{"id":11562,"date":"2012-02-14T01:48:36","date_gmt":"2012-02-13T23:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11562"},"modified":"2012-02-14T01:49:29","modified_gmt":"2012-02-13T23:49:29","slug":"ltro-ve-deleveraging","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ltro-ve-deleveraging\/","title":{"rendered":"LTRO ve Deleveraging"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Herhalde \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131n\u2019dan bu yana bu kadar \u00e7ok para bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn de Japon ekonomisinin 4. \u00e7eyrekte yine suyun dibine dald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck.. \u00c7are?\u00a0 Daha fazla para basal\u0131m, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomiyi \u00e7\u00f6kerten a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Japon Yeni. ABD ekonomisi yava\u015flayabilir.\u00a0 \u00c7are?\u00a0 QE3, olmazsa QEn+1.\u00a0 \u0130ngiltere batt\u0131, yak\u0131nda Bakingam\u2019\u0131 sat\u0131\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kartaca\u011f\u0131z, \u00e7are?\u00a0 Hemen 50 milyar Sterling daha gilt\u00a0 alal\u0131m.\u00a0 Avrupa\u2019da bankalara kimse bor\u00e7 vermiyor, hepsi g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fck valla.\u00a0 Kolay\u0131 var.. Nas\u0131l yani?\u00a0 LTRO.\u00a0 \u00d6nce LTRO\u2019yu anlayal\u0131m, sonra deleveragingle ili\u015fkisini, ard\u0131ndan da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6demeler dengesine katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-582582630\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>LTRO yani Long Term Repo Operations Draghi\u2019nin Bernanke\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 finans literat\u00fcr\u00fcne girmek i\u00e7in uydurdu\u011fu kolpo.\u00a0 AMB isteyen bankaya teminat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 3 y\u0131l vadeyle bor\u00e7 veriyor. Teminat D\u0130BS, ama olmazsa, bakkal senedi ve vadeli \u00e7ek de olur.\u00a0 Maliyet?\u00a0 Ucuz, AMB faizi \u00fcst\u00fcne ufak bir hediye.\u00a0 Yok, bu \u015faka.\u00a0 Maliyeti ucuz de\u011fil baya\u011f\u0131 pahal\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc D\u0130BS\u2019ler piyasa de\u011feri art\u0131 hair cut\u2019la fiyatlan\u0131yor. \u00a0\u0130lk LTRO ihalesinde takriben 500 milyar Euro fonlama yap\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0 Bu ay sonunda yap\u0131lacak ihalede yine o kadar bir miktar bekleniyor, ama son bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Maryo Birader b\u00fct\u00fcn bankalara utanmadan gelip ne kadar isterlerse kredi almalar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>LTRO bir QE tabii ki, ama Bernanke\u2019nin Saadet Zincin\u2019den biraz farkl\u0131 i\u015fliyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bernanke do\u011frudan gidip D\u0130BS al\u0131yor, hem getiri e\u011frisini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor (faizleri indiriyor), hem de piyasalara likidite veriyor. LTRO ise sadece likidite veriyor. \u00d6nce, herkes bu fonlaman\u0131n bankalar tarafondan D\u0130BS almakta kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sand\u0131. Tabii ki olmad\u0131. Maliyeti ne olursa olsun 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k fonlama ile gidip 5-10 y\u0131l vadeli ka\u011f\u0131t alan her banka batar.\u00a0 Ama, PIIGS getiri e\u011frilerinin k\u0131sa ucunda faizleri bast\u0131rarak bir nebze\u00a0 yarar sa\u011flad\u0131. Yani \u0130talyan 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisiyle Alman\u00a0 getirisi aras\u0131ndaki spread darald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>LTRO paras\u0131n\u0131n nereye gitti\u011fini Maryo Birader sonunda \u00e7akt\u0131, bankalar deleveraging\u2019i yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yor.\u00a0 Yani, vadesi gelen bono ve tahvillerin yerine koyarak bilan\u00e7odak\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 makul bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Bu kadar\u0131 bile \u00a0benim gibi kulak verilmesi hatta yazmas\u0131\u00a0 toplum sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in sak\u0131ncal\u0131 olanlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131zlar\u0131 sulanarak, le\u015f kargalar\u0131 gibi bekledikleri\u00a0 kredi\u00a0 darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n niye ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini anlat\u0131yor. Bankalar hala yeni kredi vermiyor, onlar i\u00e7in kritik olmayan pazar ve piyasalardan \u00e7ekiliyor, ama bunu usul usul yap\u0131yor.\u00a0 Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6yle herkesin kolayl\u0131kla b\u0131rak\u0131p gidece\u011fi bir pazar da de\u011fil. Bir bankan\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 eskort k\u0131z\u0131n ekonomistler y\u0131ll\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p ba\u015fka yerde m\u00fc\u015fteri aramas\u0131 gibi bir\u015fey. \u00a0\u00a0Bug\u00fcn \u00f6demeler dengesi verlerinde yabanc\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n (YDY) nerdeyse 16 milyar dolara vard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcm ve gurur duydum.\u00a0 Bu zamanda o kadar yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacak yabanc\u0131 \u015firketi her \u00fclke bulam\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fte bu YDY\u2019\u0131 finanse eden de LTRO olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/ltro-ve-deleveraging\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herhalde \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131n\u2019dan bu yana bu kadar \u00e7ok para bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn de Japon ekonomisinin 4. \u00e7eyrekte yine suyun dibine dald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck..&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}