{"id":10689,"date":"2012-01-21T09:55:16","date_gmt":"2012-01-21T07:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10689"},"modified":"2012-01-21T09:55:27","modified_gmt":"2012-01-21T07:55:27","slug":"likidite-tiryakileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/likidite-tiryakileri\/","title":{"rendered":"Likidite Tiryakileri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ralli bekleniyordu, hani hat\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z \u201cNoel Baba Rallisi\u201d. Olmad\u0131, zira AB\u2019nin durumundan kimse emin olamad\u0131! Ard\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1 sabit faizle fonlamas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme oturdu. 523 banka 498 milyar euro bor\u00e7land\u0131lar. Yine de piyasalarda bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u201cbeklenen ralli\u201d ger\u00e7ekle\u222bemedi ve y\u0131l kapand\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4008541723\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ralli gelmedi, gelemedi derken sebep anla\u222b\u0131ld\u0131. S&amp;P\u2019nin Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda \u201cyanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla\u201d d\u00fc\u222b\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Fransa\u2019n\u0131n AAA notunun ger\u00e7ekte d\u00fc\u015fme tehlikesi ufuktayd\u0131. Nitekim d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc de&#8230; Beraberinde 8 AB \u00fclkesinin notu da 1-2 kademe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Bunun piyasalar\u0131 olumsuz etkielemsi beklenirken adeta tam tersi oldu. Karar sonras\u0131nda euro bir ara 1.2622\u2019ye kadar geriledi, o kadar. Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 t\u0131nmad\u0131 neredeyse. K\u0131sa bir \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131ktan sonra ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren hem hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 hem de euro sanki notlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmemi\u015f de artt\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi bir \u201ctav\u0131r\u201d sergiledi. Endekslerde ciddi y\u00fckseli\u015fler olurken euro, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcn 1.2986\u2019ya kadar y\u00fckseldi!<\/p>\n<p>Ne var bu y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131nda derseniz belki de tek a\u00e7\u0131klama \u201clikidite tiryakili\u011fi\u201d olacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n \u201cnegatif\u201d haberi sadece S&amp;P\u2019nin 9 AB \u00fclkenin notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi de\u011fildi. Moody\u2019s de benzer y\u00f6nde bir indirimden s\u00f6z ederken AB i\u00e7in as\u0131l darbe D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan geldi. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminin y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken AB\u2019nin y\u00fczde 0.3 daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Avrupa hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 bu tahmini hi\u00e7 mi hi\u00e7 ka\u2019ale almad\u0131lar. Zira notu indirilen \u0130talya, Portekiz, \u0130spanya bu hafta i\u00e7inde yapm\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n hem miktar hem de faiz olarak not indirimi \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha iyi ko\u015fullarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fltirmi\u015flerdi. Sa\u011folas\u0131n ECB ve onun 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k likiditesi. \u015eubat ay\u0131 sonlar\u0131nda yeni bir ihale ile daha da fazla likidite verecek ECB. Piyasalar bu arada ECB\u2019ye d\u00f6nen bu likiditenin reel ekonomiye neden girmedi\u011fini demek sorgulam\u0131yorlar. Bu likiditenin ekonomiye d\u00f6nm\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 de\u011fil mi zaten ekonomik daralmay\u0131 getirecek olan? Di\u011fer yandan AB b\u00f6lgesi ekonomik olarak daral\u0131rken; do\u011fal olarak \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rlar\u0131 da daralacak; \u015firketlerin de\u011ferleri (dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131) nas\u0131l artaca\u011f\u0131 da \u015fimdilik kimsenin umurunda de\u011fil! Yeterki bu \u201ctiryakilere\u201d yeni likidite verilsin.<\/p>\n<p>ECB\u2019nin likiditesi yetmezse diye IMF de devreye girdi ge\u00e7en hafta! Bu da \u201ctiryakiler\u201d i\u00e7in iyi haberdi. Biri olmazsa, di\u011ferinden \u201cm\u00fcptela olunan likidite\u201d temin edilecekti. Z\u0131mni bir garantiydi bu! Hafta i\u00e7inde IMF \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u201c\u00fcyelerinin\u201d duyacaklar\u0131 ek fonlama ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in 600 milyar dolarl\u0131k daha \u201climit\u201d art\u0131t\u0131rmak istedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. K\u00fcresel ekonomide ya\u015fanabilecek darbo\u011fazlar nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 1 trilyon dolara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor IMF. Hal\u00fchaz\u0131rca 380 milyar dolarl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 olan IMF \u015fimdiden \u00f6nlem al\u0131yor!<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 AB i\u00e7in kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bu fonlar i\u00e7in \u2018muhtemel kullan\u0131c\u0131\u2019 AB \u00fclkeleri bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131 garanti etmi\u015fler. Eh, ne de olsa kaz gelecek yerden tavuk esirgenmezmi\u015f&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Ancak; Kanada, ABD, Japonya ve G.Kore yeni art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131; (Yunanistan ve mali birlik v.b) g\u00f6rmek istediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f durumdalar. ABD i\u00e7in bir ba\u015fka sorun daha var. Teknik olarak oy hakk\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131y\u0131 yapmas\u0131 beklenen ABD i\u00e7in \u201ckaynak\u201d sorunu var. IMF\u2019ye sa\u011flanacak kaynak i\u00e7in ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin bir yerlerden bor\u00e7lanma limiti yaratabilmesi laz\u0131m ki, fon bulabilsin ve IMF\u2019ye kaynak aktarabilsin. Kendi ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in limit problemi ya\u015fayan ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin IMF\u2019ye yard\u0131m edece\u011fini varsayal\u0131m, ge\u00e7elim&#8230; Piyasalar i\u00e7in nereden geldi\u011finin bir \u00f6nemi yok, yeterki bol ve ucuz likidite gelsin. T\u0131pk\u0131 uyu\u015fturucu m\u00fcptelalar\u0131 gibi&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ralli bekleniyordu, hani hat\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z \u201cNoel Baba Rallisi\u201d. Olmad\u0131, zira AB\u2019nin durumundan kimse emin olamad\u0131! Ard\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}