{"id":10834,"date":"2012-01-25T09:34:29","date_gmt":"2012-01-25T07:34:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10834"},"modified":"2012-01-25T09:34:46","modified_gmt":"2012-01-25T07:34:46","slug":"2012de-cari-acik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012de-cari-acik\/","title":{"rendered":"2012&#8217;de Cari A\u00e7\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan tart\u0131\u015fmalarda ba\u015fk\u00f6\u015fede yer alan konulardan biri de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Hem cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselme hem de finansman\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli olmas\u0131 bir risk unsuru olarak alg\u0131land\u0131. Bu nedenle de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131labilecekler g\u00fcndemi me\u015fgul etti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1806073820\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6demeler dengesine ait en g\u00fcncel veri Kas\u0131m 2011 i\u00e7in elimizde var. Grafikte aylar itibariyle son on iki ayl\u0131k cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Ocak 2001&#8217;den bu yana geli\u015fimi g\u00f6steriliyor. 2001 krizinde cari i\u015flemler fazlam\u0131z var. K\u00fcresel krizin derinle\u015fti\u011fi 2009&#8217;da ise cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azal\u0131yor. Sonra h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ise 2009&#8217;un sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana ilk defa on iki ayl\u0131k toplam cari a\u00e7\u0131kta azalma oldu. Grafi\u011fin en sonunda bu ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bir g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Uzun bir s\u00fcredir ilk defa son on iki ayl\u0131k cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen azalma bundan sonra da s\u00fcrer mi?\u00a0 Ebet, bu geli\u015fmenin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. \u0130ki nedenle:<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk ve en \u00f6nemli neden 2012&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2011&#8217;e k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek olmas\u0131. 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 muhtemelen y\u00fczde 8-8.5 aras\u0131nda olacak. Oysa 2012 i\u00e7in resmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4. OECD ve IMF&#8217;nin tahminleri y\u00fczde 2-3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Daha \u00f6nce sizlerle payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminim ise y\u00fczde 1-3 aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla eskisine k\u0131yasla daha az ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n da eskiye k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenir. Her iki yolla da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczelir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci neden, liran\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer yitirmi\u015f olmas\u0131. D\u00f6viz kurundaki bu art\u0131\u015f, bizler i\u00e7in ithal mallar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131, bizim ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fimiz mallar\u0131 ise yabanc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha ucuz hale getiriyor. Bu yolla da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n olumlu y\u00f6nde etkilenmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak unsurlar da var. \u0130ki tane ve her ikisi de Avrupa ile ilgili. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa&#8217;ya y\u00f6nelik. Avrupa ekonomilerinin 2012&#8217;de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeleri bekleniyor. Eskiye k\u0131yasla bizden daha az mal sat\u0131n alabilirler. \u0130kincisi, euro dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybediyor. Bu durumda liradaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 daha fazla euroya kar\u015f\u0131 daha az oluyor. Demin d\u00f6viz kurundaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 olumlu y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftim. Ama lira euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda o denli de\u011fer kaybetmez ya da de\u011ferlenirse, bu avantaj ortadan kalkabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n arzu edildi\u011fi kadar azalmamas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ama daha az bir olas\u0131l\u0131k. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminlerdeki kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmazsa cari a\u00e7\u0131kta tatmin edici bir azalma olmaz. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n hangi d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye ne d\u00fczeyde kaynak giri\u015fi olaca\u011f\u0131 ile ilgili. T\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin arkas\u0131nda kaynak giri\u015finin belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi var. Kaynak giri\u015fini art\u0131racak her geli\u015fme T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2011&#8217;de daha y\u00fcksek bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini sa\u011flayacak ve az \u00f6nce verdi\u011fim tahminleri yapanlar yan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacaklar.<\/p>\n<p>Kaynak giri\u015finin korkuldu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalmamas\u0131 \u015fu unsurlara ba\u011fl\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 yeni bir parasal gev\u015femeye gidebilir. B\u00f6ylelikle piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kan paran\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 daha fazla getiri elde etmek i\u00e7in bizim gibi \u00fclkelere gelir. Bu olmasa bile Avrupa&#8217;daki bankalar\u0131n sermaye yeterlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131, d\u00fczenleme ve denetim otoritelerince belirtilen d\u00fczeye getirmek i\u00e7in, bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmek d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir yol bulmalar\u0131 halinde, T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkelere d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi korkuldu\u011fu kadar azalmayabilir. \u015e\u00fcphesiz her ikisi de ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z resmi tahminin de \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-961509081\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Buraya kadar enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinden hi\u00e7 s\u00f6z etmedim. A\u00e7\u0131k ki ham petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ithal fiyatlar\u0131nda uluslar aras\u0131 piyasalarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek art\u0131\u015flar, yukar\u0131daki ko\u015fullardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyecekler. \u00d6zellikle ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerine dikkat etmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/pics\/fozatay_t1.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"baseline\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafik 1. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131: 2001 Ocak \u2013 2011 Kas\u0131m (milyon dolar, son on iki ayl\u0131k toplam). Kaynak: TCMB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan tart\u0131\u015fmalarda ba\u015fk\u00f6\u015fede yer alan konulardan biri de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Hem cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselme hem de finansman\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}