{"id":10532,"date":"2012-01-18T10:24:34","date_gmt":"2012-01-18T08:24:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10532"},"modified":"2012-01-18T10:27:18","modified_gmt":"2012-01-18T08:27:18","slug":"avrupada-kredi-notu-katliami","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupada-kredi-notu-katliami\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa&#8217;da Kredi Notu Katliam\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">S&amp;P<\/span>\u00a0 Avrupa\u00a0 Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin dokuz \u00fcyesinin kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.\u00a0 Bu katliam boyutunda\u00a0 bir olay ku\u015fkusuz.\u00a0 Bunu Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin sonu olarak de\u011ferlendirenler oldu.\u00a0 Ben ters bir noktay\u0131m.\u00a0 Kredi notu\u00a0 katliam\u0131n\u0131n AB&#8217;nin yeniden kurgulanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2291062417\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda kredi notu indirimi sonras\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler de bu de\u011ferlendirmeyi do\u011frular gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce b\u00f6yle bir kitlesel katliam yap\u0131lsayd\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m yer yerinen oynard\u0131. Hemen asr\u0131n olay\u0131 yaftas\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131 buna. Ama dikkat ettiyseniz yayg\u0131n kredi notu indirimi \u00f6nemi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcnde ilgi \u00e7ekmedi, \u00f6nemli bir etki yaratmad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Kredi notu katliam\u0131n\u0131n iki boyutu var. Bunlardan birisi notu indirenle \u00f6teki de notu indirilenlerle ilgili. Notu indiren kurulu\u015f bu alan\u0131n eskilerinden ve bir d\u00f6nem en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu. Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ve d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011findeki i\u015flevselli\u011finin k\u00fcreselle\u015fme s\u00fcreciyle paralel geli\u015fti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Liberalle\u015fen ve daha piyasa a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hale gelen k\u00fcresel ekonomide kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 piyasa akt\u00f6rlerinin risk de\u011ferlendirmesinin temel referans\u0131 haline geldiler. Ama kredi derecelendirme kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n esas g\u00fc\u00e7 ve itibar kazanmalar\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerinin serbestle\u015fmesi ve \u00fcstlerindeki\u00a0 reg\u00fclasyon\u00a0 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ile oldu.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel kriz s\u00fcreci\u00a0 bu kurumlar\u0131n\u00a0 g\u00fc\u00e7 ve itibar\u0131 pek de\u00a0 d\u00fczg\u00fcn kullanmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131.\u00a0 Nitekim, kredi\u00a0 derecelendirme\u00a0 kurumlar\u0131\u00a0 g\u00fc\u00e7 ve itibarlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel kriz s\u00fcrecinde\u00a0 kaybettiler.\u00a0 Bunun iki nedeni vard\u0131. Nedenlerden birisi kriz s\u00fcrecinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kredi notu skandallar\u0131 oldu. Fiili durumla kredi notlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda u\u00e7urumlar oldu\u011fu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ortaya. Bu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n i\u015flerini gereken \u00f6zen ve yans\u0131zl\u0131kla yapmad\u0131klar\u0131na dair bir inan\u00e7 geli\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>Kriz dinami\u011fini kestirip bunu\u00a0 kredi\u00a0 notlar\u0131na\u00a0 yans\u0131tmakta sergiledikleri zafiyet s\u00f6z konusu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u00a0 kriz \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fc\u00e7 ve itibarlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmelerinin ikinci nedeni oldu.\u00a0 Riski \u00f6nceden alg\u0131lamas\u0131 gereken bu kurumlar\u0131n tam tersine b\u00f6yle bir alg\u0131 geli\u015ftirme kabiliyetlerinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130tibar s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P&#8217;nin\u00a0 dokuz\u00a0 Avrupa \u00fclkesinin kredi notunu tek kalemde indirmesinin pek de \u00f6nemli bir etki yaratmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131\u00a0 indirimi yapan taraf\u0131n ciddi itibar kayb\u0131na u\u011fram\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3621542983\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131\u00a0 s\u00fcrecin ikinci y\u00fcz\u00fc kredi notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclenlerle ilgili. Burada da k\u00fcresel krizle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir itibar sorunu oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Kriz AB ekonomisinin \u00f6nemli zafiyetlerle malul oldu\u011funu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131. \u00dcye \u00fclkelerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda \u00f6nemli makroekonomik dengesizlikler oldu\u011fu ama bunun \u00f6teki g\u00f6stergelere yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n engellendi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, bu t\u00fcr sorunlar\u0131n tekil \u00fclkelerde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kredi notu sonucunun Avrupa Birli\u011finde s\u00fcrekli \u00f6telenmi\u015f oldu\u011fu da kriz sayesinde anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Makroekonomik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 kriz s\u00fcrecinde art\u0131k \u00f6teleyemeyen AB \u00fclkelerinde birden fazla kredi notu indirimi yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Katliam d\u00fczeyine ula\u015fan son not indiriminin \u00f6zelli\u011fi hem makroekonomik zafiyet i\u00e7inde olup hem de buna g\u00f6re bir kal\u0131p i\u00e7inde var olmay\u0131 reddeden, \u00f6rne\u011fin Fransa gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fck AB \u00fcyelerinin de\u00a0 bu\u00a0 pakete\u00a0 dahil edilmi\u015f olmalar\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta\u00a0\u00a0 S&amp;P&#8217;nin gecikerek de olsa gerekeni yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. K\u00fcresel krizle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan yeni dinamikler Avrupa Birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde yer alan pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin gereken boyutlara, yani kendi do\u011fal iktisadi koordinatlar\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesini zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1928576704\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 eskinin egemen \u00fclkeleri. Bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da egemenlerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Birlik i\u00e7inde daha g\u00fcvenli ve\u00a0 imkanl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ya\u015fayabileceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen \u00e7evre \u00fclkeleri. Bu birliktelik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerine kendi\u00a0\u00a0 imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u015fan ya\u015fama imkanlar\u0131\u00a0 verdi. Yap\u0131sal zafiyeti olan bir k\u0131s\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fckler de\u00a0 ulusal\u00a0 imkan \u00f6tesi bir \u015fi\u015fkinlik i\u00e7inde var olmay\u0131 adeta sisteme dayatt\u0131lar.\u00a0 Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 da bu \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131 kendi risk g\u00f6stergelerine yans\u0131tmaya yana\u015fmad\u0131. Hastal\u0131kl\u0131 yap\u0131lar itibarl\u0131 \u00fclke olarak var olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcler.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu oyunun bozuldu\u011fu, herkesin kendi iktisadi boyutlar\u0131na \u00e7ekilmeye zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 bir zaman dilimini ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Sonu\u00e7ta S&amp;P gibi kurulu\u015flar da oyunun bozuldu\u011funu kabullenmek zorunda kald\u0131lar. Son tepkisizlikten anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 gibi bu\u00a0 kabul onlara itibarlar\u0131n\u0131 iade etmedi.\u00a0 Ama Avrupa&#8217;ya kendi birli\u011fini daha rasyonel \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yeniden kurma imkan\u0131\u00a0 verecektir\u00a0 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P\u00a0 Avrupa\u00a0 Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin dokuz \u00fcyesinin kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.\u00a0 Bu katliam boyutunda\u00a0 bir olay ku\u015fkusuz.\u00a0 Bunu Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin sonu olarak de\u011ferlendirenler oldu.\u00a0 Ben ters bir noktay\u0131m.\u00a0&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10532\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}