{"id":11260,"date":"2012-02-05T23:34:40","date_gmt":"2012-02-05T21:34:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11260"},"modified":"2012-02-07T07:52:59","modified_gmt":"2012-02-07T05:52:59","slug":"borsadaki-yukselis-ve-kaotik-dinamikler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/borsadaki-yukselis-ve-kaotik-dinamikler\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsadaki Y\u00fckseli\u015f ve Kaotik Dinamikler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sizlerden sorular geliyor. En \u00f6nemli soru \u015fu;<strong> \u201cBorsadaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, faiz ve dolardaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve piyasalardaki mutluluk havas\u0131 ne zamana kadar devam eder?<\/strong>\u201d<br \/>\nBu t\u00fcr sorulara muhatap oldu\u011fumda, asl\u0131nda sorunun cevab\u0131 basittir; <strong>\u201cS\u0131cak para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kesilinceye kadar devam eder\u201d<\/strong> derim.<br \/>\nArkas\u0131ndan gelen soru daha zordur. <strong>S\u0131cak para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ne zaman kesilir?<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2721484816\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>EPFR sitesi, derlemi\u015f oldu\u011fu 17 binin \u00fczerindeki fonun hareketlerine bakarak, paran\u0131n nereye akt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 1 hafta gecikmeyle a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. S\u0131cak para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi herhalde 17 binin \u00fczerindeki fon y\u00f6neticisinin her birinin ne yapmay\u0131 ve bundan sonraki haftalarda nas\u0131l bir strateji izlemeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bilerek en do\u011fru \u015fekilde cevaplan\u0131r. Bu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, ba\u015fka bir yol bulmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar kaotik bir yap\u0131ya sahiptir. Zaman zaman piyasalarda kaos hakimdir. Bunu biraz a\u00e7al\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalardaki hareketler genelde rassal (rasgele) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiler. Bir fon y\u00f6neticisi satarken di\u011feri al\u0131r ama hepsi kendi kafalar\u0131ndakini yapar. Her birinin kafas\u0131nda bir senaryosu vard\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr rassal hareketlerin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu zamanlar, genellikle yeni bilgi olmamas\u0131 ve ko\u015fullar normal ve s\u00fcrprizlerin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlard\u0131r. \u00d6l\u00fcm\u00fczde sis olmas\u0131 ve ileriyi pek g\u00f6remedi\u011fimiz zamanlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Tonis Vaga, piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde su dolu bir kaba benzetiyor. Bu kap oda s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda masa \u00fczerinde duruyorsa, suyun i\u00e7erisindeki \u0131s\u0131 molek\u00fcllerinin hareketi rassal, yani rasgeledir. E\u011fer \u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f bir mikroskobun alt\u0131nda \u0131s\u0131 molek\u00fcllerini izliyor olsayd\u0131k, her birinin birbirlerinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z rasgele hareketler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6recektik. E\u011fer bu kabu masan\u0131n \u00fczerinden al\u0131p, bir ate\u015fin \u00fczerine koyarsan\u0131z ne olur?<\/p>\n<p>Is\u0131 alttan gelmeye devam ettik\u00e7e \u0131s\u0131 molek\u00fcllerinde bir heyecan ve karma\u015f\u0131k hareketler ba\u015flar. Yani Kaotik ortama ge\u00e7ilir. Hareketler sert ve ani haller almaya ba\u015flar. \u0130\u015fte bu a\u015fama tam kaos a\u015famas\u0131d\u0131r. Fakat bu a\u015famay\u0131 Coherent (d\u00fczeli) piyasa dedi\u011fimiz a\u015fama izler. Is\u0131 devam ettik\u00e7e, bir bakars\u0131n\u0131z ki, birbirlerinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket eden bu molek\u00fcller sanki s\u00f6z birli\u011fi etmi\u015fcesine yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde harekete ba\u015flarlar ve \u0131s\u0131nan molek\u00fcller yukar\u0131 do\u011fru giderken, \u00fcst tarafta so\u011fuyan molek\u00fcller de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 do\u011fru d\u00fczenli bir hareket yaparlar. Yani kaotik ortamdan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve d\u00fczenli ortama ge\u00e7ilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Kaynama noktas\u0131nda ise, co\u015fku vard\u0131r. Su molek\u00fclleri y\u00fckselerek en tepe noktada baloncuklar olu\u015fturular. Aynen piyasalarda olu\u015fan balonlar gibi. Art\u0131k b\u00fct\u00fcn molek\u00fcller ayn\u0131 hareketi yapmakta ve bir s\u00fcr\u00fc balon olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r. D\u00fczenli piyasalar\u0131n sonucunda tepe noktalar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Piyasada i\u015flem hacmi artar, herkesin dikkati piyasalar\u0131n \u00fczerindedir.<br \/>\nNe zamana kadar?<\/p>\n<p>Tabi ki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan verilen \u0131s\u0131 kesilene kadar. Ya da ate\u015f \u00fczerindeki kap oradan al\u0131n\u0131p bir buz k\u00fctlesinin \u00fczerine konursa neler olur?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-987109838\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Evet yepyeni bir bilgi gelmi\u015f ve yap\u0131sal bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmu\u015ftur. Alttan \u0131s\u0131 alan molek\u00fcller bir bakarlar ki alttan \u0131s\u0131 de\u011fil, ciddi bir so\u011fukluk (negatif \u0131s\u0131) gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu a\u015famada herkes ne oldu\u011funu anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nce yapt\u0131klar\u0131 hareketin tersini yapmaya ba\u015flarlar. Bu s\u0131rada alttan gelen so\u011fukluk hen\u00fcz tepe noktalara ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tepe noktalar\u0131ndakilerin bunu anlamas\u0131 \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<br \/>\nSon alt\u0131 ay\u0131 bu ba\u011flamda de\u011ferlendirecek olursak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130lk A\u015fama- Coherent (d\u00fczenli) D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Piyasas\u0131:<\/strong> AB\u2019nin ciddi sorunlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu, \u00fclkelerin notlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi; \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n tahvil faizlerinin daha da artaca\u011f\u0131; bankalar\u0131n dolar bulmakta zorlnad\u0131klar\u0131, likiditeye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131, sermaye bulmakta zorlanacaklar\u0131 beklentileriyle d\u00fczenli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (ay\u0131) piyasas\u0131 hakimdi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130kinci A\u015fama- Kaotik Piyasa :<\/strong> AB liderleri topland\u0131, AB liderlerinin tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131 mali disiplin konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fine vard\u0131lar; d\u00fcnyan\u0131n be\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 AB bankalar\u0131na dolar swap hatt\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131 ve faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) 3 y\u0131l vadeli y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1 faizli likidite imkan\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131; Avrupa bankalar\u0131 tahminlerin \u00fczerinde ilkidite kulland\u0131; Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kab\u0131n alt\u0131ndan \u0131s\u0131 verildi. Yeni bilgi vard\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n \u0131s\u0131 molek\u00fclleri (para y\u00f6neticileri) \u00f6nemli karar de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine ba\u015flad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc A\u015fama- Coherent (d\u00fczenli) Y\u00fckseli\u015f Piyasas\u0131:<\/strong> Tam da yeni y\u0131l gelmi\u015fti ve para y\u00f6netenler bir y\u0131ll\u0131k projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131lar ve Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci haftas\u0131ndan itibaren art\u0131k Avrupa\u2019da banka batmayaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131lar. Gerektik\u00e7e likidite sa\u011flanacakt\u0131 ve ucuz paray\u0131 da bulunca hisse ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda al\u0131ma ge\u00e7tiler. B\u00fct\u00fcn \u0131s\u0131 molek\u00fclleri birlikte hareket etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fken, FED enflasyon hedefini y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltip, s\u0131f\u0131r faiz imkan\u0131n\u0131 2014\u2019e kadar devam ettirece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 (kab\u0131n alt\u0131ndan verilen \u0131s\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131). Gelen olumsuz haberler, (yunanistan veya Portekiz\u2019\u0130n de Yunanistana benzeyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin ani stresler) d\u00fczenli y\u00fckseli\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131 pek bozmad\u0131. Bazen bu haberler piyasalardaki co\u015fkuyu bozsa da, d\u00fczenli y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-510624260\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Bundan sonra ne olacak?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ana trend bir s\u00fcre daha devam edecek. Kab\u0131n alttan verilen \u0131s\u0131s\u0131 kesilse de bunun fark\u0131na var\u0131lmas\u0131 zaman al\u0131r. Hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck co\u015fkular da ya\u015fanmad\u0131 ve sokaktaki s\u0131radan insan daha yeni yeni borsadaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi sormaya ba\u015flarken, dolardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam edece\u011fine inanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ama d\u00fczenli y\u00fckseli\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bitece\u011fine dair ilk sinyaller enformasyon-formasyon uyumsuzlu\u011fu ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u015fu s\u0131ralar olumsuz haber gelse bile sadece bir g\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor ama ana trend devam ediyor. Fakat bir g\u00fcn bakaca\u011f\u0131z ki \u00e7ok \u00e7ok olumlu bir haber gelmesine ra\u011fmen piyasalar buna ilk anda fazla olumlu reaksiyon vermedi\u011fi gibi, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Hisseler daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckten kapat\u0131rken, dolar ve faizler y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu anki a\u015famada borsadaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, dolardaki ve faizdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 1 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcrede olduk\u00e7a iyi k\u00e2r b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, son 3 haftadi co\u015fkulu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc trend bu hafta yerini dinlenmeye b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. Ama tersine bir trendin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. \u00d6yle oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmde veya o s\u00fcrecin sinyalleri geldi\u011finde sizlerle payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u015eA\u011eIDAK\u0130 YAZI, BU HAFTA PARA DERG\u0130S\u0130NDEK\u0130 YAZIMDIR (farkl\u0131 bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta biraz piyasalara bakaca\u011f\u0131z. Ama bu bak\u0131\u015f orta ve uzun vadeden ziyade biraz k\u0131sa vadeli olacak. Piyasalar\u0131n co\u015fkulu zamanlar\u0131nda genellikle herkes miyoptur. Orta ve uzun vadeyi zaten g\u00f6rmek istemez, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u0131sa vadede iyi k\u00e2r vard\u0131r.\u00a0 Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla biraz da trader (al\u0131p-satan) mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla hareket edenlere \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Borsaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 60.148 seviyesinden kapand\u0131. En y\u00fcksek 60.433 seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Tabi ki bu a\u015famaya kadar al\u0131m yapamam\u0131\u015f ve bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 da ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u201cDaha da yukar\u0131 gider mi? Giderse nereye kadar gider? Sorular\u0131n\u0131 soruyor. \u015eu ana kadar trene binemedik, bari \u015fimdi binelim mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u015funu s\u00f6yleyeyim ki;\u00a0 Ocak ve \u015eubat aylar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda E\u011fer Ocak ay\u0131nda \u00e7ok sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olmu\u015fsa genellikle \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ikinci bir defa \u00e7ok sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklenmemeli<\/p>\n<table width=\"201\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u0130MKB100<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">ENDEKS\u0130<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">OCAK (%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u015eUBAT (%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1991<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 27.27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21.43<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1992<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11.36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0 24.49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1993<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 34.09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1994<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a02.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0 25.37<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1995<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.69<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1996<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 23.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 22.22<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1997<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 64.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1998<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.79<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">1999<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 51.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2001<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a013.22<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0 17.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2002<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0 16.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2003<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.92<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2004<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2005<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2006<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2007<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2008<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0 23.12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.87<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2009<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.46<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2010<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.46<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.05<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2011<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"71\">\n<p align=\"center\">2012<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td valign=\"bottom\" nowrap=\"nowrap\" width=\"65\">\n<p align=\"center\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu tabloda Endeksin Ocak ve \u015eubat ay\u0131 getirileri veriliyor. Tabloda 21 y\u0131l var. \u00d6nemli noktalar\u0131 vurgulayacak olursak;<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\">\n<li>13 tane Ocak ay\u0131nda ARTI getiri, 8 Tanesinde EKS\u0130 getiri sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130lgin\u00e7tir ki, ayn\u0131 durum \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli, 13 tane \u015fubat ay\u0131nda art\u0131, 8 tane \u015eubat ay\u0131nda eksi getiri var.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li>Yine \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7tir ki, 13 tane y\u0131lda Ocak ay\u0131 ve \u015eubat ay\u0131 getirisi ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde art\u0131 y\u00f6nde olmu\u015f.\u00a0 Di\u011fer 8 y\u0131lda ise biri art\u0131 di\u011feri eksi veya her ikisi de eksi olmu\u015f.<\/li>\n<li>\u015eu soruyu cevaplayal\u0131m. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere bu y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda borsa y\u00fczde 11.52 artt\u0131. Acaba \u00a0Ocak ay\u0131nda getiri ARTI \u00a0olmu\u015fken, \u015eubat ay\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda \u00a0Ocak ay\u0131ndaki getiriden daha y\u00fcksek bir getiri sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f m\u0131?\u00a0 Evet \u00f6yle bir durum olmu\u015f. <strong>Ama sadece bir defa olmu\u015f<\/strong>. 1993 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda getiri y\u00fczde 10 olurken, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 34 olmu\u015f. Fakat di\u011fer y\u0131llar incelendi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, Ocak ay\u0131ndaki getiri ARTI oldu\u011fu zaman, \u015eubat ay\u0131 di\u011fer 12 tane y\u0131lda hep Ocak ay\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiri sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu istatistik bana diyor ki, \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde \u015fu ana kadar zaten y\u00fczde 5.21 getiri olu\u015ftu. \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki getirinin Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 21\u2019de bir ise, \u015eubat ay\u0131 getirisi en iyi ihtimalle y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131nda olur. Yani \u015fu andan itibaren yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak y\u00fczde 5 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha var. Fakat ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131l ortalamalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise endeksin \u015fubat ay\u0131nda 61.500-62.000\u2019deki direncini k\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOT: ALt\u0131n, dolar ve Euro-Dolar paritesi yorumlar\u0131m\u0131 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uzmanforex.com\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.uzmanforex.com<\/a> sitesinden okuyabilirsiniz. Haftada \u00fc\u00e7 defa yorum ge\u00e7iyorum.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sizlerden sorular geliyor. En \u00f6nemli soru \u015fu; \u201cBorsadaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, faiz ve dolardaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve piyasalardaki mutluluk havas\u0131 ne zamana kadar devam eder?\u201d Bu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}