{"id":10779,"date":"2012-01-24T09:15:30","date_gmt":"2012-01-24T07:15:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10779"},"modified":"2012-01-24T09:15:44","modified_gmt":"2012-01-24T07:15:44","slug":"2012-icin-farkli-tahminler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2012-icin-farkli-tahminler\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 \u0130\u00e7in Farkl\u0131 Tahminler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda bir yenilik yapt\u0131m. 2012 tahminlerimi Ekodiyalog ekibi ile birlikte yay\u0131nlad\u0131m. Zaten arada b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar yoktu. \u0130leride hesap sormak isteyeceklere tabloyu kesip saklamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3730534983\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemde ba\u015fka 2012 tahminleri gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 2012 i\u00e7in bize k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha karamsar bir resim \u00e7izdi. B\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tahminleri de benzer y\u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlara bak\u0131nca, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n 2012 beklentilerinde \u00f6nemli bir ayr\u0131\u015fma olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn nas\u0131l bitece\u011fi konusunda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler var.<\/p>\n<p>Biri \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d senaryosudur. Ekonominin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 kabul ediliyor. Ama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 4-5 civar\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc savunuyor. Ben de o cephede yer al\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k mali kesim k\u00f6kenli tahminler bu senaryoyu iyimser buluyor. \u015eu ya da bu nedenle, 2012\u2019de konjonkt\u00fcrde daha keskin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u201cSert ini\u015f\u201d diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Consensus Forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts EECF her ay yay\u0131nlan\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye d\u00e2hil Do\u011fu Avrupa ekonomilerini kaps\u0131yor. Ocak say\u0131s\u0131 yeni elime ge\u00e7ti. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 12 kurulu\u015f tahmin vermi\u015f (benim tahminim de i\u00e7inde).<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ile ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Bir yerli menkul de\u011ferler kurulu\u015fu 2012\u2019de ekonomi y\u00fczde 2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek diyor. Bir ba\u015fka (yerli) kurulu\u015f y\u00fczde 1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, iki b\u00fcy\u00fck yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r ve y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-515226527\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 1,3 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ortalamay\u0131 benim y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminim y\u00fckseltiyor; hari\u00e7 tutunca ortalama y\u00fczde 1,1\u2019e iniyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2011\u2019de y\u00fczde 8\u2019in \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, ger\u00e7ekten ekonomi kaz\u0131k fren yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmede karamsarl\u0131k di\u011fer g\u00f6stergelere de bula\u015f\u0131yor. Ekonominin durmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 56 milyar dolar, enflasyon y\u00fczde 6,2 tahmin ediliyor. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2,5\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz kuru soruluyor ama sonu\u00e7lar yay\u0131nlanm\u0131yor. Merak ediyorum. Acaba TL\u2019ye sald\u0131r\u0131 bekleniyor mu? B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir nedeni olabilir. Ama d\u0131\u015f denge o y\u00f6nde i\u015faret ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Beklenti Anketi<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2429807758\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Beklenti Anketi ayda iki kez yap\u0131l\u0131yor. 90 civar\u0131nda mali kesim a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131m var. Ocakta yap\u0131lan ikinci anketin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nland\u0131. S\u0131ca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131na 2012 beklentilerine bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019le EECF\u2019in \u00fczerinde ama Ekodiyalog\u2019un alt\u0131nda. Cevaplar aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme de oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00fczde 8,3 (?) bekleyen de var.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,2 ile ikisinden de y\u00fcksek. Cevaplar y\u00fczde 6-11 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Belli ki enflasyon konusunda i\u00e7eride karamsarl\u0131k daha yayg\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 67 milyar dolarla gene ikisinden y\u00fcksek. Cevaplar 43-80 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda oynuyor. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta da beklentiler daha karamsar.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru ortalamas\u0131 ise 1.83 TL. Ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 az \u00e7ok bu de\u011ferden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kurda yatay hareket \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cevaplar 1.70-2.20 TL aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda bir yenilik yapt\u0131m. 2012 tahminlerimi Ekodiyalog ekibi ile birlikte yay\u0131nlad\u0131m. Zaten arada b\u00fcy\u00fck farklar yoktu. \u0130leride hesap sormak isteyeceklere tabloyu kesip saklamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdim. Son&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}