{"id":11086,"date":"2012-02-01T09:30:08","date_gmt":"2012-02-01T07:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11086"},"modified":"2012-02-01T09:30:21","modified_gmt":"2012-02-01T07:30:21","slug":"sinyal-ve-piyasa-algilamasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sinyal-ve-piyasa-algilamasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinyal ve Piyasa Alg\u0131lamas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta hem g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famda hem de ekonomide ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerle ba\u015flad\u0131. Ekonomide a\u011f\u0131r karamsarl\u0131k sanki biraz da\u011f\u0131l\u0131r gibi oldu. Kar f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 da g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam planlar\u0131n\u0131 alt \u00fcst etti. Ola\u011fan ko\u015fullarda hakiki bir kampusta ya\u015faman\u0131n keyfini s\u00fcren Okan \u00dcniversitesi yo\u011fun kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6\u011fretime ara vermek zorunda kal\u0131nca benim de planlar\u0131m alt \u00fcst oldu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-864970084\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00fczenimi yeniden ve yeni bir \u00fcniversiteye ta\u015f\u0131mam\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnden \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden tekrar ev ofisine d\u00f6nmek baz\u0131 pratik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckler yaratt\u0131. Gerekli malzemeden uzak kalmak g\u00fcnl\u00fck yaz\u0131 planlar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015ftirmemi gerektirdi. Ben de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ak\u0131\u015ftan kopup, son g\u00fcnlerde dikkatimi \u00e7eken ilgin\u00e7 bir ekonomi \u00e7eli\u015fkisini yazmaya karar verdim.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda s\u00f6zkonusu \u00e7eli\u015fkiyi bakar bakmaz g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc s\u00f6ylersem yalan olur. H\u0131zla\u00a0 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdi\u011fim (ve \u015fimdi de hangisi oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m) g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0 yay\u0131nlardan birisinde, ama ba\u015fka bir ba\u011flamda, b\u00f6yle bir \u00e7eli\u015fkiyi ima eden bir \u015feyler okudum. Sonra, kendi zihnimde evirip \u00e7evirdi\u011fimde, piyasa ekonomilerinde \u00e7ok s\u0131k rastlanan\u00a0 uyumsuzluk sorununun somut bir \u00f6rne\u011fine tan\u0131k oldu\u011fumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131m. Sizinle bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceyi payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. Umar\u0131m yan\u0131lm\u0131yorumdur.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda mesele ekonomi \u00f6\u011fretisinin yabanc\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir konu de\u011fil.\u00a0 Ekonomiyi y\u00f6netenlerin yeni bir politika ad\u0131m\u0131yla\u00a0 ya da politikaya ili\u015fkin bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yoluyla\u00a0 ekonomiye vermek istedi\u011fi sinyal ile piyasalar\u0131n (akt\u00f6rlerin)\u00a0 bu sinyali alg\u0131lama bi\u00e7imi aras\u0131nda \u00e7eli\u015fki olmas\u0131 halidir bu.<\/p>\n<p>Bazen piyasalar\u0131n (akt\u00f6rlerin) k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli kazan\u00e7 hesab\u0131 ile iktisat politikas\u0131 sinyalinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131 \u00e7eli\u015fir. Piyasalar, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde elde edilecek kazan\u00e7 u\u011fruna,\u00a0 sinyalle verilmek istenen mesaj\u0131 anlay\u0131p, i\u00e7selle\u015ftirmek istemez. Sinyal havada kal\u0131r. Kazan\u00e7 g\u00fcd\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bi\u00e7imlendirdi\u011fi piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 belirleyici olur. Ekonomi bir s\u00fcre buna g\u00f6re hareket eder.<\/p>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde bu t\u00fcr bir \u00e7eli\u015fkinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. FED&#8217;in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klama ile piyasalar\u0131n buna verdi\u011fi tepki aras\u0131ndaki \u00f6rt\u00fck uyumsuzlu\u011fu kastediyorum.\u00a0 Kabaca \u00f6zetlersek,\u00a0 FED bir s\u00fcredir devam ettirdi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) faiz ve bol likidite uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 2014 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini, gerekirse bunun da \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yine kabaca \u00f6zetlersek, piyasalar bu a\u00e7\u0131klamaya neredeyse abart\u0131l\u0131 denilebilecek bir co\u015fku ile tepki verdi.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2242364783\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta bu iki geli\u015fme aras\u0131nda bir \u00e7eli\u015fki olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Tersine, FED&#8217;in s\u00f6zel \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n son s\u0131ralarda egemen olan karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n bu nedenle olumlu tepki verdi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. G\u00fcncele tak\u0131l\u0131 bir yorumlamayla\u00a0 piyasalar\u0131n tepkisi do\u011fru bir tepki olarak nitelenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan,\u00a0 politika sinyalinin esas mesaj\u0131n\u0131n bu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bana kal\u0131rsa FED&#8217;in a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 karanl\u0131k g\u00fcnler geride kald\u0131, i\u015fler d\u00fczelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131, \u015fimdi kazan\u00e7 zaman\u0131d\u0131r \u015feklinde g\u00fcnceli olumlay\u0131p, piyasalar\u0131 co\u015fturan bir bildiri niyeti ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Hatta FED a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bunun tam tersi bir mesaj ta\u015f\u0131yor da denilebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Kabaca FED \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor olabilir; a) ekonomi krizden istenen h\u0131zda \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme hala yava\u015f ve fazlas\u0131yla karars\u0131z b) yava\u015f ve karas\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 2014 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecek c) bu nedenle ekonominin parasal uyar\u0131c\u0131ya (gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na)\u00a0 ihtiyac\u0131 devam ediyor, d) para otoritesi olarak ben de gerekli olan uyar\u0131c\u0131y\u0131 (stimulus) vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetlemenin kaba sabal\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kusuruma bakmay\u0131n. Ama sonu\u00e7ta s\u00f6ylenen bu. Dikkat ederseniz FED i\u015flerin hala pek iyi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, daha iki sene de durumun b\u00f6yle devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Temel riske ve riskin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na vurgu yapan bir mesaj olarak okunabilir bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2977664126\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki piyasalar (akt\u00f6rler) FED sinyalini\u00a0 b\u00f6yle mi alg\u0131l\u0131yor? Hay\u0131r. Son g\u00fcnlerde piyasalarda ya\u015fananlar alg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Sanki\u00a0 FED tam tersini s\u00f6ylemi\u015f gibi riskten ka\u00e7ma geriliyor, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131yor, b\u00fcy\u00fck riskler daha kolay al\u0131n\u0131yor, buna g\u00f6re yeni pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuluyor, varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131p\u0131rd\u0131yor, ortal\u0131k c\u00fcmb\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kar k\u0131yamette evde kapal\u0131 kald\u0131ysan\u0131z, al\u0131n size bir dizi e\u011flendirici soru. Sizce FED&#8217;in sinyalini ben do\u011fru anl\u0131yormuyum? Yoksa piyasalar\u0131n alg\u0131s\u0131 m\u0131 do\u011fru?\u00a0 Sizce bu c\u00fcmb\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir mi? S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemezse ne olur?\u00a0 Ekonomi bu co\u015fkuya g\u00f6re y\u00f6nlenebilir mi? Y\u00f6nlenmezse ne olur?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta hem g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famda hem de ekonomide ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerle ba\u015flad\u0131. Ekonomide a\u011f\u0131r karamsarl\u0131k sanki biraz da\u011f\u0131l\u0131r gibi oldu. Kar f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 da g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam planlar\u0131n\u0131 alt&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11086\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}