{"id":10883,"date":"2012-01-26T09:56:02","date_gmt":"2012-01-26T07:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10883"},"modified":"2012-01-26T09:56:14","modified_gmt":"2012-01-26T07:56:14","slug":"imften-karamsar-tahminler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imften-karamsar-tahminler\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF\u2019ten Karamsar Tahminler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu PPK y\u0131l\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Para politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmiyordu. Faizlerle oynamad\u0131. Sadece ayr\u0131nt\u0131larda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ayarlarla yetindi. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalesi yerine g\u00fcn i\u00e7i d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 geldi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-649258130\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Faiz lobisi k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00fcnler ge\u00e7iriyor. Felaket senaryolar\u0131 fena halde \u015fi\u015fti. Sepet kur 2.10 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na yerle\u015fti. G\u00f6sterge faiz tek haneye geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Velhas\u0131l bilek g\u00fcre\u015fi Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kesin zaferi ile bitti. Lobinin k\u0131v\u0131rtacak yeri kalmad\u0131. Hayat zor&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgin\u00e7 bir haber Japonya\u2019dan geldi. G\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fczden ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f olabilir. Otuz k\u00fcsur y\u0131ldan sonra Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticareti ilk kez a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Geri planda dura\u011fan ihracata ra\u011fmen ithalat\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel reel d\u00fczeltme i\u00e7in bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7t\u0131r. Dar\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00fcnya ekonomisi yava\u015fl\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kriz sonras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr tahminlerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 revizyon \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. \u0130htiyac\u0131 IMF de hissetti. Kriz \u00f6ncesinde D\u00fcnya Ekonomisine Bak\u0131\u015f raporu y\u0131lda iki kez (Mart ve Eyl\u00fcl) yay\u0131nlan\u0131rd\u0131. \u015eimdi d\u00f6nem ortas\u0131nda k\u0131sa bir ek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak g\u00fcncellemesi yeni a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. K\u0131sa (7 sayfa) metnin bir sayfas\u0131 tahmin tablosu; ayr\u0131ca \u00f6nemli grafikler de var. Kolay okunuyor. Ek yay\u0131nda tek tek ekonomilere bak\u0131lm\u0131yor. Sadece on iki b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi yer al\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye listeye d\u00e2hil de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. IMF\u2019e g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2010\u2019dan 2011\u2019e ciddi yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu durum b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00f6lgelerde ge\u00e7erli. Ama h\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Geli\u015fen ekonomiler daha az, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde daha belirgin yava\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>IMF yava\u015flaman\u0131n 2012\u2019de devam edece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. 2011\u2019le baz\u0131 farklar var. Birincisi, 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla yava\u015flama daha yumu\u015fak. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2011\u2019de 1.4 puan, 2012\u2019de ise 0.5 puan geriliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2408868089\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mda da istisnalar beliriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2012\u2019de ABD ekonomisi yava\u015flam\u0131yor; 2011 d\u00fczeyinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyor. G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019da (ASEAN) ve Brezilya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme az da olsa h\u0131zlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro b\u00f6lgesinde resesyon<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Gelelim euro b\u00f6lgesini ilgin\u00e7 k\u0131lan geli\u015fmelere. Birincisi, hem 2011\u2019de hem 2012\u2019de d\u00fcnya konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcnden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. 2011\u2019de di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re az yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2012\u2019de resesyona giren yani k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen (y\u00fczde 0,5) tek b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011feri, b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lge i\u00e7inde e\u015fitsiz da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor. 2012\u2019de euro b\u00f6lgesinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki ekonomisinde resesyon yok; Almanya ve Fransa\u2019da art\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme var (y\u00fczde 0.3 ve 0.2). Ama \u0130talya\u2019da y\u00fczde 2.2; \u0130spanya\u2019da y\u00fczde 1.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme bekleniyor. Milli gelir bilgileri: \u0130spanya 1.5 trilyon dolar, \u0130talya 2 trilyon dolar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-399793160\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son olarak k\u0131saca bir \u00f6nceki tahminden bu yana de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret edelim. Eyl\u00fcle k\u0131yasla ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00fcn ekonomilerde 2012\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revizyon g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Sadece ABD sabit kal\u0131yor. Yani son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda IMF\u2019nin d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu PPK y\u0131l\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Para politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmiyordu. Faizlerle oynamad\u0131. Sadece ayr\u0131nt\u0131larda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ayarlarla yetindi. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalesi yerine g\u00fcn&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}