{"id":11092,"date":"2012-02-01T09:32:23","date_gmt":"2012-02-01T07:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11092"},"modified":"2012-02-01T09:32:35","modified_gmt":"2012-02-01T07:32:35","slug":"ocak-ayi-olumlu-gecti-sonrasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ocak-ayi-olumlu-gecti-sonrasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ocak Ay\u0131 &#8216;Olumlu&#8217; Ge\u00e7ti. Sonras\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011&#8217;in son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131na g\u00f6re 2012&#8217;nin ilk ay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu ge\u00e7ti. K\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar biraz olsun rahatlad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye de yans\u0131d\u0131 bu olumlu durum. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve piyasa faizi bir miktar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ho\u015f, k\u00fcresel krizde en k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemden (muhtemelen 2009 sonuna do\u011fru) bu yana risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131nda benzer dalgalanmalar \u00e7ok ya\u015fand\u0131 ama yine de i\u015flerin daha k\u00f6t\u00fcye gitmemi\u015f olmas\u0131na sevinmek gerekiyor. Son bir ay i\u00e7inde olan bitene bak\u0131nca \u015fu geli\u015fmeler \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1866275839\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonundaki zirvede AB liderleri Avrupa&#8217;da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mali disiplinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak baz\u0131 ilke kararlar\u0131 ald\u0131lar. Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni zirvede, \u0130ngiltere ve \u0130sve\u00e7 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan \u00fclkeler bu karal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar. Hen\u00fcz ortada somut bir ad\u0131m olmamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u00f6nemli. Zira Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (ECB) &#8216;g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc kurtarmas\u0131na&#8217; yar\u0131yor bu t\u00fcr ilke kararlar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamalar. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki zirvede al\u0131nan ilke karar\u0131ndan sonra, hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, ECB devreye girmi\u015f ve fon bulma s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7eken Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankalar\u0131na \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli ve \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kredi a\u00e7maya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bankalara sa\u011flanan bu imk\u00e2n\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bekleyi\u015fler var.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece olumlu ge\u00e7irmemize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan ikinci geli\u015fme ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (FED) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 oldu. FED faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 daha anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r k\u0131lmak ve bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede politika faizinin ileride alaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferler hakk\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi en alt d\u00fczeye indirmek politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, y\u00fczde 0-0.25 aras\u0131nda olan politika faizini 2014&#8217;e kadar de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2012 i\u00e7inde FED&#8217;den bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 zaten beklenmiyordu. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama 2013&#8217;\u00fc de &#8216;kurtard\u0131&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>Bu geli\u015fmeler uluslararas\u0131 risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalmay\u0131 durdurdu. Hatta bir miktar art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 da belirtilebilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren ve k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynak (bor\u00e7) bulmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olan bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in elbette her iki geli\u015fme de olumlu y\u00f6nde etki yapt\u0131. Yar\u0131s\u0131 euro, yar\u0131s\u0131 dolardan olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz sepeti kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda lira 2011&#8217;in son aylar\u0131nda h\u0131zla de\u011fer yitirmi\u015fti. Sepetin lira kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri bir ara 2.20&#8217;yi biraz a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son geli\u015fmelerle kur 2.10&#8217;un alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Ne yaz\u0131k ki, olumlu geli\u015fmeler bu kadar. S\u0131ra di\u011fer \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerde. IMF 2012 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncelledi. Yeni \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcye g\u00f6re t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 2012&#8217;de y\u00fczde 3.3 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Bu de\u011fer, IMF&#8217;nin Eyl\u00fcl 2011&#8217;de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcye k\u0131yasla 0.7 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan daha \u00f6nemlisi, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z AB&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131. AB i\u00e7in 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini eksi y\u00fczde 0.1. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, 2011 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan tahmine g\u00f6re 1.5 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan yeni tahmine g\u00f6re AB k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek.<\/p>\n<p>Yunanistan tekrar g\u00fcndemde \u00f6n s\u0131ralara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Geli\u015fmeler iyi de\u011fil; \u00fcstelik olumlu geli\u015fmeler listemin ba\u015fk\u00f6\u015fesine oturttu\u011fum AB liderler zirvesi, bu sevimsiz durumu peki\u015ftirdi. Almanya i\u015fi, Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7esinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmay\u0131 istemesi halinde AB&#8217;ce atanacak bir komiserden izin almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine kadar getirdi. Bu, bir \u00fclkenin i\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi en ac\u0131kl\u0131 durumlardan biri herhalde. Tabii Yunanistan&#8217;da tepkiler do\u011furdu. Finansal piyasalar bu geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tedirginlik duyuyorlar. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n devlet bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n zaten \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6denmeyece\u011fi belli oldu. Yeni belirsizlik kayna\u011f\u0131, her bir euroluk borcun \u00f6denmesi beklenen k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n (50 centten az) art\u0131k \u00f6denip \u00f6denmeyece\u011fi. \u00d6denirse, nas\u0131l \u00f6denece\u011fi. Ama as\u0131l belirsizlik kayna\u011f\u0131 Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen eurodan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile olacak bitecekler. Bu geli\u015fmeler Portekiz&#8217;e ili\u015fkin risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fckseltti. Portekiz&#8217;in ad\u0131 yine \u00e7ok telaffuz edilecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>2012&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 1-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m daha \u00f6nce. Elbette bu &#8216;ko\u015fullu&#8217; bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyd\u00fc. Ko\u015fullar \u015f\u00f6yleydi: \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fc, AB&#8217;deki ve ABD&#8217;deki mevcut durumun s\u00fcrmesi halinde ge\u00e7erliydi. ABD&#8217;deki durumda bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme beklenmiyordu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, AB k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclebilirdi. Tersine, AB&#8217;deki iyile\u015fme, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilirdi. Ocak ay\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in ortada bir neden yok. Olsa olsa T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, 2011&#8217;in son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131ndaki ihtimale k\u0131yasla, azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011&#8217;in son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131na g\u00f6re 2012&#8217;nin ilk ay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu ge\u00e7ti. K\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar biraz olsun rahatlad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye de yans\u0131d\u0131 bu olumlu durum. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}