{"id":11619,"date":"2012-02-15T09:36:31","date_gmt":"2012-02-15T07:36:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11619"},"modified":"2012-02-15T09:36:43","modified_gmt":"2012-02-15T07:36:43","slug":"cari-acik-tahminleri-ve-gerceklesme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cari-acik-tahminleri-ve-gerceklesme\/","title":{"rendered":"Cari A\u00e7\u0131k Tahminleri ve Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>GSMH hari\u00e7 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n veri tablosunu tamamlad\u0131k.\u00a0 Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 \u00f6deme dengesi bilgileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demelerdeki halimizi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olduk.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son ay\u0131nda\u00a0 d\u0131\u015f\u00a0 \u00f6deme\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u00a0 6.5\u00a0 milyar dolar\u00a0 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Y\u0131l\u0131n\u00a0 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde ise cari a\u00e7\u0131k 77 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2085451219\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demeler tablosunda ilgin\u00e7 \u00f6zellikler var. Bunlardan birisi beklentiler ile fiili ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme aras\u0131ndaki mesafe. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k boyutunda bir s\u00fcrpriz yok. Beklenenin ayn\u0131s\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f.\u00a0 Burada ilgin\u00e7 bir \u015fey yok. Y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131kta ise durum ilgin\u00e7.\u00a0 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k boyutu ile beklentiler aras\u0131ndaki mesafe y\u0131l\u0131n hangi dilimindeki\u00a0 beklentiden\u00a0 s\u00f6z edildi\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle de ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin arkas\u0131ndan, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahminlerinde adeta u\u00e7an-ka\u00e7an say\u0131lar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m hat\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z.\u00a0 Bu d\u00f6nemin belli bir noktas\u0131nda\u00a0 y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 100 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131 gibi\u00a0 abs\u00fcrt tahminler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcn gibi hat\u0131rl\u0131yorum.\u00a0 Beklentilerin\u00a0 bu t\u00fcr tahminlere uyarak\u00a0 g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcne t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da biliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l sonunda durum b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131. U\u00e7uk beklentiler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi.\u00a0 G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00a0 gibi\u00a0 yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan cari a\u00e7\u0131k say\u0131s\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda.\u00a0 Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile beklentiler aras\u0131ndaki mesafeye y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki beklentiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakarsan\u0131z aralar\u0131nda u\u00e7urum var.<\/p>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k beklentilerin son bir iki ayda geldi\u011fi d\u00fczey y\u0131l\u00a0 sonundaki\u00a0 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyle\u00a0 neredeyse ayn\u0131. Bunda garip olan bir \u015fey yok. Y\u0131l\u0131n son ay\u0131nda y\u0131l sonu itibariyle cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru tahmin etmek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mesele de\u011fil.\u00a0 Ancak 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda esas olarak fiili ve beklenen cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahminlerinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kopuk oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zleniyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde\u00a0 beklentinin\u00a0\u00a0 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeye\u00a0 yak\u0131nsaman\u0131n kolay ve h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek zor.\u00a0\u00a0 Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile ilgili tahminlerin makul d\u00fczeye gerileyerek y\u0131l sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine yak\u0131nsamas\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 ciddi bir gecikmeyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131,\u00a0 2011\u00a0 y\u0131l\u0131\u00a0 cari a\u00e7\u0131k tahminlerinin\u00a0 ve\u00a0 beklentilerin\u00a0 baya\u011f\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. Yanl\u0131\u015f\u00a0 hat\u0131rlam\u0131yorsam\u00a0 tahminlerinde ipin ucunu ka\u00e7\u0131ranlar\u00a0 Temmuz-A\u011fustos d\u00f6nemindeki g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ayl\u0131k say\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten,\u00a0 Eyl\u00fcl ve Ekimde on iki ayl\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerin\u00a0 de yerinde saymaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u00a0 tan\u0131k olduktan sonra tahminlerini daha makul boyutlara \u00e7ekmeye raz\u0131 oldular.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2429571759\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Beklentilerin do\u011fru oldu\u011funu, asl\u0131nda fiili cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyemeyiz ku\u015fkusuz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla,\u00a0 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f denge ile ilgili tahminlerin ve bunlar\u0131n bi\u00e7imlendirdi\u011fi\u00a0 beklentilerin\u00a0 vahim \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmek durumunday\u0131z diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Tahminlerde ve beklentilerde yan\u0131lmak iktisadi hayat\u0131n i\u00e7inde var. Ekonomi yan\u0131lman\u0131n yan\u0131lmamaktan\u00a0 \u00e7ok\u00a0 daha\u00a0 kolay\u00a0 oldu\u011fu\u00a0 bir\u00a0 ya\u015fam\u00a0 alan\u0131.\u00a0 \u0130ktisadi tahminlerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda yan\u0131lman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir sonucu, bir maliyeti olmaz. Tahminde yan\u0131lan biraz madara olur, o kadar.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f dengesizlik tahminlerinde durum\u00a0 pek b\u00f6yle say\u0131lmaz.\u00a0 D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k boyutunu kestirmekte yan\u0131l\u0131nca a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 konusunda da yan\u0131lmak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olur. Bu ikisinde yan\u0131l\u0131nca bir yandan finansal fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6remezsiniz, bir yandan da b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 kestirmekte\u00a0 yan\u0131l\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z.\u00a0\u00a0 Bu noktalarda yan\u0131l\u0131nca b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinizden ba\u015flay\u0131p a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman imkanlar\u0131na kadar uzanan pek \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fkende de beklentileri olas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131na itme riski do\u011far.\u00a0 B\u00f6ylesine\u00a0 yayg\u0131n\u00a0 bir\u00a0 yan\u0131lma silsilesi ufku\u00a0 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle karart\u0131r ve vahim bir iktisadi tablo \u00e7izilmesine imkan verir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr zincirleme yan\u0131lg\u0131lar\u00a0 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kendisini do\u011furup, do\u011frulayan\u00a0 krizlerle\u00a0 sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r. Ekonomide kriz \u00fcretecek\u00a0 \u00f6nemli bir durum yokken varm\u0131\u015f gibi davranmak, beklentileri ve davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bu y\u00f6nde bi\u00e7imlendirerek kriz \u00fcretebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2208927696\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2011y\u0131l\u0131ndaki ser\u00fcveninden al\u0131nacak dersler var.\u00a0 En \u00f6nemli ders ise d\u0131\u015f denge tahminlerinde yan\u0131lman\u0131n masum yan\u0131lg\u0131lar aras\u0131nda yer almad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0 Umar\u0131m bu dersi iyi \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015fizdir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GSMH hari\u00e7 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n veri tablosunu tamamlad\u0131k.\u00a0 Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 \u00f6deme dengesi bilgileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demelerdeki halimizi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olduk.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11619\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}