{"id":10513,"date":"2012-01-18T08:46:45","date_gmt":"2012-01-18T06:46:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10513"},"modified":"2012-01-18T08:47:03","modified_gmt":"2012-01-18T06:47:03","slug":"kirk-defa-aptal-dersen-aptal-olur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kirk-defa-aptal-dersen-aptal-olur\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u0131rk Defa Aptal Dersen, Aptal Olur"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>SANK\u0130 gizli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 Avrupa\u2019da finansal kriz \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu gizli g\u00fcc\u00fcn, gizli olmayan y\u00fcz\u00fc \u201cDerecelendirme Kurulu\u015flar\u0131\u201d.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2828540323\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu i\u015fin arkas\u0131nda ABD mi yoksa Almanya m\u0131 var anlayamad\u0131m. Ya da hi\u00e7 kimse yok, ama derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda kaybettikleri itibarlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden kazanmak i\u00e7in \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u201d temkinli davran\u0131yorlar. Hani T\u00fcrk\u00e7e\u2019de \u201cs\u00fctten a\u011fz\u0131 yanan, yo\u011furdu \u00fcfleyerek yermi\u015f\u201d diye bir s\u00f6z vard\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131nki de o hesap. S\u00fct\u00fcn, dil yakacak kadar s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131 olur, ama yo\u011furdun s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131, hele hele dil yakacak kadar kaynar\u0131 olmaz. Ge\u00e7en hafta ortas\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2.7 nominal faiz getiren \u0130talyan devlet tahvillerini ald\u0131ktan \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn sonra, bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmenin kime ne faydas\u0131 var? Bir \u00fclkenin kredi notunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131n\u0131n tek bir sonucu vard\u0131r. O \u00fclke yeni ihra\u00e7 edece\u011fi devlet tahvillerine y\u00fcksek faiz verme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alt\u0131na girer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Y\u00dcKSEK FA\u0130Z BORCUN GER\u0130 \u00d6DENEMEME R\u0130SK\u0130N\u0130 ARTTIRIR<\/strong><br \/>\nKorkulan ve artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenen riskin somut tan\u0131m\u0131 nedir? Cevap: Notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen Avrupa devletlerinin \u201ctahvil ihrac\u0131 yoluyla\u201d halktan (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lardan\/tasarruf sahibi zenginlerden ve kurumlardan) alacaklar\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n, d\u00f6nem faizlerini, zaman\u0131nda ve anaparas\u0131n\u0131 vade sonunda \u00f6deyemez hale d\u00fc\u015fmeleridir. Zaten risk denilen \u015fey de bir k\u00f6t\u00fc sonucun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eimdi sorulmas\u0131 gereken soru \u015fu: Devlet tahvili faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesi bu riskin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131, azalt\u0131r m\u0131? Ku\u015fku yok ki artt\u0131r\u0131r. Risk var deyip, faizi artt\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a, risk de art\u0131yor. K\u0131rk defa risk var diye not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na sebep olunursa, Avrupa devletlerinin bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesi de riske girer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>F\u0130NANSAL SIKILA\u015eTIRMA M\u0130KTARSAL KOLAYLA\u015eTIRMA<\/strong><br \/>\n2009 krizi, 1929\u2019dan sonra ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan en b\u00fcy\u00fck finansal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. 2009\u2019da ya\u015fanan \u201cAmerikan Krizi\u201ddir. 1929 B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran\u0131 (Great Depression) da \u00f6yleydi. Yani Amerikan \u201cFinansal Kapitalizm\u201din bir sistemik \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcyd\u00fc. \u201cFiziksel Kapitalizm\u201d makineler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile emek s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fc yarat\u0131r. Bu bir dengesizlik daha do\u011frusu \u201cdenksizlik\u201dtir. \u201cFinansal Kapitalizm\u201d ise saadet zinciri oyunlar\u0131yla \u201csanal servet\u201d yarat\u0131r. Bu da bir denksizliktir. Arsa borsa ve \u201ckald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (az \u00f6z kaynak-bol bor\u00e7 kaynak) finansal t\u00fcrev\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnler, ki\u015filerin reel ekonomide kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmayan sanal servet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 elde etmesine imk\u00e2n sa\u011flar. Herkes ayn\u0131 kazanc\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131nca, bu sanal servet (varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 balonu) patlar. Buna da kriz denir. Krizden \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in iki yol akla gelir. Bunlardan birincisi \u201cFinansal S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d ikincisi ise \u201cParasal Bolla\u015ft\u0131rma\u201dd\u0131r. Ki buna \u015fu aral\u0131k \u201cMiktarsal Kolayla\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (Quantitative Easing) deniyor. Yani piyasadaki para hacmini artt\u0131r\u0131p, sanal servetin k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc alma i\u015flemi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DO\u011eRUSU HANG\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nGer\u00e7i Avrupa krizi \u201dortak para birimi kullanan\u201d farkl\u0131 devletlerin kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan Amerikan krizinden farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Ama Avrupa i\u00e7in de do\u011frusu, kemerleri az\u0131c\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131p, \u201cparasal bolla\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d uygulamakt\u0131r. Avrupa\u2019y\u0131, krizden \u00e7\u0131karacak bu y\u00f6ntemi ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z k\u0131lman\u0131n tek bir yolu vard\u0131r. O da faizlerin artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bakal\u0131m g\u00f6relim, iktisadi ak\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak m\u0131? Dayan Osman\u2019dan sonra \u201cdayan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u201d demek geliyor i\u00e7imden.<br \/>\nSon S\u00f6z: Bindi\u011fi dal\u0131 kesen, bindi\u011fi dal\u0131 bilmeyendir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SANK\u0130 gizli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 Avrupa\u2019da finansal kriz \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu gizli g\u00fcc\u00fcn, gizli olmayan y\u00fcz\u00fc \u201cDerecelendirme Kurulu\u015flar\u0131\u201d. Bu i\u015fin arkas\u0131nda ABD mi yoksa Almanya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10513\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}