{"id":1137,"date":"2011-06-07T09:06:56","date_gmt":"2011-06-07T06:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1137"},"modified":"2011-06-07T09:56:11","modified_gmt":"2011-06-07T06:56:11","slug":"duzeltmenin-anatomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/duzeltmenin-anatomisi\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fczeltmenin Anatomisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde olu\u015fan makro dengesizli\u011fi inceliyoruz. Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep sayesinde ekonomi\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>h\u0131zl\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/a> b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ama a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli TL i\u00e7 talebi ithalata y\u00f6neltiyor. Neticede d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k patl\u0131yor. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi konusunda teredd\u00fctler beliriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4213626970\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kendi haline b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde mali piyasalar\u0131n eninde sonunda\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>bu<\/strong><\/span><\/a>dengesizli\u011fi d\u00fczeltece\u011fi biliniyor. \u201cSert ini\u015f\u201d dedik. Ancak i\u00e7erdi\u011fi mali \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n reel ekonomiye maliyeti y\u00fcksek oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>O nedenle d\u00fczeltmeyi iktisat politikas\u0131n\u0131n yapmas\u0131 tercih ediliyor. \u201c\u0130ntizaml\u0131 d\u00fczeltme\u201d dedik. Dengesizli\u011fe do\u011fru te\u015fhis \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131 anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde politika opsiyonlar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k getirebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda i\u00e7 talep, d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/a> \u00f6d\u00fcnle\u015fmeyi vurgulad\u0131k. Ne demek? D\u00fczeltme i\u00e7 talebin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. Ama b\u00fcy\u00fcme durur. Ya da TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 desteklenir. O takdirde enflasyon y\u00fckselir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zor tercihler<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131 dizisinin ana temalar\u0131ndan birine geldik. \u00d6zdeyi\u015fi hat\u0131rlay\u0131n: D\u00fcn yedi\u011fin hurmalar bug\u00fcn mideni t\u0131rmalar.\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>Aile<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, \u015firket ya da \u00fclke fark etmez. Uzun s\u00fcre gelirinin \u00fczerinde ya\u015faman\u0131n bedeli mutlaka \u00f6denir. Yani dengesizli\u011fe bedava \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yoktur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ntizaml\u0131 d\u00fczeltme hedefleyen iktisat politikas\u0131 birbirini destekleyen iki amaca y\u00f6nelir. \u0130lki d\u00fczeltmeyi zamana yayabilmektir. Di\u011feri reel kesime faturay\u0131 asgari d\u00fczeyde tutmakt\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece \u00f6denecek bedelin toplum taraf\u0131ndan hazm\u0131 kolayla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6d\u00fcnle\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini korur. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi d\u00fczeltmenin her a\u015famas\u0131nda i\u00e7 talebi k\u0131smak ya da TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na izin vermek aras\u0131nda bir tercih yapmak zorundad\u0131r. \u00dcstelik hata marj\u0131 dard\u0131r. \u0130ki u\u00e7 senaryo ile somutla\u015ft\u0131ral\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2717219689\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Politika sadece i\u00e7 talebin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131r. Ne olur? B\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fer, ithalat yava\u015flar, enflasyonist bask\u0131 ortadan kalkar. Ya d\u00f6viz kuru? Olsa olsa TL de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. \u201cKay\u0131p-kay\u0131p\u201d durumudur. Makro dengesizlik d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131ktan yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Politika sadece TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na odaklan\u0131r. Ne olur? Enflasyon t\u0131rman\u0131r. Mali piyasalar tepki verir. Mali \u00e7alkant\u0131 tetiklenir. D\u00fczeltme \u201csert ini\u015fe\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. B\u00fcy\u00fcme durur. \u201cKay\u0131p-kay\u0131p\u201d durumudur. D\u00fczeltme maliyeti \u00e7ok y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u0131rat k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Aras\u0131 yoktur ya da imk\u00e2ns\u0131zd\u0131r demiyorum. M\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr; ama y\u00f6netmesi ciddi zorluklar ta\u015f\u0131r.<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>\u0130ngilizce<\/strong><\/span><\/a> \u201cb\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131\u201d denir. Ekonominin uzunca bir s\u00fcre durgunlukla mali \u00e7alkant\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ince \u00e7izgide tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir. \u201cS\u0131rat k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fcne\u201d benziyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-259475090\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Do\u011frusu, ge\u00e7mi\u015f deneyimler bu a\u00e7\u0131dan umut vermiyor. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin son d\u00f6nem uygulamalar\u0131 a\u00e7maza duyarl\u0131l\u0131k i\u015faretleri ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak, aksi y\u00f6nde ba\u015fka a\u00e7\u0131klamalara da rastlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki iki senaryodan hangisi daha muhtemel duruyor? \u0130lki derim. Mali piyasan\u0131n tercihidir. Klasik re\u00e7ete uygulan\u0131r. Maliye ve para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7 talebi k\u0131sacak \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131r. Ekonomi duraklarken TL de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k biraz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr. Yani makro dengesizli\u011fe kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bir ba\u015fka bahara ertelenir.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fczeltme dizisine \u015fimdilik ara veriyorum. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin tercihlerini etkileyecektir. Onlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor. Durum netle\u015fince geri d\u00f6nece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asaf \u00a0Sava\u015f AKAT<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde olu\u015fan makro dengesizli\u011fi inceliyoruz. Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep sayesinde ekonomi\u00a0h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ama a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli TL i\u00e7 talebi ithalata y\u00f6neltiyor. Neticede d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k patl\u0131yor. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}