{"id":10738,"date":"2012-01-23T16:12:48","date_gmt":"2012-01-23T14:12:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10738"},"modified":"2012-01-30T12:06:44","modified_gmt":"2012-01-30T10:06:44","slug":"hayatin-basit-bir-denklemi-3-23-ocak-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hayatin-basit-bir-denklemi-3-23-ocak-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"Hayat\u0131n Basit Bir Denklemi (3) \u2013 23 Ocak 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>En son \u015fu soruyu sormu\u015ftuk. \u00a0Bir \u015firkete \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 kat\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6dersiniz?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2987496800\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sizler de sa\u011f olun cevap verdiniz. En az\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131 yorum yazarak cevap verse de, bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 okuyan herkes kendince bir cevap vermi\u015ftir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00a0Bu a\u015famada sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131n ilk yaz\u0131 i\u00e7inde sakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu da belirtmi\u015ftim. Fakat insan bu t\u00fcr bir soru ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131nca normalde verece\u011fi cevap yerine ultra cevaplar aramaya ba\u015flar. Halbuki hi\u00e7 gerek yoktur.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi olaya \u015f\u00f6yle bakal\u0131m. Kendi bilan\u00e7onuzu ve buradaki \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 tekrar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. Amac\u0131n\u0131z neydi?<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131rmakt\u0131. Bunu h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok yol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftik. Ama riskli yollar da vard\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00fcn varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131rlanmas\u0131na neden olabilecek sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilirdi. Asl\u0131nda \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131rmak pek sorun de\u011fildir. Ama buradaki sorun, KISA vadede h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rma iste\u011fi (HIRS) t\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Her neyse&#8230; Biz konunun \u00f6z\u00fcne d\u00f6nelim. Sizin en b\u00fcy\u00fck amac\u0131, kendi bilan\u00e7onuzda \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 \u015feklindeydi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum hisse se\u00e7erken de ayn\u0131 mant\u0131kla i\u015fler&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bir \u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 100 milyon TL olsun ve \u015firketin piyasa de\u011feri de 100 milyon TL olsun. Bu durumda piyasa de\u011feri\/defter de\u011feri=1 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi varsayal\u0131m ki, piyasa bu \u015firkete hep \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 kadar de\u011fer bi\u00e7iyor. \u00a0Yani PD\/DD hi\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor ve hep &#8220;1&#8221; olarak kal\u0131yor. \u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin bu \u015firket bir y\u0131l sonra 20 milyon TL zarar edince, \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 80 milyon TL&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u00a0PD\/DD oran\u0131 = 1 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re piyasa de\u011feri de 80 milyon TL&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 y\u00fczde 20 zarar ediyor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015firketin hissesi %20 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f oluyor. Ya da tersi olsun&#8230; \u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 20 milyon TL arts\u0131n (yani o y\u0131l 20 milyon TL k\u00e2r etsin). Bu durumda PD\/DD oran\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in Piyasa de\u011feri de 120 milyon TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kacak, hisse sahibi y\u00fczde 20 kazanacakt\u0131r. \u00a0\u0130\u015fte bu noktada sorun olan \u015fey, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde iki tane parametrenin dans ediyor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eirketlerin PD\/DD oranlar\u0131 sabit olmuyor ve s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015febiliyor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015firketin piyasa de\u011feri (hisse fiyat\u0131) her g\u00fcn borsadaki i\u015flemler s\u0131ras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Ayr\u0131ca k\u00e2r veya zarar da sabit kalm\u0131yor ve de\u011fi\u015fiyor. \u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hem PD\/DD oranlar\u0131 hem de K\u00e2r\/zarar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde dans edince kafalar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu noktalara daha sonra gelece\u011fiz ama \u015fimdilik PD\/DD oran\u0131n\u0131n sabit oldu\u011funu ve 1&#8217;e e\u015fit oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. \u0130ki \u015firket olsun ve her ikisinin de PD\/DD oran\u0131 1&#8217;e e\u015fit olsun;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3916450696\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A ve B ad\u0131ndaki bu iki \u015firketten A \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 300 milyon TL ve 1 y\u0131l sonra 30 milyon TL k\u00e2r etmesi bekleniyor; B \u015firketinin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 20 milyon TL ve bir y\u0131l sonra 5 milyon TL k\u00e2r etmesi bekleniyor. \u00a0Acaba hangi hisseyi al\u0131rd\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p>A \u015firketindeki \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 <strong>y\u00fczde 10<\/strong> (30\/300) olurken B \u015firketindeki \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131<strong> y\u00fczde 25<\/strong> (5\/20) olmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda A \u015firketine 100 TL yat\u0131r\u0131rsam 10 Tl \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131m olacak, B \u015firketinin hissesine 100 TL yat\u0131r\u0131rsam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 25 TL \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. \u00a0Burada dikkat ederseniz, \u00a0<strong>&#8220;\u00f6zvarl\u0131k ARTI\u015eIM\u00a0olacak<\/strong>&#8221; diyorum. Yani sanki benim \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131m artacak anlam\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tabi ki bu do\u011fru bir s\u00f6ylemdir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ben hisse al\u0131nca \u015firketin orta\u011f\u0131 oluyorum ve \u015firketin \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131nca benim hisseme d\u00fc\u015fen \u00f6zvarl\u0131k miktar\u0131 da ayn\u0131 oranda art\u0131yor. O s\u0131rada asl\u0131nda piyasa, bu hissenin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmasa da eninde sonunda hisse fiyat\u0131 bu de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde d\u00fczeltme yapar. Bunun \u00f6rneklerini daha sonra g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>O zaman, hisse se\u00e7erken i\u015finiz kolay. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok art\u0131racak \u015firketi bulun&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Tamam hocam bulal\u0131m da&#8230; \u0130ki adet sorum var; 1) \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 en \u00e7ok artacak \u015firketi nas\u0131l bulaca\u011f\u0131z? \u00a02) Bulsak bile hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kadar artmas\u0131 garantisi var m\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-139333700\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi \u015f\u00f6yle bir yasa oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. &#8220;her \u015firketin de\u011feri, \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00a0kadar olur, \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan fazla ya da eksik olamaz&#8221;. Kula\u011fa ho\u015f gelmese de bir an i\u00e7in bu yasan\u0131n var oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim.\u00a0Nas\u0131l ki; bir hisse i\u00e7in <strong>bir g\u00fcnde<\/strong> y\u00fczde 20&#8217;den fazla de\u011fer kazanamaz (<strong>tavan<\/strong>) veya y\u00fczde 20&#8217;den fazla de\u011fer kaybedemez (<strong>taban<\/strong>) kural\u0131n\u0131n var oldu\u011fu gibi b\u00f6yle bir yasa olsayd\u0131 ne olurdu?<\/p>\n<p>A \u015firketinin piyasa de\u011feri bir y\u0131l boyunca 300 milyon TL ve B \u015firketinin piyasa de\u011feri de 25 milyon TL \u00a0olarak sabit kal\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yasa bize b\u00f6yle s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn \u00a0A hissesi 330 milyon TL&#8217;ye y\u00fckselirdi (\u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar yeni bilan\u00e7oda 30 milyonluk k\u00e2r nedeniyle \u00a0330 milyon TL oldu), B hissesi de ayn\u0131 mant\u0131kla 25 milyon TL&#8217;ye y\u00fckselirdi. Yani A hissesi y\u00fczde 10, B hissesi de y\u00fczde 25 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ama b\u00f6yle bir yasa yoksa, yani \u015fu an oldu\u011fu gibi hisse fiyat\u0131 her g\u00fcn hareket ediyorsa ve \u015fu andaki durum ge\u00e7erliyse ne olur?<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa A \u015firketinin <strong>30 milyon TL k\u00e2r edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anda<\/strong>, hisse fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar ve 330 milyon TL&#8217;ye kadar y\u00fckselir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla daha bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan PD\/DD oran\u0131 1.10 seviyesine y\u00fckselirken, B \u015firketinin PD\/DD oran\u0131 da 1.25 seviyesine y\u00fckselir. Demek ki piyasa bu karlar\u0131 do\u011fru tahmin edip, beklemeye ba\u015flarsa hen\u00fcz k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce bu beklentisini fiyata yans\u0131tmaya ba\u015flar&#8230; \u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla A \u015firketi k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 330 milyon ve piyasa de\u011feri de 330 milyon TL oldu\u011fundan PD\/DD oran\u0131 yeniden 1&#8217;e gerilerken B \u015firketi i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 durum ge\u00e7erli olur.<\/p>\n<p>Demek ki, hisse fiyat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran ve PD\/DD oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine neden olan ana fakt\u00f6r k\u00e2r beklentileri <strong>olabilir<\/strong>. \u00a0E\u011fer yukar\u0131da \u00f6rne\u011fini verdi\u011fimiz A \u015firketinin 30 milyon TL zarar edece\u011fini bekliyor olsayd\u0131k, di\u011fer \u015fartlar ayn\u0131 kalmak kayd\u0131yla (yeniden de\u011ferleme ve sermaye art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak) y\u0131l sonunda \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131 300 milyondan 270 milyona d\u00fc\u015fecekti. Bu durumda \u015fu an PD\/DD oran\u0131 1 ise, hisse fiyat\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitmeye ba\u015flar ve PD\/DD oran\u0131 0.90 seviyesine kadar inebilirdi. Ama zarar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra PD\/DD oran\u0131 tekrar 1 seviyesinde olu\u015furdu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015firketin de\u011feri 270 milyona d\u00fc\u015ferken, piyasa de\u011feri de 270 milyona d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olurdu.<\/p>\n<p>Peki ger\u00e7ekte b\u00f6yle mi olmu\u015ftur? Yani son 10 y\u0131lda hisselerin de\u011ferleri \u00f6zvarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u00a0paralel mi gitmi\u015ftir?<\/p>\n<p>Burada son 10 y\u0131ldan bahsediyorum&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sadece 1 y\u0131l\u0131 baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda tam anlam\u0131yla net sonu\u00e7lar alamayabilirsiniz. Ayr\u0131ca hisse piyasas\u0131 uzun vadeli fon sa\u011flama piyasas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden bu piyasada k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca artt\u0131racaksan\u0131z (HIRS) yan\u0131labilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u0131ssadan hisse;<\/strong> G\u00f6reviniz \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki <strong>1 y\u0131lda de\u011fil<\/strong>, en az 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok art\u0131racak \u015firketleri belirlemektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sadece 1 y\u0131la bakacak olursan\u0131z, bu durum zaten \u015fu anki fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde yer almaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden Satran\u00e7taki gibi en az 4-5 hamleyi tahmin etmeniz gerekiyor&#8230; &#8220;Hangi \u015firketler \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok art\u0131racaklar?&#8221; sorusuna ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce \u015fu soruya cevap vermek gerekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ger\u00e7ekten de \u00f6zvarl\u0131klar\u0131na en \u00e7ok ekleme yapan \u015firketler en \u00e7ok de\u011fer kazanan \u015firketler olmu\u015flar m\u0131d\u0131r? \u00a0Devam edece\u011fiz, sa\u011fl\u0131cakla kal\u0131n\u0131z&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>BORSA YORUMU <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>(NOT: <\/strong>Alt\u0131n, dolar ve parite yorumlar\u0131m\u0131 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uzmanforex.com\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.uzmanforex.com<\/a> sitesinden izleyebilirsiniz, videolar da eklendi<strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Endeks kritik bir seviye olan 55.500 direncine yakla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra bir miktar sat\u0131\u015f yedi. Bu seviyedeki diren\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fakat 55.750 \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f olursa y\u00fckseli\u015f devam eder&#8230; \u00a0\u015eu an i\u00e7in bir s\u00fcre 54.500-55.650 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket g\u00f6rebiliriz. \u015eu an al\u0131m \u00f6nermiyorum. Elinde ka\u011f\u0131t olanlar nakde ge\u00e7ip daha sonra alttan al\u0131m deneyebilirler ama bunun bir riski var. E\u011fer hacimli bir \u015fekilde 55.750 seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 300-400 puan yukar\u0131dan yeniden al\u0131m yapmak ve y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lmak gerekir. Ya da \u015fu an hi\u00e7bir\u015fey yapmadan 54.000 civar\u0131na kadar gerilemeyi g\u00f6ze al\u0131p beklemede de kal\u0131nabilir. \u00a0Bu a\u015famda ben olsam yeni al\u0131m yapmam, 55.750&#8217;den al\u0131m yapmak daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r. \u00a0E\u011fer 53.500-54.250 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olursa o seviyelerden hisse al\u0131r\u0131m. Stop loss seviyem de 53.110 olur.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En son \u015fu soruyu sormu\u015ftuk. \u00a0Bir \u015firkete \u00d6zvarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 kat\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6dersiniz? Sizler de sa\u011f olun cevap verdiniz. En az\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131 yorum yazarak cevap verse de,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10738"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10738\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}