{"id":11126,"date":"2012-02-02T09:03:36","date_gmt":"2012-02-02T07:03:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11126"},"modified":"2012-02-02T09:03:48","modified_gmt":"2012-02-02T07:03:48","slug":"2011de-dis-ticaret","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2011de-dis-ticaret\/","title":{"rendered":"2011\u2019de D\u0131\u015f Ticaret"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon raporunu ilk kez \u0130stanbul\u2019da tan\u0131tt\u0131. Gitmek istiyordum ama karl\u0131 havay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnce vazge\u00e7tim. Art\u0131k y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rt raporundan ikisi zaten \u0130stanbul\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Temmuz\u2019da hava muhalefeti olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanmam.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-34107477\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Enflasyon raporu para politikas\u0131n\u0131n temel metnidir. O a\u00e7\u0131dan merakla bekleniyordu. \u0130\u00e7eri\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zengin bir rapor olmu\u015f. \u0130\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f konjonkt\u00fcr analizini doyurucu buldum. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n teknik kapasitesi \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Keyifle okudum.<\/p>\n<p>Yeni bilgiler de var. Bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc medyaya yans\u0131d\u0131. Biliyorum, para politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131n\u0131z. Ama h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcncelli\u011fini koruyor. S\u0131ras\u0131 geldik\u00e7e ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na girmek istiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 e\u011fitim raporu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Maalesef daha elime ge\u00e7medi. Bir \u00f6nceki raporu 2006 ba\u015f\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu k\u00f6\u015fede \u00fc\u00e7 yaz\u0131 ile de\u011ferlendirdim (\u015eubat 2006). \u00c7ok \u00f6nemsiyorum. \u0130lk f\u0131rsatta g\u00f6zlemlerimi sizlerle payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tarihi rekorlar y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Aral\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. S\u00fcrpriz yoktu. Ayl\u0131k ihracat y\u00fczde 6 art\u0131\u015fla 12.5 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. \u0130thalat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n 20.6 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde kald\u0131. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 600 milyon dolar azald\u0131; 8.1 milyar dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k say\u0131lara d\u00f6nelim. 2011\u2019de ihracat y\u00fczde 18,5 artarak 135 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Takvim y\u0131l\u0131 baz\u0131nda tarihi rekordur. Ancak 12 ayl\u0131k toplam ihracat Eyl\u00fcl 2008\u2019de 136 milyar dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Paritedeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n etkisinden kurtarmak i\u00e7in \u201c0.5 $ + 0.5 euro\u201d d\u00f6viz sepeti baz\u0131nda bak\u0131yorum. \u0130hracat 2011\u2019de 113 milyar dolar ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bilgi i\u00e7in: Eyl\u00fcl 2008\u2019de 109 milyar dolar olmu\u015ftu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2820196183\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka tarihi rekor ithalattan geldi. Y\u00fczde 30 artarak 241 milyar dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Bu arada kas\u0131mdan aral\u0131\u011fa y\u0131ll\u0131k ithalat\u0131n sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekelim. En az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in ithalat\u0131n zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Ya d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131? Y\u0131l\u0131 106 milyar dolar ile bitirdi. Takvim y\u0131l\u0131 baz\u0131nda tarihi bir rekordur. Ancak 12 ayl\u0131k toplamda rekor ekimin: 107 milyar dolar. Yani y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yava\u015f da olsa k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>E\u011filim do\u011fru y\u00f6nde<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2012\u2019de \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d senaryosu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile takvim ve mevsim etkisi temizlenmi\u015f son \u00e7eyrek verileri \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3199285746\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ne g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz? Ekim, kas\u0131m ve aral\u0131kta ayl\u0131k ihracat bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla az da olsa (y\u00fczde 1-2) art\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ayl\u0131k ithalat azal\u0131yor (y\u00fczde 1-6). \u00c7eyrek baz\u0131nda ise, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla ihracatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (y\u00fczde 4,2) ithalat\u0131n (y\u00fczde 5,5) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Anlam\u0131na bakal\u0131m. Euro krizi ihracatta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fa izin vermiyor. Ama d\u00f6viz kuru ve gev\u015feyen i\u00e7 talep ithalat\u0131 frenliyor. Neticede d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k daral\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d i\u00e7in yeterli midir? Kritik g\u00f6sterge 2012 ilk \u00e7eyrek ithalat\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon raporunu ilk kez \u0130stanbul\u2019da tan\u0131tt\u0131. Gitmek istiyordum ama karl\u0131 havay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnce vazge\u00e7tim. Art\u0131k y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rt raporundan ikisi zaten \u0130stanbul\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Temmuz\u2019da hava&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11126\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}