{"id":11438,"date":"2012-02-09T08:59:23","date_gmt":"2012-02-09T06:59:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11438"},"modified":"2012-02-09T08:59:35","modified_gmt":"2012-02-09T06:59:35","slug":"havalari-nasil-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/havalari-nasil-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Havalar\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye fon giri\u015fleri artt\u0131, ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullar ge\u00e7erli olursa ekonomide 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4&#8217;\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2730407060\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Para politikas\u0131nda yeni aray\u0131\u015flar\u2019 dizisindeki kurumsal d\u00fczenleme \u00f6nerim hakk\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015fmaya kat\u0131lanlar var; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerine cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yer verece\u011fim. D\u00fcn aral\u0131k ay\u0131na ait sanayi \u00fcretim verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bug\u00fcn o verilerden yola \u00e7\u0131karak 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine d\u00f6nmek istiyorum.<br \/>\n2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 8,9 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131. 2010\u2019da ise y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 13,1 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Son aylardaki geli\u015fmeler daha \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ne d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir \u00f6n bilgi verecekler. \u00c7ok fazla rakama bo\u011fmadan s\u00f6yleyeyim: Sanayi \u00fcretiminin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir miktar ivme kayb\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok.<br \/>\n2011\u2019in son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ndeki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar yeniden kar\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izlemekle birlikte risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Euro B\u00f6lgesi liderlerinin derin sorunlara bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7are \u00fcretememeleri, onlar \u00e7are \u00fcretemedik\u00e7e de Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemi kurtaracak \u00f6nlemlere yana\u015fmamas\u0131, 2012 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan karamsar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zellikle uluslararas\u0131 fon ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n keskin bi\u00e7imde azalmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle 2012\u2019ye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Bunun son \u00f6rne\u011fi, ge\u00e7enlerde IMF\u2019den geldi. IMF\u2019nin yeni \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne g\u00f6re t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 2012\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.3 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Bu de\u011fer, IMF\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl 2011\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcye k\u0131yasla 0.7 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<br \/>\nY\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek bir faiz politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7mesi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ya\u015fanan derin kriz ve Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu\u2019nun haziran ay\u0131nda ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler, kredi arz\u0131n\u0131n ve talebinin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00d6te yandan, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu durum, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n 2012\u2019deki performans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan soru i\u015faretleri do\u011furdu. 2012\u2019ye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri bu ortamda yap\u0131ld\u0131.<br \/>\nDaha \u00f6nce (13 Eyl\u00fcl 2011\u2019de) 2012\u2019ye ili\u015fkin iki ana senaryo vermi\u015ftim. Senaryolar\u0131n ilki, Avrupa\u2019da krizin \u015fiddetlenmedi\u011fi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) kararlar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 senaryo idi. FED\u2019in yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesi halinde, \u201c&#8230;Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim d\u00f6nemde yine potansiyelimizin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131r ve yine cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum\u201d demi\u015fim. \u0130kinci ana senaryom ise Avrupa\u2019daki krizin \u015fiddetlenmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek y\u00fckseldi\u011fi senaryoydu. Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n daha da bozulmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oluyordu. Yine baz\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra \u201c&#8230;Ekonomimiz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr ve i\u015fsizlik s\u0131\u00e7rar. FED\u2019in yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesi bu olumsuz etkileri bir miktar t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir\u201d yolunda ahk\u00e2m kesmi\u015fim.<br \/>\nDaha sonraki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda baz\u0131 alt senaryolara yer verdim. Senaryo 1\u2019i biraz daha az iyimser yapt\u0131m. Ayr\u0131ca Senaryo 2\u2019deki karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha az olmas\u0131n\u0131n hangi ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Sonu\u00e7ta Senaryo 2\u2019nin bir alt senaryosu (Avrupa\u2019da kriz eyl\u00fcle g\u00f6re daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olan aral\u0131ktaki durumda kal\u0131yor, FED d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor) o tarihte daha makul g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimi y\u00fczde 1-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda verdim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Y\u00fczde 4&#8242; \u00fc a\u015fabilir\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nAral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in bir dizi karar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. ECB devreye girdi ve bankalara y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda fon aktard\u0131. FED yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gidebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi. Sonu\u00e7ta, ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseldi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik fon giri\u015fleri de artt\u0131. Bu ko\u015fullar, Senaryo 1\u2019deki ko\u015fullara yak\u0131nlar. Bundan sonra da ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullar ge\u00e7erli olursa, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, resmi tahmin olan y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar. Yine ayn\u0131 soru. Bu ko\u015fullar s\u00fcrer mi? Bilmiyorum. Ama bildi\u011fim bir \u015fey var. Birka\u00e7 hafta sonra tekrar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, ondan birka\u00e7 hafta sonra da y\u00fczde 5-6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ihtimalinden s\u00f6z etmem m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ortal\u0131k \u00e7ok belirsiz. Ne yaz\u0131k ki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 yabanc\u0131 mali yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u2018havas\u0131na\u2019 kalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye fon giri\u015fleri artt\u0131, ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullar ge\u00e7erli olursa ekonomide 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4&#8217;\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar. Para politikas\u0131nda yeni aray\u0131\u015flar\u2019 dizisindeki kurumsal d\u00fczenleme \u00f6nerim hakk\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015fmaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11438"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11438\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}