{"id":10529,"date":"2012-01-18T10:23:25","date_gmt":"2012-01-18T08:23:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10529"},"modified":"2012-01-18T10:27:32","modified_gmt":"2012-01-18T08:27:32","slug":"dis-finansman-konusu-belirsizligi-artiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dis-finansman-konusu-belirsizligi-artiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u0131\u015f Finansman Konusu Belirsizli\u011fi Art\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">K\u00fcresel<\/span>\u00a0d\u00fczeyde risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 ve finansman imk\u00e2nlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, daha n\u00f6ceki d\u00f6nemlere g\u00f6re isabetli tahmin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalt\u0131yor. E\u011fer ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen parasal geni\u015fleme risk alma iste\u011fi ile desteklenir ise ya\u015fanacaklar ile aksi ihtimalde g\u00fcndeme gelecek e\u011filimlerin taban tabana z\u0131t senaryolara i\u015faret etmesi bu sonu\u00e7ta etkili oluyor. \u0130\u015fin tuhaf\u0131 s\u00f6zkonusu u\u00e7 senoryalardan hangisinin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha az olumsuz olabilece\u011fini de \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2065882810\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir an i\u00e7in geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomi merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeye devam etti\u011fini, gerek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larda, gerekse mali sekt\u00f6r kurumlar\u0131nda risk alma iste\u011finin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayal\u0131m. Bu durumda hem sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda, hem de emtia piyasalar\u0131nda hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r y\u00fckseli\u015fler ya\u015fanabilir. Bu veya benzeri bir senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme \u015fans\u0131 pek y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira parasal geni\u015fleme ve risk alma iste\u011findeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar hem devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 engelliyor, hem de yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dalgalanmalar nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00dclkemizin etkili ve yetkili kesimleri ise bu t\u00fcr bir senaryoyu tercih ediyor. Zira ancak bu olas\u0131l\u0131kta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa tercih yapma \u015fans\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelir iken zorunluluklar azal\u0131yor. E\u011fer parasal geni\u015fleme olur da risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 belli bir d\u00fczeyin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmaz ise ciddi boyutta cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile bor\u00e7 sorunu olan ekonomilerin d\u0131\u015f finansman imkanlar\u0131 daral\u0131yor; sorunlar a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131r iken i\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclen k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcden \u00e7\u0131kmak zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Temel sorun ise parasal geni\u015fleme ile spek\u00fclatif karakterli risk alma iste\u011fi aras\u0131ndaki uyumsuzluktan a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fm\u0131\u015f sorunlar\u0131n gelecek \u00fczerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ipotekten kaynaklan\u0131yor. Parasal geni\u015flemenin bir kere yap\u0131lmas\u0131, bunun orta-uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m anlam\u0131nda risk ama iste\u011fini uyarmas\u0131 ve devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Biraz daha somutla\u015ft\u0131ral\u0131m: Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretme \u015fans\u0131 yok ve bu nedenle g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarma ama\u00e7l\u0131 ve parasal geni\u015flemeye dayal\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm oldu\u011fu iddia ediliyor. B\u00f6yle bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te euro t\u00fcm paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybediyor. Gerek Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;ne, gerekse k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin durgunluk endi\u015feleri art\u0131yor, risk alma iste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kam\u0131yor. Emtia ve sermaye piyasalar\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareket yapam\u0131yor, sa\u011flam liman arama ihtiyac\u0131 art\u0131yor, sa\u011flam liman arama ihtiyac\u0131 art\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankalar\u0131n\u0131n durumu ve muhafazak\u00e2r tavr\u0131 bu sonu\u00e7ta k\u0131smen etkili oluyor. Parasal geni\u015fleme ekonomiyi hareketlendiremiyor. Geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kamay\u0131\u015f\u0131, geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131n ise potansiyelini k\u0131smen t\u00fcketerek sorunlu hale gelmesi hareket yetene\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Mevcut beklentilerde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmaz ise T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f finansman imk\u00e2nlar\u0131nda \u00f6nceki y\u0131llar\u0131 aramak durumunda kalabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 son bir aydaki dalgalanma band\u0131nda gezinebilir. 2012 genelinde istisnai g\u00fcnlerin toplam i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a ortalama fonlama maliyeti daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde olabilir ve enflasyonda umulan gerileme ya\u015fanmayabilir. Bu olas\u0131l\u0131kta i\u00e7erde kredi hacminde ya\u015fanacak art\u0131\u015f nispeten s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r, i\u00e7 talep daral\u0131r, b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinde ya\u015fanacak gerilemeyi telafi etmek zorla\u015fabilir. Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, 2B arazileri ve bedelli askerlik gibi tasar\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7eye yapaca\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin gerisinde kalabilir. Zira d\u0131\u015f finansman imkanlar\u0131ndaki daralma yaln\u0131z kredi hacmini de\u011fil, kredi deste\u011fine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 da olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiler. Ekonomi daral\u0131r, enflasyon umulan oranda gerilemez ve i\u015fsizlik artabilir; cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenenin de alt\u0131na iner iken b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir. Bu olumsuzluklar\u0131 gidermek ad\u0131na Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n devreye girmesi ise durumu d\u00fczeltmek yerine belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na katk\u0131 yapabilir.<\/p>\n<p>2012 senesinin nas\u0131l ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck, biliyoruz fakat ne t\u00fcr geli\u015fmelerni g\u00fcndeme gelece\u011fini ve ya\u015fanacak dalgalanmalar\u0131n hangi boyutlara ula\u015fabilece\u011fini tahmin edemiyoruz. Sadece her olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate alman\u0131n ve tedbirli olman\u0131n kritik \u00f6nemde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel\u00a0d\u00fczeyde risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 ve finansman imk\u00e2nlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, daha n\u00f6ceki d\u00f6nemlere g\u00f6re isabetli tahmin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalt\u0131yor. E\u011fer ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen parasal geni\u015fleme risk&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10529\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}