{"id":11616,"date":"2012-02-15T09:33:34","date_gmt":"2012-02-15T07:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11616"},"modified":"2012-02-15T09:33:43","modified_gmt":"2012-02-15T07:33:43","slug":"odemeler-dengesinin-seffafligi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/odemeler-dengesinin-seffafligi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6demeler Dengesinin \u015eeffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 89.4 milyar dolar, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ise 77 milyar dolar d\u00fczeylerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 66.5 milyar dolar\u0131 sermaye hesab\u0131ndaki net giri\u015flerle, 12.4 milyar dolar\u0131 ise net hata ve noksan kalemindeki men\u015fei belirsiz b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckle finanse edilebilmi\u015f. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde ifade etmek gerekir ise sermaye hesab\u0131ndaki giri\u015fler cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse etmekte yetersiz kalm\u0131\u015f; T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n sebebini ise \u00f6ncelikle bu olumsuzlukta aramak gerekiyor. Fakat bu yaz\u0131da \u00f6ncelikle d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131 irdelemek istiyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-577372206\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu verilerine g\u00f6re 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ihracat rakam\u0131m\u0131z 135 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f; T\u00fcrkiye \u0130hracat Meclisi&#8217;nin kay\u0131tlar\u0131 da buna paralel bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc sergiliyor. Ancak Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri toplam ihracat\u0131n 143.5 milyar dolar oldu\u011funu iddia ediyor. Aradaki 8.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k fark ihmal edilemeyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in sorgulamak gerekiyor. Belli ki para otoritesi biraz da eski al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131kla &#8220;bavul ticareti&#8221; ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda bu rakam\u0131 ilave ederek hesap yap\u0131yor, s\u00f6z konusu ne g\u00fcmr\u00fck kay\u0131tlar\u0131nda ne de T\u00fcrkiye \u0130hracat Meclisi&#8217;ne bildirimlerde hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde yer alm\u0131yor. Bu a\u015famada sormak gerekiyor, bu ihracat\u0131 yapanlar vergi iadesi alm\u0131yor mu? Neden g\u00fcmr\u00fcklere ve \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar Meclisi&#8217;ne herhangi bir bildirimde bulunmuyorlar? Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu veriyi nas\u0131l bir metodoloji ile hesapl\u0131yor? Rakam neden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck veya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fil de, 8.5 milyar dolar?<\/p>\n<p>Yine T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu ile Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ithalatla ilgili verileri aras\u0131nda 8 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir fark var. Topam ithalat ilkine g\u00f6re 240.9 milyar dolar di\u011ferine g\u00f6re 232.9 milyar dolar!.. Aradaki fark\u0131n alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz; fakat s\u00f6z konusu alt\u0131n\u0131 rezervler i\u00e7inde g\u00f6stermek d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 konusunda yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 kanaatler olu\u015fmas\u0131na sebep olabiliyor; fiilen alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ve d\u00f6viz rezervi bu nedenle azalmam\u0131\u015f gibi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat rakam\u0131n\u0131n 8.5 milyar dolar daha y\u00fcksek, ithalat rakam\u0131n\u0131n da 8 milyar dolar daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi, T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu&#8217;na g\u00f6re 105.9 milyar dolar olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu sayede cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 16.5 milyar dolar kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcyor. Sermaye hesab\u0131ndaki net giri\u015flerin yetersizlik d\u00fczeyini gizliyor, \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K ve T\u0130M verilerini teyit edecek \u015fekilde olsa idi; net hata noksan kaleminden giri\u015fler 12.4 milyar dolar yerine 21 milyar dolar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcnecek, \u015f\u00fcphe uyand\u0131racakt\u0131. Bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervindeki erime daha belirgin olacakt\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gayri safi milli has\u0131laya oran\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek, risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n daha tehlikeli seviyelere t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na sebep olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Nispeten \u00f6nemsiz olsa da cari denge i\u00e7indeki cari transferler bir di\u011fer belirsizlik kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00d6demeler dengesine g\u00f6re 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u00f6z konusu hesapta net 1.7 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f olmu\u015f ve d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltm\u00fc\u015f. \u015eahsen yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015f\u00e7ilerimizin \u00fclkemize eskiden oldu\u011fu gibi gelir transferi yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ka\u00e7ak olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir transfer ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Fakat bu konudaki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;ndan de\u011fil, k\u0131smen kay\u0131td\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131ktan ve k\u0131smen bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz al\u0131m bordrolar\u0131ndaki istatistik kodu uygulamalar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclkemize ili\u015fkin veriler aras\u0131nda \u00f6demeler dengesi nispeten \u015feffaf olanlar aras\u0131ndad\u0131r; fakat yine de aynaya bakar gibi bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kendimizi g\u00f6remeyiz. \u0130statistiki tablolara ve rakamlara bakarak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi tan\u0131maya \u00e7al\u015fanlar\u0131n, ger\u00e7ekleri g\u00f6rebilmesi pek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir!.. Tersini iddia edenler, yan\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 olacak&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 89.4 milyar dolar, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ise 77 milyar dolar d\u00fczeylerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. D\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}