{"id":10616,"date":"2012-01-19T10:11:24","date_gmt":"2012-01-19T08:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10616"},"modified":"2012-01-19T10:11:49","modified_gmt":"2012-01-19T08:11:49","slug":"dunya-bankasi-gozluguyle-turkiye-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dunya-bankasi-gozluguyle-turkiye-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 G\u00f6zl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcyle T\u00fcrkiye 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son olarak D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da 2012 tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 (Global Economic Prospects raporu.) D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, k\u00fcresel sistemin yaln\u0131zca makro d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil mikro d\u00fczeyde de nabz\u0131n\u0131 en iyi tutan kurulu\u015flardan birisi. O nedenle tahminleri \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1025529734\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<div>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re 2012\u2019de k\u00fcresel ticaretin hacmi 2011 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4,7 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta ticaret hacminde iyi say\u0131labilecek bir art\u0131\u015f olacakm\u0131\u015f izlenimini verse de asl\u0131nda bu oran ticaret hacminin zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7inde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2009\u2019da y\u00fczde 10,6 gerilemi\u015f olan ticaret hacmi, 2010\u2019da y\u00fczde 12,4, 2011\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 6,6 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/div>\n<p>K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2,5, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 1,4 oran\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edildi\u011fi bir y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,7\u2019lik ticaret hacmi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tutarl\u0131 bir tahmin olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda T\u00fcrkiye ile ilgili de\u011ferlendirmeler de var.\u00a0<strong>T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 2011 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 8,2, 2012 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,9 olarak tahmin ediliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0Tahmin ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu olacak.\u00a0<strong>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fczde 7,5\u00a0<\/strong>olarak<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>tahmin edilmi\u015f.\u00a0Yani b\u00fcy\u00fcmede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenirken cari a\u00e7\u0131kta o kadar da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenmiyor. E\u011fer bu tahmin ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in can s\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olu\u015facak demektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fcme gibi, h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeyip hala y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde seyretmesi finansman zorlu\u011funu art\u0131racak bir geli\u015fme olarak de\u011ferlendirilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f kaynak toplam\u0131 olarak GSYH\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 19\u2019u oran\u0131nda tahmin ediliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0Bunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 da d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 geri \u00f6demeleri nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu da kabaca 110 \u2013 120 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda bir finansman ihtiyac\u0131 demek. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, bu miktara ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n bile\u015fiminde k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131na bakarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamakta zorlanacak \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 vurgusunu yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Finansman sorunuyla ilgi bir ba\u015fka konu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Avrupa bankalar\u0131na ait olmas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6steriliyor. GSYH\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20\u2019si dolay\u0131nda bir bor\u00e7 tutar\u0131 Avrupa bankalar\u0131na ait bulunuyor. Buradaki temel sorun bunlar\u0131n vadeleri geldi\u011finde yenilenmeme sorunudur. \u0130yi durumda olmayan Avrupa bankalar\u0131 bu kredileri zaman\u0131 geldi\u011finde ba\u015fka ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in tahsis edebilir ve yenilemeye g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olmayabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda dikkat \u00e7eken bir ba\u015fka nokta bor\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerinde ithalat\u0131n da paralel bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc.\u00a0<strong>Euro b\u00f6lgesine en \u00e7ok ihracat yapan \u00fclkeler bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften en fazla etkilenecek \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0\u0130hracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini Euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerine yapan Romanya, Litvanya, Letonya ve Makedonya bu daralmadan en fazla etkilenecek \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. \u0130hracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 47\u2019sini Euro b\u00f6lgesine yapan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de bu ticaret d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden \u00f6nemli oranda etkilenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6zetle D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 2012 i\u00e7in iyimser bir tablo \u00e7izmiyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son olarak D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da 2012 tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 (Global Economic Prospects raporu.) D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, k\u00fcresel sistemin yaln\u0131zca makro d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil mikro d\u00fczeyde de nabz\u0131n\u0131 en&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}