12.01.2011<\/div>\n

Eveeet\u2026<\/div>\n

Biraz uzun bir ara verdikten sonra yeniden birlikteyiz\u2026 Borsada tahmin yapmak ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131 dizisinde sona yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/div>\n

Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 100 k\u00e2r etmek i\u00e7in her 15 g\u00fcnde bir net y\u00fczde 3.3 getiri sa\u011flarsan\u0131z, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fc bulabilece\u011finizi belirtmi\u015ftik. Elbette ki; burada anlatmak istedi\u011fim \u015fey illaki y\u00fczde 100 getiriye odaklanmak de\u011fildir. \u00d6nemli olan nokta bizlere \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gibi gelen bir getiri oran\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde sa\u011fl\u0131yor olmakt\u0131r.<\/div>\n

Ne demi\u015ftik; \u201cHocam ben al\u0131m yerlerini \u00e7ok iyi biliyorum ama bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc satmay\u0131 beceremiyorum\u201d sorular\u0131 en \u00e7ok gelen sorulard\u0131. Satmay\u0131 becermek zaten m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc beyin hep en tepede satmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r ama, \u00f6nemli olan en tepede satmak de\u011fil, hedeflenen k\u00e2r\u0131 yakalamakt\u0131r. Siz hedefledi\u011finiz k\u00e2ra ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra ka\u011f\u0131t isterse yeni tepeler yaps\u0131n, bu \u00f6nemli de\u011fildir. \u00d6nemli olan \u015fey, sizin bir sisteminiz olmas\u0131 ve bu sisteme g\u00f6re hareket ediyor olman\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/div>\n

Borsada hisseden kazanmak i\u00e7in sadece tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc davranmak zorundas\u0131n\u0131z. Yani sadece alarak kazanabilirsiniz. Ger\u00e7i a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f kural\u0131 var ama up-tick denilen pasife yazarak satma kural\u0131 nedeniyle bu pek uygulanm\u0131yor. E\u011fer sadece al\u0131m yaparak kazanacaksan\u0131z, o zaman hisseyi uygun fiyattan alman\u0131z gerekiyor. Bu uygun fiyat; temel olarak uygun fiyat ve teknik olarak uygun fiyat olarak adland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/div>\n

Benim anlataca\u011f\u0131m y\u00f6ntem az\u0131c\u0131k temel analiz, ama \u00e7o\u011funlukla teknik analiz kural\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Ben bu kural\u0131 yazd\u0131ktan sonra \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok spek\u00fclasyon yap\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden ben de g\u00fcnlerdir \u201cacaba yazsam m\u0131, yazmasam m\u0131?\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc belki de insanlar yanl\u0131\u015f kullanacaklar ve sorun ya\u015fayacaklar. Yani mutfaktaki b\u0131\u00e7ak \u00e7ok faydal\u0131 bir ara\u00e7t\u0131r. Ama 1-2 ya\u015f\u0131nda bir \u00e7ocu\u011fun eline ge\u00e7erse, \u00e7ok tehlikeli olabilir. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden yaz\u0131m\u0131 son mesajlar\u0131 verip bitirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcm. Fakat b\u00f6yle yaparsam da, daha \u00f6nce verdi\u011fim s\u00f6z\u00fc tutmam\u0131\u015f ve asl\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir kural yok da varm\u0131\u015f gibi davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131m s\u00f6ylenecekti. \u0130ki arada bir derede kald\u0131m. Sonunda yazmaya karar verdim. Ama \u015fartlar\u0131m var;<\/div>\n

Bu al-sat kural\u0131 ile ilgili olarak bana gelen hi\u00e7bir maili ve yorumu cevaplamayaca\u011f\u0131m. Ne anlat\u0131yorsam odur. Siz ne anl\u0131yorsan\u0131z onu deneyebilirsiniz. Uygulamaya kalkarsan\u0131z ciddi zararlara da yol a\u00e7abilirsiniz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc baz\u0131 yerlerde subjektif yarg\u0131 kullanman\u0131z gerekecek.<\/div>\n

Bu sistemi, son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fck testler yapmak yerine bir fiil uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 yaparak sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tutu\u011fum i\u00e7in; en az 2000 tane durumu incelemeden ve istatistiklerini \u00e7\u0131karmadan fikir sahibi olmay\u0131n\u0131z. Beyin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck say\u0131lar yasas\u0131na g\u00f6re i\u015fler. Bu al-sat kural\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcn uygulamaya ba\u015flasan\u0131z ve 3 defa arka arkaya kaybettirirse, zaten otomatik olarak vazge\u00e7eceksiniz. Halbuki, bir kural\u0131n uzun vadede ve her piyasa ko\u015fulunda test edilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir. Yani 2008 krizinde de uygulam\u0131\u015f olacaks\u0131n\u0131z, kriz sonras\u0131 sert y\u00fckseli\u015fte de uygulam\u0131\u015f olacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Aksi halde y\u00f6ntem tutarl\u0131 olmaz.<\/div>\n

\u015eimdi verece\u011fim sitemin \u00f6zelli\u011fi, y\u00fczde 78 olas\u0131l\u0131kla size 2 hafta i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fczde 3-3.5 aras\u0131nda getiri sa\u011flayacak olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

Bu yeme\u011fi yapmak i\u00e7in \u015fu malzemelere ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z var;<\/div>\n

1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u015eirketin \u00f6zsermayesi (negatif olmamal\u0131)<\/div>\n

2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u015eirketin PD\/DD (Piyasa de\u011feri\/defter de\u011feri oran\u0131)<\/div>\n

3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0TKE g\u00f6stergesi<\/div>\n

4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0G\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem miktar\u0131 (lot baz\u0131nda)<\/div>\n

TKE g\u00f6stergesinin matriksdeki form\u00fcl\u00fc \u015f\u00f6yledir;<\/div>\n

(STOFK(14,6)+RSI(14)+CCI(14)+MFI(14)+WILLR(14)+MO(14)+ULT(7,14,28))\/7;0;80;20<\/div>\n

Bu form\u00fcl\u00fc kopyalay\u0131p MATRIKS program\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde indicator builder\u2019a yap\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p g\u00f6stergenize de TKE ad\u0131n\u0131 verebilirsiniz. (Bunun nas\u0131l yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir soruyu cevaplamayaca\u011f\u0131m. Bu konuda Matriks teknik destekten yard\u0131m alabilirsiniz. E\u011fer matriks ya da metastock kullanm\u0131yorsan\u0131z veya i\u00e7erisinde indicator geli\u015ftirebilece\u011finiz bir teknik analiz program\u0131 kullanm\u0131yorsan\u0131z zaten bunu uygulama imkan\u0131n\u0131z olmayacakt\u0131r. )<\/div>\n

Kurallar:<\/div>\n

1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Asla \u00f6zsermayesi negatif olan bir \u015firkette bu kural\u0131 uygulamayacaks\u0131n\u0131z\u2026<\/div>\n

2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u015eirketin PD\/DD oran\u0131\u00a0tarihsel olarak en y\u00fcksek seviyesinin en az y\u00fczde 20 alt\u0131nda olmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir \u015firketin ge\u00e7mi\u015f iki\u00a0y\u0131ll\u0131k PD\/DD oranlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek de\u011fer 2 civar\u0131ndaysa, bunun y\u00fczde 20\u2019sini hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda 0.40 yap\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla inceledi\u011finiz ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131n PD\/DD oran\u0131 1.60 veya alt\u0131nda olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0TKE g\u00f6stergesi \u00e7izdirildi\u011finde\u00a020\u2019nin alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bi\u00e7imde en az \u00fc\u00e7 tane dip yapmal\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dip seviye 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olabilir ama 40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dibin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yerdeki fiyat, TKE\u2019nin\u00a0birinci ve ikinci dip seviyelerine denk gelen kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

5.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dipten sonra, g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem miktar\u0131 \u00f6nceki 10 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde fiyatlar yeni bir dip yapmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

6.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Al\u0131m an\u0131; \u00a0\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dipten sonra yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde ve en az\u0131ndan TKE g\u00f6stergesi 30 seviyesine geldi\u011finde ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem miktar\u0131 da 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem miktar\u0131 ortalamsa\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

7.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Sat\u0131\u015f yeri ise al\u0131m yap\u0131lan fiyat\u0131n y\u00fczde 3-4 yukar\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

8.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Zarar\u0131na sat\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 ise al\u0131m yap\u0131lan fiyattan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen en dip seviyenin 2 kademe alt\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n

T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n \u00f6rnekleri bir sonraki yaz\u0131da video olarak size verilecektir.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12.01.2011 Eveeet\u2026 Biraz uzun bir ara verdikten sonra yeniden birlikteyiz\u2026 Borsada tahmin yapmak ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131 dizisinde sona yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 100 k\u00e2r etmek i\u00e7in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}