00fce olan \u0130zlanda i\u00e7in ekonomiyi; onca b\u00fcy\u00fck felaketten sonra; ray\u0131na oturtmak daha kolay oldu. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSMH\u2019ye oran\u0131 2007\u2019deki y\u00fczde 6.5 idi. 2011\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 0.5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve hatta 2012\u2019de cari fazla vermesi bekleniyor. Kamu borcunun GSMH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n da 2013 sonunda y\u00fczde 65\u2019e gerileyece\u011fi hesaplan\u0131yor. AB \u00fcyesi olmayan ve g\u00f6rece olarak AB bor\u00e7 krizinden \u00f6nce kendi krizini ya\u015fay\u0131p, \u2018soka\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc -bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 silme suretiyle- temizleyen\u2019 \u0130zlanda\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2-2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm k\u00fcresel finansal krizin ger\u00e7ek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc \u0130zlanda (asl\u0131nda bizim de 2001\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z) y\u00f6nteminden ge\u00e7iyor. (Denebilir ki \u0130zlanda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, bor\u00e7lar\u0131 da azd\u0131, verdikleri zarar dev ekonomilerde pek de \u201chissedilmedi\u201d. (Siz onu bir de \u0130zlanda\u2019da para kapt\u0131ranlara sorun.) B\u00f6ylesi radikal bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm AB (ve hatta ABD) i\u00e7in \u00fcretilmedik\u00e7e i\u00e7inde bulunulan krizin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc hayli zor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan verilen likidite bu \u201cac\u0131 ilac\u0131\u201d i\u00e7me zaman\u0131n\u0131 geciktirmekten ba\u015fka bir i\u015fe yaram\u0131yor. Al\u0131n size Japonya\u2019n\u0131n durumu. 1990\u2019daki krizden halen daha \u00e7\u0131kabilmi\u015f de\u011filler. B\u00fcy\u00fcme yok, kamu borcu GSMH\u2019nin 2 kat\u0131 (y\u00fczde 200, s\u0131ra bir ara Japonya\u2019ya da gelecek gibi&#8230;) ve bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc durgunluktan kurtulamad\u0131lar! Benzer bir tehlike ABD\u2019yi ve AB\u2019yi de bekliyor! \u00c7ok uza\u011fa gitmeden, Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kurtulu\u015fu da \u0130zlanda modelinden ge\u00e7iyor. Bor\u00e7lar k\u00fclliyen silinecek ve \u00f6denebilecek boyuta inecek, alacakl\u0131lar birer s\u00fcrahi so\u011fuk su ile yetinecekler, sonra s\u0131ra di\u011ferlerine de gelecek! Ba\u015fka bir kurtulu\u015f; en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede; yolu yok. S\u00fcreyi uzatmak asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z hem riskli hem de zarar miktar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor! AB\u2019nin politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 bunu g\u00f6rseler bile \u015fimdilik g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor, zaman\u0131n tedavi edici g\u00fcc\u00fcne g\u00fcveniyorlar. Bakal\u0131m kim hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130MKB 62 bin puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Gelelim bu haftan\u0131n piyasa beklentilerine&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4024188006\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yukar\u0131dakilerin tamam\u0131n\u0131 unutun! K\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131dakilerin hi\u00e7biri piyasalar\u0131 ilgilendirmiyor. Hafta sonu Kom\u015fu\u2019daki \u2018atanm\u0131\u015f h\u00fck\u00fcmet\u2019 yeni \u00f6nlemleri kabul etmi\u015f, IMF\u2019de 13 milyar dolar ile \u201ckurtarma harek\u00e2t\u0131na\u201d katk\u0131da bulunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda; uzun zamand\u0131r beklenen; Yunanistan meselesinin \u201cmutlu sonla\u201d bitti\u011fi haberi gelebilir. Piyasalar\u0131n gergin ge\u00e7en bir haftadan sonra bu haberi yeni y\u00fckseli\u015fler i\u00e7in kullanacaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek zor de\u011fil. Bu hafta \u0130MKB 100\u2019de bir s\u00fcredir \u201cbeklenen\u201d 62.025 seviyesinin g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali y\u00fcksek! Bu seviye teknik olarak \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 seviyesi. A\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda zorlan\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Olaki a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131, ilk hedef 63.900 seviyesi olaca\u011fa benziyor! 62.025 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131lamaz ise ya\u015fanacak bir k\u00e2r realizasyonu ilk a\u015famada Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 60.034 ile 60.257 aras\u0131ndaki bo\u015flu\u011fun kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta izlenmesi gereken \u201cendikat\u00f6r\u201d euro\/dolar paritesi olacakt\u0131r! Yunanistan haberleriyle haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde 1.3290-1.3310 seviyelerinin test edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Sonras\u0131nda da 1.3440 seviyesi s\u00f6z konusu. Ancak ilk e\u015fiklerin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 hatta hi\u00e7 ziyaret dahi edilmeden 1.3020 seviyelerindeki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inilecek olur ise euroda \u00f6nemli bir \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d hareketi ba\u015flayacak demektir ki bu durum ba\u015fta borsalar ve emtia olmak \u00fczere varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131nda \u201csinirli\u201d bir havan\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131na sebep olabilir!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kurtulu\u015fu da \u0130zlanda modelinden ge\u00e7iyor. Bor\u00e7lar k\u00fclliyen silinecek ve \u00f6denebilecek boyuta inecek, alacakl\u0131lar birer s\u00fcrahi so\u011fuk su ile yetinecekler, sonra s\u0131ra di\u011ferlerine de gelecek.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11788\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}