{"id":11183,"date":"2012-02-03T10:41:20","date_gmt":"2012-02-03T08:41:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11183"},"modified":"2012-02-03T10:41:31","modified_gmt":"2012-02-03T08:41:31","slug":"her-sey-iyiyse-kuru-yuk-endeksi-neden-geriliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/her-sey-iyiyse-kuru-yuk-endeksi-neden-geriliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Her \u015eey \u0130yiyse Kuru Y\u00fck Endeksi Neden Geriliyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Borsalar bir yandan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1 faizle verdi\u011fi eurolar\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan Fed\u2019in \u201cbedava para program\u0131n\u0131\u201d 2014 sonuna kadar uzataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fmesiyle co\u015ftular. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz senenin ac\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmak ister gibiler.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1343863706\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sene h\u00fcz\u00fcnl\u00fc bitmi\u015fti, ancak \u2018yeni sene, yeni ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7, yeni \u015fans\u2019 s\u00f6ylemiyle likidite r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 arkas\u0131na alarak t\u0131rmn\u0131yorlar! Bir s\u00fcre daha da gidece\u011fe benziyorlar. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u201cbor\u00e7 silme\u201d opearasyonunun \u2018ba\u015far\u0131yla\u2019 sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinin de eli kula\u011f\u0131ndad\u0131r, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle bug\u00fcn gelir. Her ne kadar y\u00fczde 70\u2019e ula\u015facak olan (sadece \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 kapsayan bu indirim bile \u201ckom\u015fuyu\u201d kurtarmayabilir!) ve AB bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00e7ok da iyi olmayan bu haber bile i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz \u201cralli ortam\u0131nda\u201d yeni bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilir! Borsalar y\u00fckselirken geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerden kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k mesajlar geliyor. ABD Case-Schiller konut endeksi d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam ederken k\u00fcresel PMI (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi) 51.2 ile son 7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler ortas\u0131nda; neredeyse t\u00fcm varl\u0131k piyasaalr\u0131 y\u00fckselirken; bir d\u00f6nem k\u00fcresel ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergelerinden biri kabul edilen Balt\u0131k Kuru Y\u00fck \u0130ndeksi (Baltic Dry \u0130ndex BDI) d\u00fcn 662 ile tarihi dip seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. K\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesinde, 11 May\u0131s 2008 tarihinde 11.793\u2019e y\u00fckselen bu endeks, kr\u00fcz\u00fcn en \u015fiddetli hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2008\u2019de 666\u2019ya kadar gerilemi\u015fti!<\/p>\n<p>Peki neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor bu endeks? Bir ka\u00e7 sebebi \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralayabiliriz:<\/p>\n<p>1- Kriz \u00f6ncesi 2006-2009 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u0131smarlanan yeni Capesize\u2019lar (110 bin + dtw tonluk \u015filepler) denize indiler, \u00d6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck gemi arz\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n<p>2- Japonya\u2019daki n\u00fckleer felaket ve son haftalarda Brezilya\u2019daki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar gibi nedenlerle ta\u015f\u0131nacak mal mikatr\u0131nda \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fanabiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>3- En b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cta\u015f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131\u201d \u00c7in\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015fl\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 artt\u0131rmak gibi \u00f6zellikle konuut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki balonu indirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemler \u00c7in\u2019deki eb\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etki yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>4- Dev gemiler (Capsize\u2019lar) \u201cba\u015faba\u015f\u201d noktas\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya raz\u0131 olunca; Handymax (40-60) ve Panamax\u2019lar\u0131n (10-40 dwt) navlunlar\u0131 iyiden iyiye geriliyor&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2316558291\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>5- 2009\u2019da \u00e7elik hurda fiyatlar\u0131 halen daha y\u00fcksekti ve o g\u00fcnlerde eski gemileri hurdaya ay\u0131rmak \u201canlaml\u0131yd\u0131\u201d. Bir yandan cari hurda fiyatlar\u0131 o g\u00fcnlerdeki kadar y\u00fcksek olmamas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131, di\u011fer yandan halen daha bu gemiler \u00fczerindeki kredi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinden dolay\u0131 gemilerin hurdaya ayr\u0131lmas\u0131, yani gemi arz\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ol(a)m\u0131yor!<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu endekse bak\u0131p da k\u00fcresel ekonomi k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidiyor demek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Bunu s\u00f6ylemek yukar\u0131daki sebepleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda pek do\u011fru de\u011fil. Yine de bu ekdeksteki pozitif geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ne\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde piyasaalrca kullan\u0131l\u0131rsa sizleri .\u00e7ok da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l \u00f6nemli g\u00f6sterge \u00c7in borsas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana gerileyen ve 6 Ocak\u2019ta 2.132 ile en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6ren \u015eangay (Composite) endeksi k\u00fcresel borsalarla birlikte a\u011f\u0131r aksak y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6nceki g\u00fcn 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan \u00c7in borsa endeksi i\u00e7in as\u0131l s\u0131nav \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 2.325 seviyelerinde ya\u015fanacak.<\/p>\n<p>Bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019de de i\u015flerin toparland\u0131\u011f\u00fc\u0131 fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. \u00c7in toparlan\u0131rsa BCI\u2019da onu takip eder mi, hep birlikte izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2896221712\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Borsalar bir yandan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1 faizle verdi\u011fi eurolar\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan Fed\u2019in \u201cbedava para program\u0131n\u0131\u201d 2014 sonuna kadar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11183\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}