{"id":10804,"date":"2012-01-24T14:36:09","date_gmt":"2012-01-24T12:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10804"},"modified":"2012-01-24T14:36:20","modified_gmt":"2012-01-24T12:36:20","slug":"konut-fiyatlari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/konut-fiyatlari\/","title":{"rendered":"Konut Fiyatlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel krizin en belirgin yans\u0131malar\u0131ndan birini konut fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zledik. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fcnyada konut fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli gerilemeler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<br \/>\nSon d\u00f6nemlerde ise baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durdu\u011funu ve fiyatlar\u0131n yatay hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<br \/>\nIMF ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131 da bu konuya e\u011filmi\u015fler ve T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin de i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu 55 \u00fclkedeki verilere bakm\u0131\u015flar (*). \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck tahminler yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015flar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3742480199\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>MEVCUT DURUM<\/strong><br \/>\nKriz sona ermemesine ra\u011fmen, 2010 ile 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekleri aras\u0131nda reel bazda konut fiyatlar\u0131 bu \u00fclkelerin yar\u0131s\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f, di\u011fer yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. Tam &#8220;fifty-fifty&#8221; durumu.<br \/>\nGenelde Asya \u00fclkelerinde fiyatlar y\u00fckselirken sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi var. Hong Kong y\u00fczde 20&#8217;ye yakla\u015fan art\u0131\u015fla birincili\u011fi al\u0131rken, \u0130rlanda y\u00fczde 14 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle sonuncu durumda bulunuyor.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye bu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 6 oran\u0131ndaki reel art\u0131\u015fla konut fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda 12. s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor.<br \/>\nKan\u0131mca bizdeki bu art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde mevcut bir balona i\u015faret etmiyor. Banka kredileri deste\u011finde ki\u015filerin ev sahibi olmas\u0131 isteklerinden kaynaklanan ve spek\u00fclatif hareketlerin az oldu\u011fu talebin sonucu bu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GELECE\u011eE Y\u00d6NEL\u0130K TAHM\u0130NLER<\/strong><br \/>\nGelecek y\u0131llarda konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l bir e\u011filim g\u00f6sterece\u011fi, ku\u015fkusuz ge\u00e7mi\u015finden daha \u00f6nemli bir konu.<br \/>\nNe var ki bir\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fik fakt\u00f6r i\u015fin i\u00e7ine giriyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n modellerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<br \/>\nIMF&#8217;ye g\u00f6re iki g\u00f6sterge, konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini tahmin etmede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Birincisi konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire, ikincisi ise kiralara oranlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak ve bunlar\u0131 tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de bu konuda ge\u00e7mi\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fck veri seti yok. Konut fiyatlar\u0131yla ilgili verileri daha yeni yeni geli\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla IMF ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131 bizi i\u00e7ine almadan analiz yapm\u0131\u015flar.<br \/>\nBulgular\u0131na g\u00f6re baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bu oranlar tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. \u00d6rne\u011fin Hollanda, Bel\u00e7ika, Kanada ve Fransa&#8217;da durum b\u00f6yle. Anlam\u0131, bu \u00fclkelerde konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenebilir.<br \/>\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD, Japonya ve Almanya&#8217;da durum tam tersi. Buralarda konut fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklemek laz\u0131m.<br \/>\nBu analizin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekonometrik modeller kullan\u0131larak yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeler ise anlams\u0131z sonu\u00e7lar veriyor.<br \/>\nModellerin tahmini ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131 ele alal\u0131m. Model, konut fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 50 d\u00fc\u015fecek diye tahmin etmi\u015f. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme y\u00fczde 20&#8217;de kalm\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\n\u0130sve\u00e7&#8217;te y\u00fczde 1 0 artacak beklenirken, konut fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f.<br \/>\nNedeni, her \u00fclkenin kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc \u015fartlar\u0131 olmas\u0131.<br \/>\nBenim T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131ll\u0131k tahminim, konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki reel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 3 ila 5 aras\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde. Bir balonun olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. Konut fiyatlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki gibi y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00f6zlenece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.<br \/>\nBankalar\u0131n verdikleri konut kredilerinin faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler ve mevcut sat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f konut stoku beni yukar\u0131daki bu sonuca g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel krizin en belirgin yans\u0131malar\u0131ndan birini konut fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zledik. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fcnyada konut fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli gerilemeler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Son d\u00f6nemlerde ise baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}