{"id":11625,"date":"2012-02-15T09:38:39","date_gmt":"2012-02-15T07:38:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11625"},"modified":"2012-02-15T09:38:48","modified_gmt":"2012-02-15T07:38:48","slug":"2011de-dis-denge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011de-dis-denge\/","title":{"rendered":"2011\u2019de D\u0131\u015f Denge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Aral\u0131k \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Benim yaz\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcme denk gelmi\u015fti. S\u0131ca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131na say\u0131lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi planl\u0131yordum. Evdeki hesap \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2806260000\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sevgili kay\u0131nbiraderim Profes\u00f6r Celal G\u00f6le Ankara SBF\u2019de 6 d\u00f6nem dekanl\u0131k yapt\u0131ktan sonra g\u00f6revini b\u0131rakt\u0131. Devir t\u00f6reninde M\u00fclkiye\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelenekleri beni duyguland\u0131rd\u0131. 18 y\u0131ll\u0131k rekorunu k\u0131ran olur mu? Sanmam.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm de maceral\u0131 ge\u00e7iyor. Ankara\u2019da sabah yo\u011fun kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile uyand\u0131k. Havaalan\u0131 kapand\u0131. Neredeyse d\u00f6rt saattir u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n i\u00e7inde oturuyoruz. Ne zaman kalkaca\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 bilinmiyor. Bug\u00fcn de kazaya kurban gitmemesi i\u00e7in yaz\u0131m\u0131 u\u00e7akta bitiriyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rekorlar y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tam bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce, o g\u00fcnk\u00fc e\u011filimlerin 2011\u2019de 110 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve 80 milyar dolar cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini yazd\u0131m. \u00c7o\u011funluk u\u00e7tu\u011fumu, en az\u0131ndan abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc. Daktilo hatas\u0131 zanneden bile oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 ortadad\u0131r. 2011\u2019de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 77 milyar dolar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Takvim y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in tarihi rekordur. 2011 milli gelirini 775 milyar dolar hesapl\u0131yorum. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019un g\u0131d\u0131m alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu tarihi rekorun a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimali g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k 2010\u2019da 47 milyar dolard\u0131. 2011\u2019de 30 milyar dolar artmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ithalatta 55 milyar dolar art\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (21 milyar dolar) ve hizmetler fazlas\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f (2 milyar dolar) ithalattaki patlamay\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6demeler dengesinin \u201cnet hata noksan\u201d kalemini bir s\u00fcredir pertavs\u0131z alt\u0131na ald\u0131k. D\u00fcn gazete man\u015fetlerine de ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. 2011\u2019de \u201cnesebi gayri sahih\u201d d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi 12.5 milyar dolar oldu. Uzak ara ile tarihi rekordur. Nedenleri karma\u015f\u0131kt\u0131r. Bir ara bakar\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3422665807\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011fer finansman kalemlerine d\u00f6nelim. Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n sadece y\u00fczde 17\u2019sini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor (13.4 milyar dolar). 2005 sonras\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oran\u0131d\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k TL ya da d\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7lanma a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor (38.1 milyar dolar). \u00d6zetle, finansman kalitesi iyice d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>E\u011filimin y\u00f6n\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00fcn haberler k\u00f6t\u00fc m\u00fc? Nereden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tarihi rekoru 78.6 milyar dolarla ekimde k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Yani y\u0131l\u0131n son iki ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k 1.5 milyar dolar geriledi. Takvim y\u0131l\u0131 verileri bizi aldat\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen konjonkt\u00fcrle bitirdik.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fotograf.gazetevatan.com\/newpics\/news\/140220121922145398321_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"right\" \/>Grafikte 2011\u2019de ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla de\u011fi\u015fimini izliyoruz. \u0130lk yar\u0131da ortalama ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 130 iken temmuz-ekim d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 50\u2019lere geriliyor. Kas\u0131m ve aral\u0131kta eksiye d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Yani iki ayd\u0131r ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k geriliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3892177250\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n bu olumlu geli\u015fmeye \u015f\u00fcphesiz katk\u0131s\u0131 oldu. Ancak konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130ki soru ile bitirelim. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta azalma e\u011filimi \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d i\u00e7in yeterli mi? TL\u2019nin de\u011feri bu s\u00fcreci destekliyor mu? \u00c7abuk \u00f6\u011freniriz&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aral\u0131k \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Benim yaz\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcme denk gelmi\u015fti. S\u0131ca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131na say\u0131lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi planl\u0131yordum. Evdeki hesap \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymad\u0131. Sevgili&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}