{"id":10590,"date":"2012-01-18T21:01:28","date_gmt":"2012-01-18T19:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10590"},"modified":"2012-01-18T21:01:44","modified_gmt":"2012-01-18T19:01:44","slug":"cin-dunyayi-kurtarir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cin-dunyayi-kurtarir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in D\u00fcnyay\u0131 Kurtar\u0131r m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in ekonomisi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeylerin alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ama, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f korkuldu\u011fu kadar olmad\u0131. Korkulan olmay\u0131nca, tepki olarak \u00c7in&#8217;den gelen talep devam eder beklentisiyle emtia fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131.<br \/>\n2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda en yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek ekonomilerden biri hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz \u00c7in. Milli gelir a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi durumuna gelen \u00c7in&#8217;in k\u00fcresel ekonomik dengeleri belirleyebilecek bir potansiyele ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etmesi k\u00fcresel talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin de devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<br \/>\n\u00c7in d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir mi?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-244058915\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>DI\u015e TALEP \u0130\u00c7\u0130N KUR POL\u0130T\u0130KASI<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00c7in ekonomisi d\u0131\u015f taleple b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilen bir ekonomi. N\u00fcfusu kalabal\u0131k, ama talep yaratan bir n\u00fcfus de\u011fil. Talep \u00fclkenin do\u011fu k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndan geliyor, bat\u0131 \u00e7ok fakir. Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile bat\u0131 b\u00f6lgesinin de kalk\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u00c7in ekonomisinin bu denli y\u00fcksek oranlarda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ancak d\u0131\u015f talep yoluyla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabiliyor.<br \/>\n\u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ekonomilerin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda pek de parlak bir performans sergilemeyecekleri beklendi\u011fine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in&#8217;in d\u0131\u015f talep yarat\u0131labilmesinin tek yolu kur politikas\u0131. Paras\u0131n\u0131 olabildi\u011fince de\u011fersiz k\u0131larak \u00c7in (\u00fcretti\u011fi mallar\u0131 yabanc\u0131 paralar cinsinden ucuzlatarak), yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallar\u0131na d\u0131\u015f talep yaratabiliyor. Bu politika di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan ele\u015ftiriliyor. Ama, \u00c7in \u00e7e\u015fitli hammadde ve emtiada talep yaratacaksa, bu, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fersiz paras\u0131 yoluyla yarat\u0131lan d\u0131\u015f talep sayesinde gelen ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle olacak.<br \/>\nEkonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 10&#8217;a yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde \u00c7in&#8217;de enflasyon ba\u015f kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Otoriteler \u0131s\u0131nan ekonomiye para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131karak tepki veriyorlar. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00c7in paras\u0131 Yuan&#8217;\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin veriyorlar. Ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nma d\u00f6nemlerinde uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 para ve kur politikas\u0131 hem ekonomiyi biraz so\u011futmaya yar\u0131yor hem de artan enflasyon tehdidini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 bir anlamda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda uygulamaya konan bu politikan\u0131n sonucuydu. \u015eimdi bu senaryonun tersi g\u00fcndeme gelecek.<br \/>\n\u00c7in&#8217;de son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimine girdi. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flad\u0131. Politikalar kendinden bekleneni verdi. \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015f talep zay\u0131f. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu d\u00f6nemde d\u0131\u015f talebi canland\u0131rman\u0131n tek yolu yine fiyat. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Yuan&#8217;\u0131n de\u011fer kazanma s\u00fcreci b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla sekteye u\u011frayacak. Aksine, Yuan dolar ve Euro&#8217;ya kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer yitirmeye devam edebilir. Para politikas\u0131 biraz gev\u015feyecektir. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 4 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, ekonomi politikalar\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verilecektir.<br \/>\nBa\u015fta Amerika olmak \u00fczere \u00c7in&#8217;in Yuan politikas\u0131 G-20&#8217;de ele\u015ftirilecektir. Amerikan Hazinesi \u00c7in&#8217;in Yuan politikas\u0131n\u0131 &#8220;para manip\u00fclat\u00f6r\u00fc&#8221; ibaresini kullanmadan g\u00fcndemde tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Ama, \u00c7in&#8217;in y\u00fczde 9 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etmesi i\u00e7in ba\u015fka bir yol da yoktur. \u00c7in&#8217;in bu d\u00fczeyde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler de nemalanacakt\u0131r.<br \/>\nAmerika ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8&#8217;ine yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in&#8217;e yap\u0131yor. Bu oran Japonya&#8217;da y\u00fczde 20, Almanya&#8217;da y\u00fczde 5. \u00c7in de ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20&#8217;sine yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 Amerika&#8217;ya, y\u00fczde 8&#8217;ini Japonya&#8217;ya, y\u00fczde 5&#8217;ini Almanya&#8217;ya yap\u0131yor. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmeyecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u00c7in ekonomisi tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fcnya ekonomisini kurtaramayabilir, ama \u00c7in ekonomisinin t\u00f6kezlemesi d\u00fcnya ekonomisini bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok fena h\u0131rpalar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in ekonomisi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeylerin alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ama, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f korkuldu\u011fu kadar olmad\u0131. Korkulan olmay\u0131nca,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":5391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10590\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}