{"id":10321,"date":"2012-01-13T10:44:32","date_gmt":"2012-01-13T08:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10321"},"modified":"2012-01-13T10:44:47","modified_gmt":"2012-01-13T08:44:47","slug":"gecen-yilin-sonunda-uretim-ve-ticaret","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gecen-yilin-sonunda-uretim-ve-ticaret\/","title":{"rendered":"Ge\u00e7en Y\u0131l\u0131n Sonunda \u00dcretim ve Ticaret"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son verileri de g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u00d6nce Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim say\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Hemen arkas\u0131ndan\u00a0 da\u00a0 \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri geldi. Ekonomiyi yak\u0131ndan izleyenler i\u00e7in\u00a0 her ikisinde de \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fey yok. Beklenenler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2934120424\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sanayi \u00fcretiminde a\u00e7\u0131klanan bilgi Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminin \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8.4\u00a0 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu veri bir y\u0131ll\u0131k bir\u00a0 zaman\u00a0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0 \u00fcretimdeki\u00a0 de\u011fi\u015fmeyi\u00a0 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor. Bir anlamda\u00a0 \u00fcretimdeki\u00a0 genel tempoyu yans\u0131t\u0131yor bu. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sanayi \u00fcretimi\u00a0 art\u0131\u015f temposunun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0 Bu \u00f6nemli tabii.\u00a0 Y\u0131ll\u0131k aral\u0131kta hesaplanan sanayi \u00fcretiminin GSMH ile \u00e7ok yak\u0131n ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcnce bu \u00f6nem daha da art\u0131yor.\u00a0 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 8.4 d\u00fczeyindeki sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u00a0 temposu 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n da bu civarda bir yerde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n genel temposunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ivmesi de \u00f6nemli. Bunu g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in bir aydan \u00f6tekine \u00fcretim de\u011fi\u015fmesinin boyutunu \u00f6l\u00e7mek gerekiyor. Ancak ayl\u0131k bazdaki veriler mevsimden ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcresinden etkileniyor. Ayl\u0131k hareketi bu etkenlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131racak \u015fekilde temizleyip, d\u00fczeltmek gerekiyor. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re ciddi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi bu etkenlere g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilince bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2.5\u00a0 oran\u0131nda\u00a0 gerilemi\u015f\u00a0 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha \u00f6nce Eyl\u00fcl ve Ekim aylar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda \u00fcretimin s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 1.6\u00a0 ve 4.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc biliniyor. Bu durumu 2011 Kas\u0131m\u00a0 ay\u0131nda hala y\u00fcksek tempoda artan sanayi \u00fcretiminin hafiften\u00a0 ivme kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde okumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6demeler dengesi verileri cari denge a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda net bir gerileme oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cari dengenin 5.2 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu hem genel beklentiden (5.5 milyar dolar) hem de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131ktan (5.9 milyar dolar) daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131z kesiyor olabilece\u011fine dair baz\u0131 belirtiler ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu belirtiler tam olarak do\u011frulamaya yetmese de d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daralmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde genel bir beklenti \u00fcretmi\u015fti. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 verileri\u00a0 bu daralma beklentisini do\u011frular nitelikte. Neredeyse iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcreden sonra ilk kez y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (on iki ayl\u0131k) cari\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00a0 mutlak boyut olarak bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re daralm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ekim 2011\u00a0 de\u00a0 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u00a0 (on iki ayl\u0131k) cari a\u00e7\u0131k 78.6 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kas\u0131m 2011 tarihinde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari a\u00e7\u0131k 77.8 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Aradaki fark belki \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fil ama son 26 ayda s\u00fcrekli olarak y\u00fckselen bu rakam\u0131n \u015fimdi geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. En az\u0131ndan kopup gitmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n frenlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor<\/p>\n<p>Bu son bulgunun cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daralmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etmesi bunun olas\u0131 nedenlerine ili\u015fkin bir tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 da g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yacak ku\u015fkusuz. Bu t\u00fcr bir tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n soyut d\u00fczeyde ve olas\u0131l\u0131klara dayal\u0131 olarak zaten s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc biliyoruz.\u00a0 Aralar\u0131nda benim de oldu\u011fum bir grup yorumcu bir yandan ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 bir taraftan da d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselip, TL&#8217; nin\u00a0 de\u011fer kaybetmesi sonucunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.\u00a0 \u015eimdi bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2596506954\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, en az\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bu kadar acil ve kestirme bir sonuca s\u0131\u00e7ramak do\u011fru olmayabilir. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n ilk b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde sanayi \u00fcretimindeki son durumu de\u011ferlendirmemin bir nedeni de bu.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 itibariyle sanayi \u00fcretiminin bir miktar ivme kaybetse de hala y\u00fcksek tempoda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck.\u00a0 Sanayi \u00fcretimin art\u0131yor olmas\u0131 ekonominin hala canl\u0131 oldu\u011funu, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde seyretti\u011fini ima ediyor.\u00a0 B\u00fcy\u00fcme\u00a0 h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 hen\u00fcz\u00a0 cari\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131kta mutlak bir daralma \u00fcretecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir bu.\u00a0 Oysa cari denge rakamlar\u0131\u00a0 b\u00f6yle\u00a0 bir\u00a0 daralman\u0131n\u00a0 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini\u00a0 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu durum b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131k probleminin hafifleyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc (beklentisini) biraz havada b\u0131rak\u0131yor.\u00a0 En az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n pek de cari a\u00e7\u0131k dostu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmede hen\u00fcz ciddi bir yava\u015flama olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n neden daralmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusunun cevab\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00f6viz kuru a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak durumunda diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. E\u011fer vaziyet b\u00f6yleyse neden hala d\u00f6viz kuru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor sorusu da ayr\u0131 bir \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son verileri de g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u00d6nce Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim say\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Hemen arkas\u0131ndan\u00a0 da\u00a0 \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri geldi. Ekonomiyi yak\u0131ndan izleyenler&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}