{"id":10950,"date":"2012-01-27T10:28:46","date_gmt":"2012-01-27T08:28:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10950"},"modified":"2012-01-27T10:28:57","modified_gmt":"2012-01-27T08:28:57","slug":"yumusak-inis-ya-da-sert-inis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yumusak-inis-ya-da-sert-inis\/","title":{"rendered":"Yumu\u015fak \u0130ni\u015f ya da Sert \u0130ni\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son olarak IMF revize edilmi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131nca ortal\u0131k kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. IMF\u2019nin revize tahminine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye 2012\u2019de y\u00fczde 0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekmi\u015f.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2968918193\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<div>IMF\u2019nin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin 2,2 idi. Bu tahminini Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda revize ederek y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye indirmi\u015fti. \u015eimdi Ocak ay\u0131nda bir kez daha revize ederek y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f bulunuyor. IMF\u2019nin bu revizyondaki temel varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015funlar: (1) Petrol fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 30 oran\u0131nda artacak ve bu art\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini engelleyecek. (2) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ithalat\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme olacak, bu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat gelirlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesine engel olu\u015fturacak. (3) Avrupa\u2019daki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonucu T\u00fcrkiye, b\u00fcy\u00fck cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmekte ba\u015fvurabilece\u011fi kaynaklara ula\u015fmakta ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak.<\/div>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 konusunda IMF d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki di\u011fer\u00a0tahminleri de s\u0131ralayal\u0131m. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin tahmini (Orta Vadeli Programda) y\u00fczde 4,\u00a0OECD\u2019nin tahmini y\u00fczde 3,\u00a0D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 tahmini y\u00fczde 2,9.\u00a0Buna g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri y\u00fczde 0,4 ile y\u00fczde 4 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin ile en y\u00fcksek tahmin aras\u0131nda 10 kat fark var.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ekonominin kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ideal d\u00fczeyde\u00a0kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0bir dengede ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na o ekonominin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ad\u0131 verilir. Genellikle bir \u00fclke potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcreklili\u011fi yakalarsa sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomik denge i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilece\u011fi kabul edilir.\u00a0Bu tan\u0131mdan giderek bir hesaplama yapmak \u00e7ok kolay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131 bir \u00e7e\u015fit potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olarak kabul edilir. Bu oran T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak y\u00fczde 5 dolay\u0131nda bir orand\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye bu oran dolay\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme serisi yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ekonomik dengesini bozmadan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 8 dolay\u0131nda olmas\u0131 beklenmektedir (ilk 9 ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 9,6 d\u0131r.) Demek ki T\u00fcrkiye son iki y\u0131lda potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Nedir bunun sak\u0131ncas\u0131? Bu zorlanm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019lara gelip dayanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek imk\u00e2n d\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131, hele b\u00f6yle bir kriz ortam\u0131nda giderek imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale gelmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ekonominin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndan tekrar potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 dolay\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne yumu\u015fak ini\u015f deniyor. E\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda bir d\u00fczeye giderse buna da sert ini\u015f ad\u0131 veriliyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye e\u011fer \u00f6nceki iki y\u0131lda ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f olan y\u00fczde 8 \u2013 9 d\u00fczeyindeki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fczeylerine ini\u015f yaparsa yumu\u015fak ini\u015fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f olacakt\u0131r. E\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda bir d\u00fczeye do\u011fru giderse o zaman sert ini\u015f ge\u00e7erli olacak demektir. Yumu\u015fak ini\u015fi u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n normal ini\u015fine, sert ini\u015fi ise tekerleklerinin a\u00e7\u0131lmamas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00f6vdesi \u00fczerine ini\u015fine benzetebiliriz. Yani sert ini\u015f ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fck hasarlara yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n<p>IMF\u2019nin y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini olduk\u00e7a sert bir ini\u015fi tan\u0131mlamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son olarak IMF revize edilmi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131nca ortal\u0131k kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. IMF\u2019nin revize tahminine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye 2012\u2019de y\u00fczde 0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekmi\u015f. IMF\u2019nin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 2012 y\u0131l\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10950\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}