{"id":10745,"date":"2012-01-23T15:15:16","date_gmt":"2012-01-23T13:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10745"},"modified":"2012-01-23T15:15:28","modified_gmt":"2012-01-23T13:15:28","slug":"turkiyenin-kredi-notu-ve-digerleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turkiyenin-kredi-notu-ve-digerleri\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin Kredi Notu ve Di\u011ferleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin kredi notu S&amp;P kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015funun skalas\u0131na g\u00f6re BB. Notumuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Makro ekonomik alanda \u00f6nemli iyile\u015fmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi halde, notumuz artm\u0131yor. Bu konuda daha iyi bir fikir elde edebilmek i\u00e7in kendimizi ba\u015fkalar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakta yarar var.<br \/>\nTabloda, T\u00fcrkiye ile beraber T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin rakibi olarak tan\u0131mlayabilece\u011fimiz Endonezya, Brezilya, Tayland, G\u00fcney Afrika ve G\u00fcney Kore&#8217;nin baz\u0131 makro ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri veriliyor. Bu \u00fclkelerin hepsi, Tayland hari\u00e7, G-20 \u00fcyesi. Endonezya milli gelir a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Brezilya bizim \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131m\u0131z kadar. Tayland ve G\u00fcney Afrika bizim yar\u0131m\u0131z kadar. G\u00fcney Kore T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1634760688\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>KIRILGANLIK AZALMALI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kredi notuna sahip \u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye. En h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nday\u0131z. Bizi di\u011ferlerinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran en \u00f6nemli \u00f6zellik cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc. Endonezya, Tayland ve G\u00fcney Kore cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131 veriyor. Gelecek y\u0131l k\u00fcresel talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle bu \u00fclkelerin cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Ama, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen kaynaklara endeksli de\u011fil, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 talebe endeksli. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bu y\u0131l sert bir bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi de ekonominin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kaynaklan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nB\u00fct\u00fcn bu \u00fclkelerde b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini var. G\u00fcney Afrika d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, herkesin kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 milli gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 3&#8217;\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131nda. Kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011funun milli gelire oran\u0131, Brezilya hari\u00e7, t\u00fcm bu \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131nda ya da daha da alt\u0131nda. En y\u00fcksek enflasyona sahip \u00fclkelerden biriyiz. Brezilya ile baz\u0131 benzerliklerimiz var. Onlar da son d\u00f6nemde faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaya, paralar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmamas\u0131na \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi azamiye \u00e7\u0131karma pe\u015findeler. Ama, Brezilya&#8217;n\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir sorunu yok. Finansman sorunu hi\u00e7 yok. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda Brezilya&#8217;da cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 60 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde olurken, yaln\u0131zca do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sabit sermaye giri\u015fleri 60 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<br \/>\nGe\u00e7enlerde bir ba\u015fka kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Endonezya&#8217;n\u0131n kredi notunu art\u0131rd\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla S&amp;P de Endonezya&#8217;n\u0131n kredi notunu yak\u0131nda BBB- d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131karacak. Neden? Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri g\u00f6reli olarak y\u00fcksek ve istikrarl\u0131. Enflasyon g\u00f6reli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 makul d\u00fczeyde ve \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu var. Cari i\u015flemler dengesi fazla veriyor. K\u00fcresel talebin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda dahi, cari i\u015flemeler dengesinde beklenen a\u00e7\u0131k \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu veriler Endonezya ekonomisinin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmakta oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK NOTUN NEDENLER\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00d6zetlersek, notumuzun g\u00f6reli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik \u015fu sonu\u00e7lara varabiliriz:<br \/>\n1. Y\u00fcksek ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme olumlu, ama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u0131\u015f finansmana endeksli olmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme kapasitesinin daha y\u00fcksek kredi notuna yans\u0131mas\u0131 ciddi bir oranda \u0131skonto ediliyor.<br \/>\n2. Enflasyonumuz y\u00fcksek. Di\u011fer ekonomik hedeflere varabilmek i\u00e7in enflasyon hedefinden feragat edebiliyoruz.<br \/>\n3. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hem y\u00fcksek hem de finansman\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanmaya dayal\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm veriyor.<br \/>\n4. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Ama, herkesinki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, kamu finansman\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fkenleri kredi notu de\u011ferlendirmesinde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye ek bir avantaj sa\u011flam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin kredi notu S&amp;P kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015funun skalas\u0131na g\u00f6re BB. Notumuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Makro ekonomik alanda \u00f6nemli iyile\u015fmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi halde, notumuz artm\u0131yor. Bu konuda daha&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10745\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}