{"id":10944,"date":"2012-01-27T10:25:07","date_gmt":"2012-01-27T08:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10944"},"modified":"2012-01-27T10:25:19","modified_gmt":"2012-01-27T08:25:19","slug":"hangi-gruptayiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hangi-gruptayiz\/","title":{"rendered":"Hangi Gruptay\u0131z?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>IMF ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonbahar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminleri revize etti. Son y\u0131llarda i\u015fler iyice k\u0131z\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0 IMF\u00a0 bu t\u00fcr ara revizyonu hep yapar hale geldi. Mart ve Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;deki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnya ekonomisi raporlar\u0131na ilaveten y\u0131l\u00a0 ba\u015f\u0131nda bir de ara rapor a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Bence haks\u0131z da de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131nda hen\u00fcz durulup, oturmam\u0131\u015f olan d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcp, ne olup bitece\u011fini tek at\u0131\u015fta vermek pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1717180665\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kimden gelirse gelsin, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminlerinin ortak bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi var. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in hemen herkes d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ve ulusal ekonomilerin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu tahmin karamsar bir beklentiyi ifade ediyor ku\u015fkusuz. Bu anlamda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on iki ay i\u00e7in herkesin karamsar oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Beklenti ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler genel \u00e7er\u00e7evede bu kadar tek t\u00fcr olunca &#8220;yava\u015flama&#8221; olacak diye ahkam\u00a0\u00a0 kesmenin bir manas\u0131 olmuyor. Detay daha \u00f6nemli hale geliyor. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 senaryolar\u0131nda iki detay \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bunlardan\u00a0 birisi\u00a0 yava\u015flaman\u0131n dozu. \u00d6teki de uluslararas\u0131 planda yava\u015flaman\u0131n nas\u0131l bir desende da\u011f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 meselesi.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Dozu kestirme konusunda tav\u0131r ve s\u00f6ylemler de\u011fi\u015fik. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n akl\u0131nda\u00a0 neredeyse\u00a0 yeniden\u00a0 resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayanacak, yani dozu y\u00fcksek bir yava\u015flama var.\u00a0 Kimileri de dozu daha yumu\u015fak tutuyor, g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Durum a\u00e7\u0131k. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemek niyetinde olanlar yava\u015flama olacak dedikten sonra bunun dozunun ne olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini s\u00f6ylemek durumunda.\u00a0 Benim dozu g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm biliniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00fclkeler ve b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m deseni sergileyece\u011fi konusunda da \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler aras\u0131nda ana hatlar\u0131yla genel bir mutabakat oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Genel olarak geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek dozlu olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerdeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu iki grubun\u00a0 da kendi i\u00e7inde\u00a0 ayr\u0131\u015fmalar var. \u00d6rne\u011fin, genelden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozda yava\u015flayan geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler var.\u00a0 ABD\u00a0 b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6rnek. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozda yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda bu dozun dahi alt\u0131nda yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenler var. Asya grubu da bunun \u00f6rne\u011fi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3819732014\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Murad\u0131m\u0131 dillendirmek i\u00e7in bu kadar\u0131 yeter. Asl\u0131nda benim murad\u0131m T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin konumunu irdelemek.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok. Ekonomi yava\u015flayacak. Doz meselesi daha\u00a0 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Yava\u015flama y\u00fcksek dozlu olacak diyen de var d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dozlu olacak diyen de. Bu yaz\u0131da benim merak\u0131m bu de\u011fil. Yava\u015flama dozunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorsak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler grubu i\u00e7ine yerle\u015ftirmemiz gerekir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli, belki de \u00f6nc\u00fc, bir rol oynayacak \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmek daha ikna edici olur.<\/p>\n<p>Yok\u00a0 e\u011fer T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok sert bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131ndaysak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi yava\u015flama dozu y\u00fcksek olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemiz daha do\u011fru olur. Genel olarak bu grubun geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerden olu\u015ftu\u011funu biliyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00e7ok sert bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fayacak diyorsak \u00fclkeyi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler grubuna yak\u0131n bir yerde konumland\u0131rmam\u0131z gerekir. Bana kal\u0131rsa bu durumda yap\u0131lacak en\u00a0 do\u011fru\u00a0 i\u015f T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi \u00fcye olmaya \u00e7abalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa Birli\u011fi aras\u0131na yerle\u015ftirmek olur. Bu durumda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli hatta \u00f6nc\u00fc rol oynayacak \u00fclkeler ars\u0131nda yer alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1284309749\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi baz\u0131 sorular sorup, yan\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 arayal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin son iki y\u0131ldaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n AB ile uzaktan-yak\u0131ndan bir ilgisi, g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc olarak dahi bir benzerli\u011fi var m\u0131? Bana kal\u0131rsa yok. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tempolar\u0131 benze\u015fmedi\u011fine g\u00f6re, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunun AB \u00fclkelerine yak\u0131nsama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var m\u0131? Bence yok. E\u011fer b\u00f6yle bir yava\u015flama ve yak\u0131nsama olacaksa bunun i\u00e7in ikna edici bir neden \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Bence de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Sorular\u0131 sordum, kendi yan\u0131tlar\u0131m\u0131 verdim. Sizin de ku\u015fkusuz kendi yan\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131z vard\u0131r. \u015eimdi e\u011fri oturup, do\u011fru konu\u015fal\u0131m. Herkes kendi yan\u0131tlar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fu soruyu da cevaplas\u0131n. Bu ko\u015fullarda 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler grubuna yak\u0131n bir yere ya da\u00a0 AB\u00a0 i\u00e7inde bir konuma yerle\u015ftirilmesi ho\u015funuza gider mi? Benim\u00a0 gitmez. Haydi\u00a0 siz de karar verin;\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye hangi grupta?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IMF ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonbahar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminleri revize etti. Son y\u0131llarda i\u015fler iyice k\u0131z\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0 IMF\u00a0 bu t\u00fcr ara revizyonu hep yapar hale geldi. Mart ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10944\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}