{"id":11645,"date":"2012-02-15T15:32:04","date_gmt":"2012-02-15T13:32:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11645"},"modified":"2012-02-15T15:32:16","modified_gmt":"2012-02-15T13:32:16","slug":"ekonomik-buyume-ne-kadar-duser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonomik-buyume-ne-kadar-duser\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme Ne Kadar D\u00fc\u015fer?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 8, hatta biraz daha \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir beklenti h\u00e2kim. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonomi y\u00fczde 12 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130kinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 aylarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 8.8 ve y\u00fczde 8.2 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130lk dokuz ayl\u0131k ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 9.6 oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonomi y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcse, y\u0131l\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcnde ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 8.1 olacak.<br \/>\n2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonominin y\u00fczde 4 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Bu d\u00f6nemde imalat sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 5.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 13 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Toplam ithalat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7&#8217;ye kadar gerilemi\u015fti. Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda talep gerilemi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00fc\u00e7 aylara g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergeleri y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a h\u0131zl\u0131 geriledi.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2848235513\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>ARALIK AYI K\u00d6T\u00dcYD\u00dc<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00d6zellikle aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son y\u0131llar\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc aylar\u0131ndan biri oldu. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.7&#8217;ye kadar geriledi. Ara mallar\u0131 ve dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcretimi neredeyse sabit kald\u0131. Toplam ithalat bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Sermaye ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r derecede d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<br \/>\nCari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re 7.5 milyar dolardan 6.6 milyar dolara geriledi. Ama cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse edebilecek kadar d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulamad\u0131k. Bu d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz rezervleri 5.3 milyar dolar azald\u0131. Dolar kurunun ayl\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 1.85&#8217;e kadar geldi. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n nominal de\u011fer kayb\u0131 sepet baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 23&#8217;e yakla\u015ft\u0131.<br \/>\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00f6t\u00fc bir aral\u0131k ay\u0131 geride kald\u0131. Yine de, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k bazda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 4 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayacak. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki e\u011filim do\u011fal olarak azalarak ocak ve \u015fubat aylar\u0131na da yans\u0131yabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131na benzeyebilir. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerilemeyi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda da g\u00f6zleyebilece\u011fiz.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00dcY\u00dcME HIZLANAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130lk \u00fc\u00e7 aydan sonra ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayacak. B\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda iyimser olmak i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 neden var. Birincisi ve en \u00f6nemlisi, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarda son haftalarda g\u00f6zlenen olumlu havan\u0131n bundan sonra da devam edebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentilerin giderek g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor olmas\u0131. Yunanistan sorunu en az\u0131ndan belli bir s\u00fcre erteleniyor. Avrupa ekonomilerinin di\u011fer sorunlar\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme) en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde uluslararas\u0131 finansman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse edebilecek bir ortam giderek ye\u015feriyor.<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda iyimser olman\u0131n bir ba\u015fka nedeni yurti\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n duru\u015funun ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekler nitelikte olmas\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin desteklemesinin; faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaktan \u00e7ok, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin verilmesi yoluyla olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli. En az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde, Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir yandan TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin verecek, di\u011fer yandan d\u00f6viz rezervlerini takviye edecek bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc veriyor.<br \/>\nBu \u015fartlarda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde y\u0131l\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 4 tahmini, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek asgari s\u0131n\u0131r gibi duruyor. Ekonominin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndan sonra h\u0131zlanan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filimine girmesi i\u00e7in yeterli nedenler var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 8, hatta biraz daha \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir beklenti h\u00e2kim. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonomi y\u00fczde 12 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130kinci ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11645"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11645\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}