{"id":10472,"date":"2012-01-17T09:10:19","date_gmt":"2012-01-17T07:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10472"},"modified":"2012-01-17T09:10:35","modified_gmt":"2012-01-17T07:10:35","slug":"buyuk-ekonomi-siralamasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyuk-ekonomi-siralamasi\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fck Ekonomi S\u0131ralamas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ortal\u0131kta dola\u015fan grip vir\u00fcs\u00fcnden ben de kurtulamad\u0131m. \u00d6nce hafif atlataca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 zannettim. \u00d6yle olmad\u0131. Cumartesi fena vurdu: Ate\u015f, \u00f6ks\u00fcr\u00fck, doktor, antibiyotik vs. Neticede pazar yaz\u0131m\u0131 yollayamad\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1098589797\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00dc\u0130K ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan hesaplanan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi aral\u0131k sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yay\u0131nland\u0131. Haziran-ekim aras\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli geriliyordu. Kas\u0131mdan sonra aral\u0131kta da y\u00fckseldi. Genelde olumlu haberdir.<\/p>\n<p>Ekim istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik verileri T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Mevsim etkisi temizlenince, eyl\u00fclden ekime istihdam 11 bin ki\u015fi, issizler ise 29 bin ki\u015fi art\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 0.1 puan y\u00fckseliyor. \u0130stihdamda g\u00fczel g\u00fcnlerin sonu geldi mi?<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn 2011 b\u00fct\u00e7e sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bekleniyordu. Gelmedi. Hazine nakit dengesi bir fikir veriyor. Nakit baz\u0131nda faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla 23 milyar TL, toplam nakit a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 15 milyar TL oldu. Milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,1 ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6sterge<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bazen k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli konjonkt\u00fcr g\u00fcndeme h\u00e2kim oluyor. Son d\u00f6nem \u00f6rnektir. Para politikas\u0131 polemikleri canland\u0131. \u00dcst\u00fcne kur, faiz ve enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Kilitlendik. Arada \u00e7\u0131kan ilgin\u00e7 konularda topa giremedik. Biri yerli otomobil muhabbetidir. Adeta her g\u00fcn bir \u015fekilde man\u015fetlere ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Buram buram kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kokuyor. Kambersiz d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn olmazm\u0131\u015f. \u0130lk f\u0131rsatta g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011feri ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck s\u0131ralamas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeridir. S\u00fcrekli g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hangi tarihte ka\u00e7\u0131nc\u0131 s\u0131raya y\u00fckselece\u011fi hesaplan\u0131yor. Hedefler konuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Halbuki iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar uluslararas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalarda milli gelirin mutlak d\u00fczeyini kullanmay\u0131 sevmez. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc net bir g\u00f6sterge de\u011fildir. Birbiri ile nedensellik ba\u011f\u0131 olmayan iki etkeni yans\u0131t\u0131r: N\u00fcfus ve verimlilik.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2559897041\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Buna ra\u011fmen kamuoyunun ve siyasetin ilgisini \u00e7ekiyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Amerikal\u0131lar da \u00c7in\u2019in kendisini ge\u00e7ece\u011fi tarihi merak ediyor. The Economist\u2019in interaktif makalesini tavsiye ederim (www.economist.com\/node\/21540911).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Farkl\u0131 bir tablo<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 verilerini kullanarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloyu haz\u0131rlad\u0131m. Euro b\u00f6lgesini tek \u00fclke kabul ettim. D\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc kapsayan 20 \u00fclkeyi ald\u0131m. Bunlar\u0131n toplam ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirini buldum. S\u0131ralamay\u0131 da toplam milli gelire g\u00f6re yapt\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Ne g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz? T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusa g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 18\u2019inci b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkesidir. En b\u00fcy\u00fck 20 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirde 6\u2019nc\u0131, toplam milli gelirde ise 9\u2019uncu gelmektedir. \u00dcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali yoktur. \u0130lk sekizin n\u00fcfusu \u00e7oktur. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi ge\u00e7mesi an meselesidir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin do\u011fal s\u0131ras\u0131 10\u2019dur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2011244299\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ya altta kalanlar? Sadece Tayland ve Kongo\u2019nun n\u00fcfusu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den az; di\u011ferleri daha kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkelerdir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00e7ok fakir \u00fclkelerdir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 ya da 20 y\u0131lda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u0131ras\u0131n\u0131 zorlayamazlar.<\/p>\n<p>2010 y\u0131l\u0131 N\u00fcfus (milyon) GSYH (milyar $) Ki\u015fi Ba\u015f\u0131 Gelir (bin $)<\/p>\n<p>1 ABD 309 \u201c14,587\u201d 47.2<\/p>\n<p>2 Euroland 332 \u201c12,145\u201d 36.6<\/p>\n<p>3 Cin \u201c1,338\u201d \u201c5,927\u201d 4.4<\/p>\n<p>4 Japonya 127 \u201c5,459\u201d 42.8<\/p>\n<p>5 Brezilya 195 \u201c2,088\u201d 10.7<\/p>\n<p>6 Hindistan \u201c1,171\u201d \u201c1,727\u201d 1.5<\/p>\n<p>7 Rusya 142 \u201c1,480\u201d 10.4<\/p>\n<p>8 Meksika 113 \u201c1,035\u201d 9.1<\/p>\n<p>9 T\u00fcrkiye 73 734 10.1<\/p>\n<p>10 Endonezya 240 707 2.9<\/p>\n<p>11 \u0130ran 74 331 4.5<\/p>\n<p>12 Tayland 69 319 4.6<\/p>\n<p>13 M\u0131s\u0131r 81 219 2.7<\/p>\n<p>14 Filipinler 93 200 2.1<\/p>\n<p>15 Nijerya 158 194 1.2<\/p>\n<p>16 Pakistan 174 177 1.0<\/p>\n<p>17 Vietnam 87 106 1.2<\/p>\n<p>18 Banglade\u015f 149 100 0.7<\/p>\n<p>19 Etiyopya 83 30 0.4<\/p>\n<p>20 Kongo 66 13 0.2<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya \u201c6,841\u201d \u201c63,124\u201d 9.2<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ortal\u0131kta dola\u015fan grip vir\u00fcs\u00fcnden ben de kurtulamad\u0131m. \u00d6nce hafif atlataca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 zannettim. \u00d6yle olmad\u0131. Cumartesi fena vurdu: Ate\u015f, \u00f6ks\u00fcr\u00fck, doktor, antibiyotik vs. Neticede pazar yaz\u0131m\u0131 yollayamad\u0131m.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10472\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}