{"id":11192,"date":"2012-02-03T10:47:59","date_gmt":"2012-02-03T08:47:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11192"},"modified":"2012-02-03T10:48:11","modified_gmt":"2012-02-03T08:48:11","slug":"merkez-bankasi-sert-inis-istemiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-bankasi-sert-inis-istemiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 Sert \u0130ni\u015f \u0130stemiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Her zamanki gibi raporda geride kalan d\u00f6nem irdeleniyor ve bununla ilgili \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak raporun esas \u00f6nemi burada yatm\u0131yor. Yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk raporunun\u00a0 20012 ve 2013 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon hedeflerini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor ve bu arada para politikas\u0131n\u0131 da yeniden belirliyor olmas\u0131 daha \u00f6nemli.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2755133358\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Enflasyon raporu benzeri zengin malzeme y\u00fckl\u00fc metinleri farkl\u0131 eksenlerden ele al\u0131p de\u011ferlendirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin rapor sadece enflasyon s\u00fcrecinin ince ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan okunabilir; ya da metnin enflasyon ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 geri plana \u00e7ekilip, para politikas\u0131 metni olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131labilir. Bunlar\u0131n uygun bir kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da olabilir.\u00a0 2012&#8217;nin ilk enflasyon raporu da bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlardan herhangi birisine uygun bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirilebilir ku\u015fkusuz. Son g\u00fcnlerde rapor \u00fczerinde yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmelerin \u00e7o\u011fu da bu t\u00fcr yakla\u015f\u0131mlar i\u00e7eriyor zaten.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Kendi ad\u0131ma son enflasyon raporunda b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan biraz daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Raporda belki \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k ve net olmayan, sanki biraz da sat\u0131r aralar\u0131na saklanm\u0131\u015f gibi duran farkl\u0131 bir politika ekseni\u00a0 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Merkez Bankas\u0131 yine enflasyon de\u011ferlendirmeleri yap\u0131yor, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 irdeliyor vs. Ama b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n arka plan\u0131nda yer alan, kan\u0131mca raporun esas \u00f6nemli noktas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan enflasyon- b\u00fcy\u00fcme ekseninde yap\u0131lan temel bir\u00a0 politika\u00a0 tercihi var. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk enflasyon raporunu farkl\u0131 ve \u00f6nemli yapan da bu.<\/p>\n<p>Bana kal\u0131rsa hem enflasyon hedeflerinin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesinde hem de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l\u0131n para politikas\u0131 karakterinin belirlenmesinde bu noktadaki tercih \u00f6nemli rol oynuyor. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k ifade etmem gerekirse, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n,\u00a0 mevcut\u00a0 konjonkt\u00fcrde, enflasyon- b\u00fcy\u00fcme ikilisi aras\u0131nda \u00f6nceli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verdi\u011fini\u00a0 enflasyon hedefini de buna g\u00f6re yeniden belirledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0 En az\u0131ndan, enflasyon hedefinin y\u00fckseltilmesinde rol oynayan etkenler aras\u0131nda bu tercihin \u00f6nemli ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yer tuttu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Bu\u00a0 noktada\u00a0 i\u015fin ilgin\u00e7 bir boyutu daha var.\u00a0 Genel olarak 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmede bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc biliyoruz. S\u00f6z konusu yava\u015flaman\u0131n yumu\u015fak m\u0131 yoksa sert mi olaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n da son g\u00fcnlerin en s\u0131cak konular\u0131ndan birisi oldu\u011fu malums Yava\u015flama sert olacak diyenler ekonominin 2012&#8242; de y\u00fczde iki ya da alt\u0131 bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. IMF gibi bu y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde\u00a0 0.4 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani ekonominin tepe \u00fcst\u00fc yere \u00e7ak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler de var. Yava\u015flama yumu\u015fak olacak diyenler de y\u00fczde d\u00f6rt ya da \u00fcst\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Rapordan Merkez Bankas\u0131 yava\u015flama s\u00fcrecinde tercihini yumu\u015fak ini\u015ften yana kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Banka b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sert bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n do\u011fru olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu ba\u011flamda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizi de sa\u011flam. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ko\u015fullarda enflasyon hedefini yakalamak i\u00e7in ek bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n zaten yava\u015flama e\u011filiminde olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha da yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (sert ini\u015f!) ve bunun da enflasyonla m\u00fccadele maliyetini b\u00fcy\u00fctece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor Merkez Bankas\u0131. Bunun hem kuramsal temelleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem de g\u00fcn\u00fcn ko\u015fullar\u0131na uygunluk bak\u0131m\u0131ndan do\u011fru bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4021110643\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kendi ad\u0131ma, Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon hedefine tak\u0131l\u0131 kal\u0131p, sert ini\u015fi k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtan bir para otoritesi durumuna d\u00fc\u015fmeyi reddediyor olmas\u0131ndan memnunum. Ekonominin orta vadeli\u00a0 perspektifi\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bunun do\u011fru bir duru\u015f oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00f6ylenenlerden Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n enflasyonu b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle bo\u015flama e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu gibi bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lmas\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f olur. Durum b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Banka daha \u00f6nceden 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.2\u00a0 olarak belirledi\u011fi enflasyon hedefini \u015fimdi y\u00fczde 6.5 d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckseltiyor.\u00a0 Dikkat edilirse,\u00a0 y\u00fckseltilen\u00a0 2012 hedefi\u00a0 2011 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131 olan 10.5 d\u00fczeyinden\u00a0 4 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen,\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon\u00a0 hedefi\u00a0 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n fiili enflasyon d\u00fczeyinin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l enflasyonun yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak yava\u015flama dozunun \u00f6nceden \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemektedir. Bu durumda\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle vazge\u00e7ti\u011fini, sorumsuz bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sevdas\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemek do\u011fru olmaz diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Her zamanki gibi raporda geride kalan d\u00f6nem irdeleniyor ve bununla ilgili \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak raporun esas&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}