{"id":11739,"date":"2012-02-18T09:26:23","date_gmt":"2012-02-18T07:26:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11739"},"modified":"2012-02-18T09:26:31","modified_gmt":"2012-02-18T07:26:31","slug":"yeniden-dengelenme-ve-yumusak-inis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeniden-dengelenme-ve-yumusak-inis\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeniden Dengelenme ve Yumu\u015fak \u0130ni\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Her toplum kend folklorunu yarat\u0131r. Mesela New York \u015fehrinde ya\u015fayanlar kanalizasyonlarda timsah dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in alafranga tuvaletlerin \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u00fcneyerek def-i hacet ederler. Maldiv Adalar\u0131n\u2019da ya\u015fayanlar her sene t\u00f6renlerle bambulardan dev bir u\u00e7ak maketi yapar.\u00a0 \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f esnas\u0131nda aday d\u00fc\u015fen ve yedikleri d\u00f6rt pilotun lezzetini unutamad\u0131klar\u0131 u\u00e7ak kazas\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Tanr\u0131 Bongo-Bongo\u2019ya adak sunarlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1412481688\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de dini muhafazakarlar faizin enflasyona yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr, her gece Y\u00fcksek Faiz Lobisi onlara tasallut edecek diye yast\u0131k alt\u0131nda han\u00e7erle uyurlar.\u00a0 Ankara\u2019da ya\u015fayanlar da kendilerine folklorik t\u00f6renler uydurmu\u015ftur. Bunlara yeniden dengelenme ayini ve yumu\u015fak ini\u015f vaftizi ad\u0131 verilir. Yeniden dengelenme ve yumu\u015fak ini\u015f, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde adeta mehdinin geli\u015fi gibi dinsel bir anlam kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ekonomi \u00f6nce yeniden dengelenecek, sonra yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yapacak.\u00a0 T\u00fcm dertler bitecek, nurlu yar\u0131nlara vas\u0131l olunacakt\u0131r.\u00a0 Halbuki, empirik verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, yeniden dengelenme imkans\u0131z, yumu\u015fak ini\u015f ise ge\u00e7mi\u015fte hi\u00e7 rastlanmam\u0131\u015f bir olayd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131 tan\u0131mlayal\u0131m \u00f6nce.\u00a0 Yeniden dengelenme makro-politikalar sayesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamadan kompozisyonunun i\u00e7 talepten ihracata kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0 Yumu\u015fak ini\u015fin tan\u0131m\u0131 m\u00fcritten m\u00fcrite de\u011fi\u015fir, ama \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n\u201d \u00e7aresi olarak g\u00f6rebiliriz. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede m\u00fclayim bir yava\u015flama ile enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir patikaya oturacak, ard\u0131ndan yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme canlanacakt\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ekte\u00a0 bunlardan hi\u00e7 biri olmayacakt\u0131r.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye bu kafayla ebediyen ithalat ve d\u0131\u015f finansmana mahkum bir ekonomidir. Hi\u00e7 bir zaman yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yapamaz. Ya mabad\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne yere \u00e7ak\u0131l\u0131r kafa-g\u00f6z kanarken di\u015fsiz a\u011fz\u0131yla \u201cTeyet ge\u00e7ti, teyet ge\u00e7ti\u201d diye ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131r. Ya da\u00a0 b\u00fct\u00fcn di\u011fer dengeleri bozan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015flar, hep bir a\u011f\u0131zdan \u201cMucize, \u00c7in\u2019i ge\u00e7tik\u201d diye zafer \u00e7\u0131\u011fl\u0131klar\u0131 atar\u0131z.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fin do\u011frusu, AKP d\u00f6nemiyle daha \u00f6nceki 10 y\u0131llar aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131 SADECE YARIM PUANDIR.\u00a0 AKP\u2019den \u00f6nce ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re %3.5-4 aras\u0131nda ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme tutturan T\u00fcrkiye, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u00e7elik iradesi, sars\u0131lmaz inanc\u0131 ve yan\u0131ndaki kadrolar\u0131n dirayetli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sayesinde bu oran\u0131 %4.5 civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Son iki haftada yeniden dengelenme \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r bir dayak yedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6nce o tezi k\u0131saca \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcp yumu\u015fak ini\u015fe ge\u00e7eyim.\u00a0 \u00d6ncelikle, ithal i\u00e7erik oran\u0131 %51.5 olan bir ihracat yap\u0131s\u0131yla yeniden dengelenme imkans\u0131zd\u0131r, ama hadi neyse. TCMB\u2019nin post-modern para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda yatan gerek\u00e7elerden biridir yeniden dengelenme.\u00a0 \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in TL\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na izin verilmi\u015f, faizeri art\u0131rmak yerine indirim yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, bunun i\u00e7 talep \u00fczerindkei geni\u015fletici etkisi ise munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar y\u00fckseltilerek telafi edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Politikan\u0131n ihracat \u00fcst\u00fcnde olumlu etkisi inkar edilemez, ama di\u011fer alanlarda \u201c0\u201d \u00e7ekti.\u00a0 \u00dcstelik ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enflasyonun %11\u2019ler civar\u0131na t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 gibi a\u011f\u0131r bir bedel \u00f6dedik.\u00a0 Ama, TCMB yolundan d\u00f6nmedi ve inatla y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda yeniden dengelenmenin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.\u00a0 Aral\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l 7 milyar temposundan 5.5 milyar dolar inmesi derhal Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcn zekas\u0131n\u0131n zaferi olarak trib\u00fcnlerden yo\u011fun alk\u0131\u015f ald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Halbuki,\u00a0 anketlere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Aral\u0131k\u2019da elde edilen \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n AB\u2019den gelen g\u00fcven \u015foku ve TCMB\u2019nin ortalama faizleri %12\u2019lere kadar y\u00fckseltmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Bu etki Ocak ve \u015eubat aylar\u0131nda da devam eder, ama ard\u0131ndan cari a\u00e7\u0131k yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flayacak.\u00a0 Birincisi, \u015fans yan\u0131m\u0131zda de\u011fil, \u0130ran-Bat\u0131 gerginli\u011fi ve G\u00fcney Sudan, Suriye gibi\u00a0 petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerde ya\u015fanan sorunlardan dolay\u0131 petrolde arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Brent bu hafta\u00a0 120 dolar.<\/p>\n<p>Halbuki, TCMB b\u00fct\u00fcn hesab\u0131n\u0131 Brent 110 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcne yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130kincisi bu k\u00f6\u015feden 15 ayd\u0131r TCMB\u2019ye anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m gibi, kur ihracat\u0131 belirleyen parametrelerden sadece biri.\u00a0 Di\u011feri ise d\u0131\u015f talep i\u00e7 talep aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 talep belki yava\u015fl\u0131yor, ama d\u0131\u015f talep daha h\u0131zl\u0131 geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, son 3 ayda ihracatta belirgin bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\u00a0 Bu yava\u015flama devam edecek \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc, TL de\u011fer kazand\u0131k\u00e7a kur avantaj\u0131 da kayboluyor.\u00a0 \u00dcstelik asgari \u00fccrete gelen zam ve enflasyonun gelecek aylarda %11\u2019i a\u015fmas\u0131 ile ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n 2011 boyunca elde etti\u011fi t\u00fcm kur avantaj\u0131 geri verilecek.\u00a0 Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ece\u011fini dair bahse girerim.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/yeniden-dengelenme-ve-yumusak-inis\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Her toplum kend folklorunu yarat\u0131r. Mesela New York \u015fehrinde ya\u015fayanlar kanalizasyonlarda timsah dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in alafranga tuvaletlerin \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u00fcneyerek def-i hacet ederler. Maldiv Adalar\u0131n\u2019da ya\u015fayanlar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}