{"id":10828,"date":"2012-01-25T09:32:30","date_gmt":"2012-01-25T07:32:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10828"},"modified":"2012-01-25T09:32:42","modified_gmt":"2012-01-25T07:32:42","slug":"dolara-ne-oldu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolara-ne-oldu\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolara Ne Oldu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar yine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0 T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 yine de\u011ferlendi.\u00a0 Kur yine geriledi. Yine diyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu hareketler\u00a0 hep oluyor.\u00a0 Koptu gidiyor derken her \u015fey yeniden tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.\u00a0\u00a0 Bu\u00a0 defa\u00a0 da olan\u00a0 bu.\u00a0 Bir kez daha ne olacak bu kurun hali deme noktas\u0131na geldik. Durum b\u00f6yle gider,\u00a0 kur ba\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nerse\u00a0 \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden ne olacak bu liran\u0131n hali deme noktalar\u0131na geliriz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-243685088\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son\u00a0 g\u00fcnlerde\u00a0 d\u00f6viz\u00a0 kurunu\u00a0 hareketlendirip, tersine \u00e7eviren bir dizi geli\u015fme var.\u00a0 Bu t\u00fcr be\u015f geli\u015fme say\u0131labilir.\u00a0 Bunlar\u0131n\u00a0 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc\u00a0 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da\u00a0 olan\u00a0 bitenle\u00a0 ilgili. \u0130ki de i\u00e7eride geli\u015fen olay var.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015far\u0131da geli\u015fen olaylar\u0131n dolar- TL kuruna etkisi dolayl\u0131 yoldan oluyor. Olaylar \u00f6nce dolar- Euro paritesini\u00a0\u00a0 etkiliyor, dolar- TL kuru buna g\u00f6re kendisini d\u00fczeltiyor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde de bu y\u00f6nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket\u00a0 oldu.\u00a0 Baz\u0131\u00a0 geli\u015fmeler\u00a0 y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan\u00a0 beri\u00a0 diki\u015f tutmayan\u00a0 Euro&#8217;ya destek verdi.\u00a0 Euro g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131p, dipten d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0 Parite y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0\u00a0 Dolar de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcrece destek\u00a0 veren\u00a0 \u00fc\u00e7 geli\u015fme var. Bir tanesi\u00a0 Avrupa&#8217;da havan\u0131n g\u00f6rece d\u00fczeliyor olmas\u0131.\u00a0 \u0130kinci geli\u015fme Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 (FED)\u00a0 paray\u0131\u00a0 gev\u015fek\u00a0 tutmaya, yani ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131 dolara bo\u011fmaya devam\u00a0 edece\u011finin anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131.\u00a0 \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc\u00a0 geli\u015fme\u00a0 ise ilk iki\u00a0 geli\u015fmenin\u00a0 etkisiyle\u00a0 uluslararas\u0131\u00a0 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmi\u015f\u00a0\u00a0 olmas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride dolar talebini dizginleyip, dolar arz\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131ran iki geli\u015fme oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.\u00a0\u00a0 Birisi T\u00fcrk tahvillerine\u00a0 kar\u015f\u0131\u00a0 ilginin ve talebin\u00a0 artmas\u0131. Bunu en somut olarak Hazine&#8217;nin son ihalelerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fck.\u00a0 Bu geli\u015fmenin hem risk alg\u0131s\u0131 hem de faiz ile ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 var. Liraya ilginin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te ve ihalelerde\u00a0 faizin y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 faiz ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n etkili bi\u00e7imde devrede oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fmenin de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde i\u00e7erideki\u00a0 ikinci\u00a0 geli\u015fme ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin karamsar 2012 senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n tepe yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0\u00a0 Bu\u00a0 duruma\u00a0 herkes benim g\u00f6z\u00fcmle\u00a0 bakmayabilir.\u00a0 Kendi ad\u0131ma aylard\u0131r t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131lan karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonu\u00e7ta ekonominin verileri\u00a0 ile uyumsuz hale geldi\u011fini ve bunun da g\u00f6rece\u00a0 iyimser beklentilere yol verdi\u011fini\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bu\u00a0 geli\u015fmelerin\u00a0 i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da dolar talebini dizginlerken Euro ve TL talebini besledi\u011fi\u00a0 ve sonu\u00e7ta Euro ve TL&#8217;yi de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi\u00a0 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2707060324\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te baz\u0131 ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmeler de oldu.\u00a0\u00a0 AB \u00fcyesi dokuz \u00fclkenin kredi de\u011ferlendirme notunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u00a0\u00a0 bir\u00a0 ortamda\u00a0 Euro&#8217;nun de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bunlardan birisi.\u00a0 Not k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Euro&#8217;nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tam anlam\u0131yla tu\u015f olmas\u0131 beklenirken geli\u015fmenin ters y\u00f6nde olmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten ilgin\u00e7 ve izaha muhta\u00e7 bir durum.<\/p>\n<p>Burada iki a\u00e7\u0131klama olabilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0 Kriz s\u00fcrecinde kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fazlas\u0131yla\u00a0 itibar kaybetti\u011fi\u00a0\u00a0 biliniyor. \u0130tibar kayb\u0131 nedeniyle, daha \u00f6nce ABD ba\u011flam\u0131ndaki notlamada da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi,\u00a0 not indirimleri falan art\u0131k pek ciddiye\u00a0 al\u0131nm\u0131yor, risk hesaplar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131yor. . Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla,\u00a0 dramatik bir \u00e7eli\u015fki gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, not indirimi ile paran\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131\u00a0 \u00fcst \u00fcste binebiliyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamalardan birisi bu olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Not indirimi ciddiye al\u0131nsa bile, indirim ba\u011flam\u0131nda ve bunun sonras\u0131nda geli\u015fen olaylar bu eylemin etkilerini dengeleyecek kadar olumlu bir hava yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r \u015feklinde bir ikinci a\u00e7\u0131klama da yap\u0131labilir. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ge\u00e7e\u011fe daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Not indirimlerinin daha ilk ad\u0131mda piyasalar\u0131 \u00e7ok etkilemedi\u011fini\u00a0 hatta\u00a0 birka\u00e7\u00a0 g\u00fcn\u00a0 i\u00e7inde belli bir rahatlama da yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Bunun\u00a0 k\u0131smen indirimlerin bekleniyor olmas\u0131ndan k\u0131smen de indirimlerle birlikte Avrupa risk haritas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar daha temizlenmi\u015f olmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu durumda, beklenenin tersine, not indirimlerinin risk alg\u0131s\u0131na de\u011fi\u015ftirip, beklentilerin d\u00fczelmesine katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ama not indirimine ra\u011fmen\u00a0 Euro&#8217;yu k\u0131p\u0131rdatan esas olay\u0131n Avrupa&#8217;da risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ve beklenti\u00a0 evreninin olumluya d\u00f6nmesi oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.\u00a0 Bunda ilk ivmeyi veren geli\u015fme\u00a0\u00a0 ge\u00e7en\u00a0 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki zirvede al\u0131nan kararlar oldu.\u00a0 Avrupa\u00a0 Merkez\u00a0 Bankas\u0131ndaki\u00a0 g\u00f6rev de\u011fi\u015fiminin ard\u0131ndan gelen bol bulama\u00e7\u00a0 fonlama\u00a0 buna katk\u0131 yapt\u0131.\u00a0 Nihayet Yunan bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ile ilgili geli\u015fmeler (sa\u00e7 tra\u015f\u0131)\u00a0 bu ivmeyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-446111810\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dolara ne oldu da durup dururken y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirdi sorusunun yan\u0131t\u0131 bence b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar. Tasalanmay\u0131n, yar\u0131n ba\u015fka geli\u015fmeler olur, y\u00f6n yeniden de\u011fi\u015fir.\u00a0 Oyunun\u00a0 kural\u0131\u00a0 bu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar yine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0 T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 yine de\u011ferlendi.\u00a0 Kur yine geriledi. Yine diyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu hareketler\u00a0 hep oluyor.\u00a0 Koptu gidiyor derken her \u015fey yeniden tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.\u00a0\u00a0&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10828"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10828\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}