{"id":1177,"date":"2011-06-07T16:01:37","date_gmt":"2011-06-07T13:01:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1177"},"modified":"2011-06-07T20:48:31","modified_gmt":"2011-06-07T17:48:31","slug":"bir-zamanlar-amerika","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bir-zamanlar-amerika\/","title":{"rendered":"Bir Zamanlar Amerika"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/omerdemir.jpg\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1181 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/omerdemir.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"91\" height=\"142\" \/><\/a>Bu d\u00fcnyada hi\u00e7bir\u015fey baki de\u011fil ,her\u015fey de\u011fi\u015fken ve hercai. Bir zamanlar d\u00fcnya liderli\u011fini elinde tutan \u00fclkelerin durumlar\u0131 da son zamanlarda hi\u00e7 i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Keza bir zamanlar bor\u00e7 i\u00e7inde k\u0131vranan \u00fclkelerde ,\u015faha kalkm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6rne\u011fin ;D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018\u2019Yeni D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi \u2018\u2018isimli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Dolar\u0131n d\u00fcnya finans sistemi i\u00e7indeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n toplam d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki pay\u0131 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda %71 iken 2009\u2019da %62\u2019ye geriledi halen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc % 60 l\u0131k dilimden y\u0131l y\u0131l d\u00fc\u015ferek 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yerini \u00c7in para birimi Yuan ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ortak para birimi Euro\u2019ya b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Euro\u2019nun toplam d\u00f6viz rezervleri i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda %18,3 iken 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda %27,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. IMF paras\u0131 olan SDR&#8217;nin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinden dolay\u0131 art\u0131k ortak para birimi olarak kullan\u0131lma ihtimalide ak\u0131llara getiriyor . Rapora g\u00f6re;Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar olan d\u00f6nemde ortalama %4,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %2,3 olacak. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimdeki pay\u0131 %36\u2019dan %45\u2019e y\u00fckselecek. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re , 2025\u2019ten sonraki y\u0131llarda k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 BRIC \u00fclkeleri Rusya , Endonezya, Hindistan, G\u00fcney Kore, \u00c7in ve Brezilya\u2019dan olu\u015fan 6 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkenin sa\u011flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Alternatif para birimi aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in para birimi Yuan\u2019dan da bahsediliyor. \u00c7in ,halen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkesi durumunda ve 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibariyle d\u00f6viz rezervleri 2,9 trilyon dolar d\u00fczeyinde bulunuyor. Birde \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, yuan\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 para birimi olmas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek \u00fczere off shore yuan piyasas\u0131 kurulmas\u0131 gibi giri\u015fimlerde bulunmas\u0131da hamleleri aras\u0131nda. ABD\u2019nin mevcut b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Mili gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n %10 \u2018a yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ,bor\u00e7-milli gelir oran\u0131n\u0131n %100\u2018e vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde bor\u00e7lar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi ve stagflasyon riski ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olu\u015fu kayg\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin son ay\u0131na girerken, D\u00fcnya\u2019da kriz sonras\u0131 ivme kazanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir yava\u015flama hissediliyor. Orta Do\u011fu ve MENA \u00fclkelerindeki belirsizlik ile , PIIGS krizi, Japonya\u2019daki deprem sonras\u0131 gelen k\u00f6t\u00fc veriler ve t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelerin yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131lar. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 k\u00fcrede ya\u015fanan belirsizlikleride g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar bile. Mesela UBS \u2018in 2011 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %3.9\u2019dan %3.6\u2019ye indirmesi ve ard\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 olan Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n 2011 i\u00e7in \u2018\u2019k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini \u2018\u2019 %4.8\u2019den %4.3\u2019e indirmi\u015f olmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel rahatlama d\u00f6nemine beklenenden daha ge\u00e7 girece\u011fimizin yada h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin halk \u00fczerinde daha uzun s\u00fcre kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131 uyulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi. OECD tahminlerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda ekonomik gidi\u015fat\u0131n bir yandan &#8216;daha y\u00fcksek oranda kendi kendini toparlama yolunda&#8217; olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, y\u00fckselen emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ve ABD ve Japonya&#8217;da ki kamu finansman\u0131n\u0131n ekonomileri zorlanmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e ve bor\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm k\u00fcreyi &#8216;ciddi boyutta bir stagflasyona sokabilece\u011fini&#8217; vurgulad\u0131. Yani yava\u015fta olsa ekonomik toparlanma devam ederken ama bir yandan da enflasyon da y\u00fckselirken faiz y\u00fckseltmenin do\u011fru politika ad\u0131m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc OECD benimsiyor. OECD\u2019ye g\u00f6re ; Kanada, \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Norve\u00e7 gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren kurum, BRIC \u00fclkelerinden Brezilya, \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin faiz y\u00fckseltilerek kur frenlenmesi yarat\u0131larak engellenmesini \u00f6neriyor. Japonya&#8217;n\u0131n ise deprem nedeniyle negatif seyreden enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131n pozitif y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015finceye kadar faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyor OECD.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3434356196\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Almanya Euro\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131karsa \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmam<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00f6zler Ekonomist Dennis Gartman\u2019a ait. Bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n Yunanistan, \u0130talya, Portekiz,\u0130spanya ve \u0130rlanda \u0301dan olu\u015fan PIIGS \u00fclkelerindeki geli\u015fmeleri takip ettiklerini, ancak bunu yaparak ger\u00e7ek hikayeyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyip ekliyor Almanya\u2019n\u0131n herkesin faturas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6demekten b\u0131k\u0131p usand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortada, 20 y\u0131l \u00f6nce Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 Almanya birle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in milyarlarca dolar \u00f6dediklerini belirterek, \u015fimdi de \u0130talyanlar, Yunanl\u0131lar ve di\u011fer PIIGS \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in \u00f6deme yapmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu durumdan giderek daha \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum&#8221; diyor. Aylard\u0131r yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalardan pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise se\u00e7im d\u00f6nemine girdi\u011fimiz \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde olumsuz etkiler hemen seyredilebiliyor. \u015eimdiye kadar y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle iyi not alan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine artan cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Se\u00e7imlerden \u00f6ncede T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin artan cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ilgili somut ad\u0131m atamayaca\u011f\u0131da ortada. Son (PPK) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmayan T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin de, s\u0131cak para sorunu nedeniyle ve se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasada \u2018\u2018s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019\u2019 ve \u2018\u2019kredi frenlemeye\u2019\u2019 politikas\u0131na devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc piyasalara hakim.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6mer DEM\u0130R<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu d\u00fcnyada hi\u00e7bir\u015fey baki de\u011fil ,her\u015fey de\u011fi\u015fken ve hercai. Bir zamanlar d\u00fcnya liderli\u011fini elinde tutan \u00fclkelerin durumlar\u0131 da son zamanlarda hi\u00e7 i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Keza&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}