{"id":11441,"date":"2012-02-09T09:00:55","date_gmt":"2012-02-09T07:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11441"},"modified":"2012-02-09T09:01:06","modified_gmt":"2012-02-09T07:01:06","slug":"finansin-onemine-ornek-abnin-iran-onlemleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/finansin-onemine-ornek-abnin-iran-onlemleri\/","title":{"rendered":"Finans\u0131n \u00d6nemine \u00d6rnek: AB&#8217;nin \u0130ran \u00d6nlemleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AB (ABD ile birlikte) d\u00fcnyada, finansta neredeyse tekelci konumda. \u0130ran&#8217;\u0131 as\u0131l vuracak olan da bu kanal.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1566664919\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 yine g\u00fcndemde. Bu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidi ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Arkas\u0131ndan Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler g\u00fcndeme geldi. IMF, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerin bu \u00fclkenin petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemesi durumunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20-30 aras\u0131nda artabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Do\u011fal olarak buna bir de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 eklenirse petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Ama \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tehditlerinden sonra 22 Ocak 2012\u2019de ABD donanmas\u0131n\u0131n 5. Filosu\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 USS Abraham Lincoln u\u00e7ak gemisi beraberinde \u00fc\u00e7 Amerikan, bir \u0130ngiliz ve bir de Frans\u0131z sava\u015f gemisi ile birlikte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ip Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne girdi. \u0130ran hi\u00e7bir engelleme giri\u015fiminde bulun[a]mad\u0131. Konu b\u00f6ylece g\u00fcndemin \u00f6n s\u0131ralar\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p><strong>En b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fc\u015fteri \u00c7in\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nGeriye AB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler ve bunlar\u0131n 1 Temmuz 2012\u2019de y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesini beklemeden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu \u00fclkelere petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kesmesinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkisi kald\u0131. AB\u2019nin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 20 dolaylar\u0131nda. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fc\u015fterisi \u00c7in (pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 22). Di\u011fer \u00f6nemli m\u00fc\u015fteriler ise Japonya, Hindistan ve G\u00fcney Kore. Konu bizi de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 30\u2019u \u0130ran\u2019dan.<br \/>\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019ye petrol satamamas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte arz-talep dengesinin bozulmas\u0131 gerekir. Bunun i\u00e7in de iki ko\u015fulun birden sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunlu: i) \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi. ii) Ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin petrol ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmamas\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019ye petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin bu iki ko\u015fulun birden sa\u011flanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 epeyce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. \u0130ran biraz fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek \u00c7in\u2019e (ve di\u011fer baz\u0131 \u00fclkelere) ihracat\u0131n\u0131 pek\u00e2l\u00e2 artt\u0131rabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131 fazla etkilenmeyebilir. OPEC\u2019in at\u0131l petrol \u00fcretim kapasitesi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n toplam \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 80\u2019i dolay\u0131nda. Asl\u0131nda bu at\u0131l kapasitenin tamam\u0131 Suudi Arabistan\u2019da. Bu \u00fclke de \u00fcretimini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna Irak\u2019\u0131n 25 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde devreye girecek dolum tesisi nedeniyle artacak ihracat kapasitesi ve Libya da eklenebilir.<br \/>\nSuudi Arabistan ni\u00e7in petrol rezervlerinin bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na raz\u0131 oldu? Burada temel neden ticari de\u011fil. \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemleri desteklemek i\u00e7in bunu yap\u0131yor. O zaman, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n i\u015fine gelen strateji, bu nedenle d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyat\u0131 artarsa, \u0130ran, ayn\u0131 petrol gelirini, kendisinden petrol almaya devam eden \u00fclkelerden sa\u011flayabilir. Bu durumda AB\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin \u00f6nlemlerinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<br \/>\nGeriye bir ba\u015fka soru kal\u0131yor. AB \u00fclkelerinin ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin etkili olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmelerinin arkas\u0131nda ne yat\u0131yor? Herhalde bir piyasada y\u00fczde 20\u2019lik payla ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck durumunda olan bir oyuncunun tekelci rol\u00fc oynayamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi biliyorlar. Ama ba\u015fka bir alanda AB (ABD ile birlikte) d\u00fcnyada, neredeyse, tekelci konumda; o da finans! \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 as\u0131l vuracak olan da bu kanal. Petrole ili\u015fkin olarak da bu kanal sigorta \u00fczerinden \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Petrol ta\u015f\u0131yan tankerlerin y\u00fczde 95\u2019i International Group of P&amp;I Clubs taraf\u0131ndan, Avrupa hukukuna g\u00f6re sigorta ediliyor. Bu kurulu\u015f, AB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin, sigortalama i\u015fleminin \u0130ran\u2019la ili\u015fkili petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na uygulanamamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu durumda d\u00fcnya tanker filosunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u0130ran hatt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktan \u00e7ekinecek. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol gelirini as\u0131l etkileyecek olan da bu. Ger\u00e7i \u00c7in ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n (bu \u00fclke zaten \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f durumda) ayr\u0131 sigorta \u00f6rg\u00fctleri var. Ama \u00c7in\u2019in petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 (2010\u2019da y\u00fczde 90 dolay\u0131nda) yabanc\u0131 band\u0131ral\u0131 tankerlerle yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00f6nlemin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girme tarihini ise \u0130ran de\u011fil AB belirlemi\u015f durumda. O da Temmuz 2012. \u00d6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n istedi\u011fi de\u011fil AB\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AB (ABD ile birlikte) d\u00fcnyada, finansta neredeyse tekelci konumda. \u0130ran&#8217;\u0131 as\u0131l vuracak olan da bu kanal. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 yine g\u00fcndemde. Bu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":1032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}