{"id":11606,"date":"2012-02-14T17:03:31","date_gmt":"2012-02-14T15:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11606"},"modified":"2012-02-14T17:03:42","modified_gmt":"2012-02-14T15:03:42","slug":"iki-farkli-2011-yili","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iki-farkli-2011-yili\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ki Farkl\u0131 2011 Y\u0131l\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 ile ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6demeler dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gece ile g\u00fcnd\u00fcz kadar farkl\u0131 geli\u015fti. \u0130lk yar\u0131da h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de ate\u015flemesiyle daha y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdik. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynak giri\u015fi, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<br \/>\nY\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 birinci yar\u0131ya g\u00f6re daha az oldu. Ama d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi daha da az oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda biriktirilen d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yemek zorunda kald\u0131k.<br \/>\n2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin gerektirdi\u011fi d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki kay\u0131p yoluyla sa\u011flanmam\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselme \u00e7ok daha sert olup ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00e7ok daha sert d\u00fc\u015fecekti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rman\u0131n maliyeti, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda biriktirilen d\u00f6vizlerin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yenmesi oldu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3074501763\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>DI\u015e A\u00c7IKLAR<\/strong><br \/>\n2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcnde cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 65 artarak 77.1 milyar dolar oldu. Toplam a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 44.7 milyar dolar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, 32.4 milyar dolar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 127 olurken ikinci yar\u0131da y\u00fczde 20 oldu. Art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenecek boyutta de\u011fil.<br \/>\n2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda fob baz\u0131nda 89.4 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 46.5 milyar dolar\u0131 ilk yar\u0131da, 42.9 milyar dolar\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ilk yar\u0131da y\u00fczde 1 22, ikinci yar\u0131da y\u00fczde 21 oldu.<br \/>\nAsl\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klardaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 270 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 3 oldu. Son \u00fc\u00e7 aydaki gerilemelerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda oldu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>F\u0130NANSMAN<\/strong><br \/>\nCari i\u015flemler dengesinin finansman taraf\u0131 da gece ile g\u00fcnd\u00fcz kadar fark g\u00f6steriyor. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 47.5 milyar dolar net d\u0131\u015f finansman sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015fken, bu miktar y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 18.2 milyar dolarda kald\u0131. D\u0131\u015f finansman eksi\u011fi, kayna\u011f\u0131 bilinmeyen d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri ile d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki azalmayla kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131.<br \/>\nY\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda net hata noksan kalemi 8 milyar dolar kayna\u011f\u0131 bilinmeyen d\u00f6viz giri\u015fine i\u015faret ediyordu. Bu kalemlerden giri\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 4.3 milyar dolara geriledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00f6viz rezervleri 10.8 milyar dolar artarken, ikinci yar\u0131da 9.8 milyar dolar azald\u0131.<br \/>\nD\u0131\u015f finansmanda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ya\u015fanan t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 hari\u00e7 her kalemde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funlukla banka bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131yla 25 milyar dolara ula\u015fan do\u011frudan bor\u00e7lanma yoluyla elde edilen d\u0131\u015f finansman, ikinci yar\u0131da 5 milyar dolara geriledi. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 17 milyar dolardan 5 milyar dolara geldi.<br \/>\n2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bozulan d\u0131\u015f finansman g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda devam edip etmeyece\u011fini bilemiyoruz. Ama y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 haftas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6zlemler durumun, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00f6zellikle son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndan daha iyi oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Buna paralel olarak d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 yoluyla d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 da unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 ile ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6demeler dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gece ile g\u00fcnd\u00fcz kadar farkl\u0131 geli\u015fti. \u0130lk yar\u0131da h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de ate\u015flemesiyle daha y\u00fcksek&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}