{"id":1131,"date":"2011-06-07T09:02:17","date_gmt":"2011-06-07T06:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1131"},"modified":"2011-06-07T09:52:34","modified_gmt":"2011-06-07T06:52:34","slug":"merkez-bankasinin-isi-giderek-zorlasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-bankasinin-isi-giderek-zorlasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n i\u015fi giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ortada bu kadar belirsizlik varken ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselmeye ra\u011fmen, politika faizi neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3402954038\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yeni politikas\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya hen\u00fcz koymaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ralarda, Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) yetkililerince yap\u0131lan sunumlarda kullan\u0131lan \u00f6nemli iki grafik var. \u0130lkinde, farkl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u2018finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flayan politika faizi\u2019 ile \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan politika faizi\u2019 yer al\u0131yor. Bu grafik, \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyi belirgin bi\u00e7imde artarken finansal istikrar i\u00e7in gerekli olan faiz haddinin, fiyat istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekenden daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor MB\u2019nin. \u015e\u00f6yle: \u00dcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 olsun ve \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyi potansiyel \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyinin \u00fczerinde bulunsun ya da ona h\u0131zla yakla\u015fs\u0131n. Enflasyon hedefiyle uyumlu olan faiz d\u00fczeyinin, \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor Merkez Bankas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6n\u00fcnde iki se\u00e7enek var <\/strong><br \/>\nBu durumda \u00f6n\u00fcnde iki se\u00e7enek var: Birincisi, finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak \u00fczere, politika faizini artt\u0131rmak. B\u00f6yle bir tercihin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fu anda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel sorunlardan biri olan k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz giri\u015fini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, liran\u0131n daha da de\u011ferlenmesine ve cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131n biraz daha bozulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130kinci se\u00e7enek ise kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek.<br \/>\n\u0130kinci grafikte ise d\u00f6rt b\u00f6lge var. H\u0131zlanan enflasyona, h\u0131zl\u0131 ya da yava\u015f kredi geni\u015flemesi kar\u015f\u0131 gelebilir: Etti iki b\u00f6lge. Geriye kalan iki b\u00f6lge ise \u015f\u00f6yle: Enflasyon yava\u015flarken de kredi geni\u015flemesi h\u0131zl\u0131 ya da yava\u015f olabilir. Ekonominin bu d\u00f6rt b\u00f6lgeden hangisinde oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re iki para politikas\u0131 arac\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 belirleniyor. H\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinin oldu\u011fu iki b\u00f6lgeyi ele alal\u0131m. Bu durumda zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Kredi geni\u015flemesi h\u0131zl\u0131 iken enflasyon y\u00fckseliyorsa politika faizleri y\u00fckseltiliyor, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa politika faizi indiriliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Faiz neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc <\/strong><br \/>\nPara politikas\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorluk \u015furada: Merkez Bankas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltirken son d\u00f6nemde iki kez politika faizini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bunlardan sonuncusu 20 Ocak\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yukar\u0131da de\u011finilen bilgiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu durumda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oluyor MB? Yan\u0131t\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Bir: Kredi geni\u015flemesi arzulanandan h\u0131zl\u0131. \u0130ki: Enflasyon yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Ger\u00e7ekten de ocak sonunda yay\u0131mlanan raporda, MB\u2019nin 2011 sonu i\u00e7in bekledi\u011fi enflasyon, hedef ile uyumluydu. Enflasyon tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.9\u2019du (hedef 5.5). Oysa \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra, 28 Nisan\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan raporda bu orta nokta y\u00fczde 6.9\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi. May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyonu bu tahmin gibi karamsar oldu: Y\u00fczde 7.2.<br \/>\nSorular \u015f\u00f6yle: Ortada bu kadar belirsizlik varken ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselmeye ra\u011fmen maliye politikas\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla gev\u015fekken neden politika faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc? Maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesi MB raporlar\u0131nda hak etti\u011fi \u015fekilde ele\u015ftirilmiyorken ve ba\u015fka kurumlardan kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmesi i\u00e7in destek gelmiyorken, enflasyondaki son y\u00fckseli\u015f ve MB\u2019nin enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde \u00fc\u00e7 ayda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bozulma kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ne yap\u0131lacak? Yine zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131 y\u00fckseltilip, bu politikan\u0131n sonu\u00e7 vermesi i\u00e7in bankalar\u0131n alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi artt\u0131rmak \u00fczere, politika faizinin anlams\u0131zla\u015fmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na piyasadaki faizin bu faizden sapmas\u0131 m\u0131 sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak? Yoksa ocak sonunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen faiz mi artt\u0131r\u0131lacak? Belki de y\u00fckselen ama h\u00e2l\u00e2 hedefle uyumlu olan temel enflasyondan dem vurulur ve faiz artt\u0131r\u0131lmaz. Kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ise falanca g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilerek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131nda da bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmaz. Kim bilir?<br \/>\n\u00d6yle ya, zaten MB, mevcut belirsizlikler nedeniyle para politikas\u0131nda esnekli\u011fi sa\u011flamak \u00fczere sadece parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan s\u00f6z ediyor; tam olarak ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar belirsiz tutmak istemiyor muydu? Vars\u0131n bu belirsizli\u011fe ve maliye politikas\u0131ndaki olumsuz geli\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen be\u015f ay \u00f6nce politika faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olsun.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fatih \u00d6ZATAY<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ortada bu kadar belirsizlik varken ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselmeye ra\u011fmen, politika faizi neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Yeni politikas\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya hen\u00fcz koymaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ralarda, Merkez Bankas\u0131 (MB) yetkililerince&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}