{"id":10666,"date":"2012-01-20T11:35:41","date_gmt":"2012-01-20T09:35:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10666"},"modified":"2012-01-20T11:36:01","modified_gmt":"2012-01-20T09:36:01","slug":"dunya-bankasida-kervana-katildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dunya-bankasida-kervana-katildi\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131&#8217;da Kervana Kat\u0131ld\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin\u00a0 yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, yava\u015flaman\u0131n\u00a0 geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ayr\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeksizin t\u00fcm \u00fclkelere yay\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0 Bu konuda \u00f6nemli bir fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok. Kimse d\u00fcnya\u00a0 ekonomisi\u00a0 h\u0131zlanacak demiyor. Yava\u015flaman\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f\u00a0 \u00fclkelerde daha y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda da ciddi bir ayr\u0131l\u0131k yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-843562154\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 nokta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flaman\u0131n dozu ile ilgili. Baz\u0131lar\u0131\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda hem ulusal ekonomilerde\u00a0 hem de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde a\u011f\u0131r dozlu bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kimileri de yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ediyor ama\u00a0 bunun\u00a0 dozunun\u00a0 y\u00fcksek olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor,\u00a0\u00a0 Bunlar\u00a0 ne\u00a0 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ne de ulusal ekonomilerin 2008-2009 d\u00f6nemindekine benzer bir daralma-k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme\u00a0 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini\u00a0 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bizim i\u00e7in de benzer de\u011ferlendirmeler var.\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00e7ok sert bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla yeni bir kriz ortam\u0131na\u00a0 savrulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler\u00a0 var. Bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131nda\u00a0 uyumsuzluklar\u00a0 var ama 2012 yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n krize giden yolu a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 ekonomideki\u00a0\u00a0 yava\u015flaman\u0131n\u00a0\u00a0 g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131,\u00a0 bundan bir kriz dinami\u011fi \u00fcretmenin\u00a0 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunanlar da var.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ilgin\u00e7 bir noktaya i\u015faret etmek istiyorum.\u00a0 Genel\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 de\u011ferlendirme\u00a0 ve\u00a0 yorumlarda da durum b\u00f6yle ama \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye ile ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerde\u00a0 en u\u00e7ta,\u00a0 en karamsar ve en kayg\u0131l\u0131\u00a0 pozisyonlarda\u00a0 uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yanl\u0131\u015f hat\u0131rlam\u0131yorsam bu durum ge\u00e7en yaz\u00a0 sonunda\u00a0 yay\u0131nlanan bir IMF raporu ile ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0\u00a0 ekonomisinin\u00a0\u00a0 2012\u00a0 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok sert bir yava\u015flama\u00a0 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131\u00a0 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ilk kez IMF dile getirdi.\u00a0 Bu noktaya kadar i\u00e7eride de tart\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131l\u0131yordu\u00a0 tabii\u00a0 ama geli\u015ftirilen senaryo\u00a0 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler g\u00f6rece daha\u00a0 iyimserdi. Yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyordu ama bunun g\u00f6rece yumu\u015fak olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.\u00a0 IMF&#8217;nin tahminleri hafif can s\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>IMF&#8217;nin\u00a0\u00a0 hemen\u00a0 arkas\u0131ndan\u00a0 OECD\u00a0 raporu\u00a0 geldi.\u00a0\u00a0 OECD\u00a0\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde IMF&#8217;nin tahmin etti\u011finden de sert bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 tahmin ediyor,\u00a0 bunun kriz sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6sterilen performans\u0131\u00a0 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez\u00a0 hale getirece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0 ekonomisinde\u00a0\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir iktisadi kriz\u00a0 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu daha net bir ifade ile OECD taraf\u0131ndan dile getiriliyordu.\u00a0 Can s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n dozu artt\u0131 tabii.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslar aras\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n\u00a0 yay\u0131nlad\u0131klar\u0131\u00a0 raporlar\u0131n esas can s\u0131kan yan\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fckleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin\u00a0 biraz havada kal\u0131yor olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle,\u00a0 bu kurumlar sert bir yava\u015flama hatta kriz\u00a0 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlard\u0131\u00a0 ama\u00a0 bu\u00a0 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini\u00a0 dayand\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131\u00a0 bulgu ve arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 ikna edici de\u011fildi. Her iki kurum da zay\u0131f kan\u0131tlardan b\u00fcy\u00fck senaryolar \u00fcretiyordu. En az\u0131ndan benim de\u011ferlendirmem b\u00f6yleydi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1882019197\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta bu kervana D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da kat\u0131ld\u0131. Ocak ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan &#8220;K\u00fcresel\u00a0 \u0130ktisadi Olas\u0131l\u0131klar&#8221; (Global\u00a0 Economic Prospects) ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131\u00a0 raporda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin\u00a0 ve ulusal ekonomilerin 2012 performanslar\u0131na\u00a0 ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler var. \u00d6ncekilerin de\u011ferlendirmelerinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 de\u011fil bunlar.\u00a0\u00a0 K\u00fcresel\u00a0\u00a0 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor, yava\u015flaman\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor.\u00a0 Euro b\u00f6lgesinde\u00a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin\u00a0 negatif olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda neden b\u00f6yle bir tablo ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 sorusuna verilen cevapta bilmedi\u011fimiz bir \u015fey yok. Kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, kamu bor\u00e7lanma d\u00fczeyleri ,\u00a0 d\u0131\u015f dengesizlik, finansman imkanlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 daralma vb 2012 de g\u00f6r\u00fclecek olan yava\u015flaman\u0131n nedenleri olarak s\u0131ralan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Laf geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere gelince rapor\u00a0 bunlar\u0131n\u00a0 2008 den daha sert \u015foklarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Neden diyince yine ayn\u0131 ya da benzer nedenler s\u0131ralan\u0131yor.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye de bu grupta yer al\u0131yor.\u00a0 Ancak\u00a0 2012\u00a0 yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan en sert bi\u00e7imde etkilenecek\u00a0 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ba\u015f k\u00f6\u015feye oturtuluyor.\u00a0 Neden diye bak\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda i\u015f biraz sarpa sar\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda etkin olacak sorunlardan\u00a0 d\u0131\u015f dengesizlik hari\u00e7 hi\u00e7 birisi T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de yok. Dahas\u0131, say\u0131lan bu nedenlerden bir \u00e7o\u011funda\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi olumlu y\u00f6nde ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1160054152\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6ncekiler\u00a0 gibi\u00a0 D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 raporu da zay\u0131f kan\u0131tlardan b\u00fcy\u00fck senaryolar \u00fcretme hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile malul gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ya\u015fay\u0131p g\u00f6relim bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin\u00a0 yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, yava\u015flaman\u0131n\u00a0 geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ayr\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeksizin t\u00fcm \u00fclkelere yay\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0 Bu konuda \u00f6nemli bir fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10666\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}