{"id":11733,"date":"2012-02-18T09:23:59","date_gmt":"2012-02-18T07:23:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11733"},"modified":"2012-02-18T09:24:09","modified_gmt":"2012-02-18T07:24:09","slug":"dunya-buyume-oynakligi-liginde-yerimiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dunya-buyume-oynakligi-liginde-yerimiz\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya B\u00fcy\u00fcme Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Liginde Yerimiz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2000-2010 d\u00f6neminde 184 \u00fclke i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k 130 \u00fclkeden daha fazla.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-33485805\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130leriye y\u00f6nelik tahmin yapmak teknik bir i\u015f. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler bir model \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu modellerin baz\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 oluyor. Mesela ham petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131na, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) politika faizine, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) parasal geni\u015flemeye gidip gitmeyece\u011fine, yurti\u00e7inde vergi oranlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilip de\u011fi\u015ftirilmeyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin alabilecekleri de\u011ferlerin farkl\u0131 bile\u015fimlerinden farkl\u0131 senaryolar olu\u015fturmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Mesela b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yap\u0131yorsan\u0131z, modeliniz size risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi belirleyen temel d\u0131\u015fsal unsurlardan biri oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorsa, vergi oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutup, FED ve ECB\u2019nin uygulayabilece\u011fi farkl\u0131 politikalara g\u00f6re farkl\u0131 senaryolar olu\u015fturabilirsiniz. Sonraki a\u015famada da her bir senaryo alt\u0131nda gelecek d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ne d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir sorusunun pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015febilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yan\u0131lg\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, ileriye y\u00f6nelik tahminler \u2018ko\u015fullu tahminler\u2019 olmak durumunda. Yani, \u015fu senaryo alt\u0131nda \u015fu, bu senaryo alt\u0131nda da bu gibi. \u00d6b\u00fcr t\u00fcrl\u00fc biraz garip olurdu. Gariplik i\u00e7in u\u00e7 bir \u00f6rnek: \u015eemsiye \u00fcretiyorsunuz. Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131za soruyorsunuz: Gelecek y\u0131l \u015femsiye sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ne d\u00fczeyde olur? \u201cKesin y\u00fczde 10 artar\u201d. De\u015fiyorsunuz: \u201cPeki, neye g\u00f6re artar?\u201d Cevap: \u201cArtar i\u015fte, \u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum\u201d. Bu durumda \u00fcreticinin ne yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k san\u0131yorum: Uzun d\u00f6nemli hava durumu tahminlerini \u015femsiye sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilendirmesini bilen bir dan\u0131\u015fman arayacakt\u0131r.<br \/>\n\u0130leriye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde yan\u0131lg\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz elbette. \u00dcstelik bu yan\u0131lg\u0131 az buz da olmayabilir. B\u0131rak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, y\u00f6n\u00fc bile yanl\u0131\u015f tahmin etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Elbette kullan\u0131lan modellerin ne derece \u2018do\u011fru\u2019 modeller olduklar\u0131 ile yak\u0131ndan ilgili yan\u0131lg\u0131lar. Ama modeliniz \u2018do\u011fru\u2019 model olsa bile bir ba\u015fka unsur daha var tahminlerde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yan\u0131lg\u0131ya yol a\u00e7an: Tahmin yap\u0131lan ekonomideki belirsizlikler. \u00d6zellikle de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin \u015fiddetli dalgalanmalar g\u00f6sterebildikleri \u00fclkelerde, ileriye y\u00f6nelik tahmin yapmak, de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin fazla oynamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha zor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nTabloda giderek k\u0131salan d\u00f6nemler itibariyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131, her bir y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetinden elde edilen d\u00f6nemsel oynakl\u0131k (standart sapma) ve standart sapman\u0131n ortalamaya b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesiyle elde edilen \u2018oynakl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131\u2019 var. Oynakl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckse, b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6nde de o kadar \u015fiddetli dalgalan\u0131yor demek. Tablonun son sat\u0131r\u0131nda ise 184 \u00fclkenin oynakl\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131 en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckten en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011fe do\u011fru s\u0131raland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ka\u00e7\u0131nc\u0131 s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor.<br \/>\n\u0130ki olgu dikkat \u00e7ekici. Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6nemli bir oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130kincisi, oynakl\u0131k giderek artm\u0131\u015f durumda. 2000-2010 d\u00f6neminde 184 \u00fclke i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k 130 \u00fclkeden daha fazla. Bu olgunun arkas\u0131ndaki temel nedenlerden biri de hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz \u015fu: 1989-1990\u2019da sermaye hareketlerinin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte, T\u00fcrkiye yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fon giri\u015fine \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 hale geldi. Y\u00fcksek fon giri\u015finin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyoruz. Fon giri\u015finin kesildi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde ise ya b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ya da ekonomimiz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yurti\u00e7i ekonomik durum d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda fon giri\u015flerinin temel belirleyicisi yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 ise 2012\u2019de FED ve ECB\u2019nin ne yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve Avrupa\u2019da ne olaca\u011f\u0131 ile yak\u0131ndan ilgili. \u00d6zellikle son ikisi \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yapmak her zaman zor, 2012\u2019de daha da zor k\u0131sacas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/02\/17\/fft16_mf920355.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2000-2010 d\u00f6neminde 184 \u00fclke i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k 130 \u00fclkeden daha fazla. \u0130leriye y\u00f6nelik tahmin yapmak teknik bir i\u015f. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler bir model \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11733\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}