T\u00dcS\u0130AD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00dcmit Boyner’in, “Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne Merkez Bankas\u0131 ne de kur \u00e7\u00f6zer” saptamas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinde biraz ge\u00e7 alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.
\nD\u00f6viz kurunun \u00f6nemli bir politika arac\u0131 oldu\u011fu ku\u015fkusuz. Gerek d\u00f6viz kuru rejimi gerekse uygulamalar\u0131 ekonominin reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 etkiler. Bu etkilerin mevcut yap\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in ise kur d\u00fczeyinin s\u00fcreklilik g\u00f6stermesi \u015fartt\u0131r.
\n80’li ve 90’l\u0131 y\u0131llarda bu konudaki strateji, reel efektif d\u00f6viz kurunu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu kadar sabit tutmakt\u0131. Y\u00fcksek enflasyonla ya\u015fayan T\u00fcrkiye’nin uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fini kaybetmemesi i\u00e7in, ticaret yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelerle enflasyon fark\u0131ndan kaynaklanacak olumsuzluklar \u00f6nlenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu.
\nDalgal\u0131 kura ge\u00e7ince IMF kurallar\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi. “Ne kadar d\u00f6viz, o kadar denge” yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 benimsendi. D\u00fcnyada giderek artan likidite, ekonomik dengeleri sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnce bize de y\u00f6neldi.
\nSavunmas\u0131z kalan TL, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu ile 2006 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 50 oran\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek artt\u0131. Yap\u0131s\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 da bu s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131.
\nIMF’den kurtulunca ger\u00e7e\u011fi anlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Ama i\u015f i\u015ften ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.
\nCari a\u00e7\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p gitmi\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi ise enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz katk\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamaz bir s\u00fcrece girmi\u015fti.<\/p>