{"id":11360,"date":"2012-02-08T09:12:56","date_gmt":"2012-02-08T07:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11360"},"modified":"2012-02-08T09:13:27","modified_gmt":"2012-02-08T07:13:27","slug":"iktisatcinin-huznu-ve-ucan-piyasalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/iktisatcinin-huznu-ve-ucan-piyasalar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fczn\u00fc ve U\u00e7an Piyasalar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta yine pek \u00e7ok konu g\u00fcndeme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0 Kimisine sadece g\u00f6z at\u0131p,\u00a0 kenara koyduk.\u00a0 Baz\u0131 konulara da daha dikkatli bakt\u0131k.\u00a0 Herkesin\u00a0 me\u015frebi farkl\u0131 tabii.\u00a0 Me\u015frebe g\u00f6re ilgilendikleri konu da farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Kendi ad\u0131ma son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcndemde yer\u00a0 bulan\u00a0 iki\u00a0 konuya, daha \u00e7ok da bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 ba\u011flant\u0131ya,\u00a0 ilgi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fimi s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Konulardan\u00a0 birisi\u00a0 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ekonomideki olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri tahminleriyle ilgili. \u0130kinci konu ise yeni y\u0131l\u0131n arifesinde ba\u015flayan, sonras\u0131nda daha\u00a0 da\u00a0 yo\u011funla\u015fan\u00a0 iyimserlik iklimi ve bunun piyasalar\u0131 adeta u\u00e7urmas\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3463080679\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ekonomideki geli\u015fmeleri tahmin etme\u00a0 konusundaki\u00a0 zafiyeti\u00a0 her zaman ilgi \u00e7ekici bir konudur. \u0130ktisadi\u00a0 hayat\u0131n\u00a0 karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ekonomideki geli\u015fmelerin ayn\u0131 anda \u00e7ok say\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fken taraf\u0131ndan etkileniyor ve benzeri etkenler\u00a0 ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fck tahminlerin genel bir yan\u0131lma pay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedenleri aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131r. Bu iktisadi tahminlerde yan\u0131lmay\u0131 istisna de\u011fil adeta kural haline getirir. K\u0131sacas\u0131, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n tahmin yan\u0131lg\u0131s\u0131 o kadar yayg\u0131n ve s\u0131k tekrarlanan bir olgudur ki bunu \u00f6zel bir konu olarak ele al\u0131p de\u011ferlendirmek malumun ilam\u0131 olman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7mez.<\/p>\n<p>Benim de\u00a0 niyetim bu de\u011fil zaten. T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n &#8220;tahmin tabiat\u0131&#8221;\u00a0 hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lan bir de\u011ferlendirme ilgimi \u00e7ekti. Ben yaz\u0131n\u0131n kendisini g\u00f6rmedim. The Wall Street Journal&#8217;\u0131n (WSJ) bir\u00a0 blog\u00a0 sitesinde\u00a0 yay\u0131nlanan\u00a0 yaz\u0131\u00a0 T\u00fcrk\u00a0 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n &#8220;h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc &#8221; bir grup oldu\u011funu, son y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrk ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmede harikalar yarat\u0131rken T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bunu hep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin ettiklerini, b\u00f6yle bir zaafla malul olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc, yani tahmin \u00f6z\u00fcrl\u00fc bir grup oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek san\u0131r\u0131m do\u011fru olmaz.\u00a0 \u00d6teki \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu gibi bizim iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z aras\u0131nda da a\u011f\u0131r doz h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc olanlar oldu\u011fu gibi iyimserli\u011fi bir u\u00e7uculuk becerisi haline getirmi\u015f olanlar da var.\u00a0 Kald\u0131 ki, \u00f6zellikle kriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yan\u0131lma pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bilinir. Bunu T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fczn\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendirmek haks\u0131zl\u0131k olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, son haftalarda g\u00fcndeme gelen 2012 ve sonras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahmin ve tart\u0131\u015fmalara y\u00fcksek dozlu bir h\u00fczn\u00fcn damga vurdu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek de yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.\u00a0 \u015eu me\u015fhur sert ini\u015f-yumu\u015fak ini\u015f meselesini kastediyorum.\u00a0 Sert\u00a0 inece\u011fimizi s\u00f6yleyen\u00a0 h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc\u00a0 iktisat\u00e7\u0131\u00a0 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n baya\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu malum. Bu s\u0131ralarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde h\u00fcz\u00fcn diz boyu anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z. WSJ bunu kastediyorsa do\u011fruya i\u015faret ediyor denilebilir do\u011frusu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fin ilgin\u00e7 yan\u0131,\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde h\u00fcz\u00fcn ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaplam\u0131\u015fken piyasalarda tam bir iyimserlik \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Son haftalarda mali piyasalarda genel bir canlanma ve iyiye gidi\u015f var. Bu sadece bizde b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada durum bu.\u00a0 Finans\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n deyi\u015fi\u00a0 ile bir rally ya\u015fan\u0131yor, yani piyasalar u\u00e7uyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kimsenin u\u00e7u\u015funda g\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz yok ama bu geli\u015fmeler piyasalar\u0131n alg\u0131s\u0131 ile fiili durum aras\u0131nda bir kopukluk oldu\u011fu izlenimin veriyor.\u00a0 \u00d6yle ya, bir yandan ekonomilerin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, kimisinin fiilen daralaca\u011f\u0131 gibi h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc tahminler yap\u0131l\u0131rken bir yandan da piyasalar\u0131n bu denli \u015fenlikli olmas\u0131 bunlar\u0131n birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmez mi?\u00a0 Bana kal\u0131rsa gelmez. Bu ilkinin art\u0131k birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek abart\u0131 olur. Son tahlilde bu ikili birlikte hareket ederler.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1914430171\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki\u00a0 \u015fu s\u0131ralarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc nas\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131z. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ile piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da koptu\u011fu izlenimin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda\u00a0 iki olas\u0131l\u0131ktan birisi s\u00f6z konusudur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0\u00a0 Olas\u0131l\u0131klardan birisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin fiili durumu yans\u0131tm\u0131yor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Fazla h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc tahminler b\u00f6yle olabilir.\u00a0 \u0130kinci olas\u0131l\u0131k ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin do\u011fru, piyasalardaki risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve bunun do\u011furdu\u011fu\u00a0 iyimserlik\u00a0 ikliminin yanl\u0131\u015f\u00a0 olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Etraf\u0131n\u0131za bak\u0131n. Bu iki olas\u0131l\u0131ktan hangisi do\u011fruyu yans\u0131t\u0131yor? Neye karar verirseniz \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fc ona g\u00f6re okuyacaks\u0131n\u0131z.\u00a0 \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri yap\u0131yor, ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc buradan \u00fcr\u00fcyor derseniz mesele yok. Piyasalarda ba\u015flayan u\u00e7u\u015f temrinlerinin ekonominin genel ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile tutarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir bu. Canl\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcrecek demektir. Yok\u00a0 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerindeki h\u00fcz\u00fcn do\u011fruyu yans\u0131t\u0131yor, sorun piyasalar\u0131n bunun i\u00e7selle\u015ftirmeye yana\u015fmamas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor derseniz bu da son s\u0131ralardaki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yapay oldu\u011fu,\u00a0 ekonominin genel ko\u015fullar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan desteklenmedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir.\u00a0 Karar verin. Dikkatli olun. Belki de yapay bir\u00a0 canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonuna gelmi\u015f olabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta yine pek \u00e7ok konu g\u00fcndeme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0 Kimisine sadece g\u00f6z at\u0131p,\u00a0 kenara koyduk.\u00a0 Baz\u0131 konulara da daha dikkatli bakt\u0131k.\u00a0 Herkesin\u00a0 me\u015frebi farkl\u0131 tabii.\u00a0 Me\u015frebe&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11360\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}