{"id":10466,"date":"2012-01-17T09:07:42","date_gmt":"2012-01-17T07:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10466"},"modified":"2012-01-17T09:07:54","modified_gmt":"2012-01-17T07:07:54","slug":"alisik-olmayinca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/alisik-olmayinca\/","title":{"rendered":"Al\u0131\u015f\u0131k Olmay\u0131nca&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P, Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde yer alan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. B\u00f6lgedeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin notu T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin alt\u0131nda.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4057773446\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n yeni ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Mariano Rajoy S&amp;P\u2019nin \u00fclkesinin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinden bir g\u00fcn sonra Malaga\u2019da partisinin bir toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, \u0130spanya halk\u0131n\u0131n \u2018kredi notu, risk primi, d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u2019 gibi kavramlarla yenilerde tan\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015f. \u00dclkesini, bu yad\u0131rgad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumdan \u00e7ekip \u00e7\u0131karacaklar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulam\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\nS&amp;P, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde yer alan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu arada, b\u00f6lgedeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin kredi notu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin alt\u0131nda. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131nki zaten bir s\u00fcredir yerlerde geziniyordu. Ek olarak K\u0131br\u0131s Rum Kesimi ve Portekiz\u2019in notu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir d\u00fczeye indi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin notunun BB+ oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m. Notu d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda Avusturya, Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya da var. Bu arada \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n notu A kategorisinin alt\u0131na indi ve BBB+ oldu. \u0130talya bu d\u00f6rt \u00fclkeden en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck nota sahip olan\u0131.<br \/>\n\u00d6te yandan not indirimi uzun bir s\u00fcredir bekleniyordu. Piyasalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir s\u00fcrpriz yok bu indirimde. Ancak \u00e7ok say\u0131da Euro \u00fclkesinin ayn\u0131 anda notunun inmesi ve Almanya hari\u00e7 hepsinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn de \u2018negatif\u2019 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu durumu bir kez daha ortaya koydu. Bu da k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme de\u011fil a\u00e7\u0131k ki.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130stikrar Fonu\u2019nun da notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilir\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nNot indiriminin bir di\u011fer olumsuz etkisi \u015fu: Krizden etkilenen \u00fcye \u00fclkelere bor\u00e7 veren Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonu\u2019nun (EFSF) notunun d\u00fc\u015fmesi de s\u00f6z konusu olabilecek. Zira bu fon, \u00fclkelerin tahvillerini garanti olarak kullanarak bor\u00e7lan\u0131yor ve zor durumdaki \u00fcye \u00fclkelere destek olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bir s\u00fcredir Fon\u2019un bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti Almanya\u2019n\u0131nkinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde seyrediyordu. Bu fark\u0131n biraz daha a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu.<br \/>\nBu Fon\u2019un yerine 2013\u2019te Avrupa \u0130stikrar Mekanizmas\u0131 (ESM) devreye girecekti. Garanti sistemi ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmayan, taze para sermayeye dayanan Avrupa \u0130stikrar Mekanizmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 risk s\u00f6z konusu olmayacak. Bu nedenle Avrupa \u0130stikrar Mekanizmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha erken \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye etki a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan neler s\u00f6ylenebilir? Not indiriminden \u00f6nce Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2012\u2019de bir miktar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi bekleniyordu; bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6nde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkide bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k olmayacak. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryolar\u0131 tasarlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an temel unsur ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012\u2019de ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u0131\u015f kaynak sa\u011flayabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkindi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2012 i\u00e7in \u00e7izilen senaryo de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda para basarak bankalara \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli ucuz kaynak sa\u011flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, bizim gibi \u00fclkelere akan d\u0131\u015f kayna\u011f\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi a\u011f\u0131r bas\u0131yordu. Zira bankalar\u0131n sermaye yeterlilik oranlar\u0131n\u0131 tutturmak ve ayr\u0131ca vadesi gelen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilmek i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daraltmalar\u0131 bekleniyordu.<br \/>\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynak (bu operasyonu yine ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek) ba\u015fka bir olas\u0131l\u0131k daha do\u011furdu. T\u0131pk\u0131 FED\u2019in 2008-2009\u2019da bol miktarda bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 paran\u0131n bizim gibi \u00fclkelere k\u0131sa vadeli para giri\u015fi yaratmas\u0131 gibi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha da basaca\u011f\u0131 paran\u0131n \u2013k\u0131smen de olsa- bizim gibi \u00fclkelere akmas\u0131 ihtimalinden de s\u00f6z eden analistler var.<br \/>\nBu olas\u0131l\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da verilene (y\u00fczde 4) yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Yok, bankalar\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme senaryosu a\u011f\u0131r basarsa ki az bir olas\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fil, daha \u00f6nce sizinle payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m y\u00fczde 1-3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla, not indirimi bu senaryolar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek yeni bir enformasyon sa\u011flamad\u0131. K\u0131sacas\u0131, 2012 i\u00e7in \u00e7izilen senaryolarda bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k olmayacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P, Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde yer alan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. B\u00f6lgedeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin notu T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin alt\u0131nda. \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n yeni ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Mariano Rajoy S&amp;P\u2019nin \u00fclkesinin kredi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10466\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}