{"id":10302,"date":"2012-01-12T20:49:06","date_gmt":"2012-01-12T18:49:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10302"},"modified":"2012-01-12T20:49:23","modified_gmt":"2012-01-12T18:49:23","slug":"kasim-verileri-yeni-bir-egilimi-mi-gosteriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kasim-verileri-yeni-bir-egilimi-mi-gosteriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Kas\u0131m Verileri Yeni Bir E\u011filimi mi G\u00f6steriyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 5.2 milyar dolar oldu. A\u011fustos ve ekim aylar\u0131ndan sonra en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda net d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi 7 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Mart, nisan, may\u0131s ve haziran aylar\u0131ndan sonra en fazla net d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda oldu. Mart ve nisan aylar\u0131ndan sonra net d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015finin cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazla oldu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay kas\u0131m ay\u0131 oldu.<br \/>\n\u00d6demeler dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kas\u0131m ay\u0131 \u00e7ok olumlu ge\u00e7ti. Y\u0131l\u0131n di\u011fer aylar\u0131nda net d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015finden daha fazla cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kayna\u011f\u0131 bilinmeyen d\u00f6viz giri\u015flerinin (net hata ve noksan) yard\u0131m\u0131yla, d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00fczerine fazla bir bask\u0131 yaratmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemlerde dahi, Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervlerini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan sonra net hata ve noksan\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etme boyutu azald\u0131. Net d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015finin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00fczerine bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<br \/>\nKas\u0131m ay\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131lardan di\u011fer aylardan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 oldu. Net d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015finin kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyar dolar daha fazla olmas\u0131 hem d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin artmas\u0131na neden oldu hem de ay i\u00e7inde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k ortalama kurlarla, d\u00f6viz sepeti bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<br \/>\nKas\u0131m ay\u0131 verileri \u00f6demeler dengesinde yeni bir e\u011filimin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 m\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3262880299\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>B\u00dcY\u00dcME<\/strong><br \/>\nBu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde iki \u00f6nemli parametrenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l bir \u015fekil alaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131: Yurti\u00e7inde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u015fartlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015f kaynak \u00e7ekebilme kabiliyeti.<br \/>\nEkonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, ama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00e7ok yava\u015f. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden kaynaklanan ithalat talebi devam ediyor. Veriler ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin hen\u00fcz cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yaratabilecek boyutta d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Kald\u0131 ki, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bu y\u0131l orta vadeli program\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri paralelinde y\u00fczde 4 dahi b\u00fcy\u00fcse, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir h\u0131zda da olsa, ithalat talebinin nominal olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 nominal olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edecek.<br \/>\nCari i\u015flemler dengesinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini sa\u011flayabilecek tek geli\u015fme d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki cari i\u015flemler dengesinde (g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen kalemler) verilen fazlan\u0131n artmas\u0131. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan iyi bir y\u0131ld\u0131. 201 0 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk on bir ay\u0131nda 9.7 milyar dolar olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki cari i\u015flemler dengesi fazlas\u0131 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde 1 2.5 milyar dolar oldu. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam etmemesi i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir neden yok. \u00d6zellikle turizm gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015fla, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden kaynaklanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen kalemlerdeki gelirlerin artmas\u0131yla dengelenebilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DI\u015e KAYNAK G\u0130R\u0130\u015e\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\n201 2 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015finin boyutunu tahmin edebilmek \u00e7ok daha zor bir i\u015f. Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin sorunlar\u0131 ve Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ko\u015fullar bizim gibi \u00fclkelere d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan etkenler.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 201 2 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki performans\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015findeki geli\u015fmelerle \u015fekillenecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Uluslararas\u0131 sermaye 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ile 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki gibi c\u00f6mert oldu\u011fu takdirde, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde bir yava\u015flama dahi olmayabilir. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131r, d\u00f6viz rezervleri artabilir.<br \/>\nAma, d\u0131\u015f kaynak giri\u015fi, \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki gibi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa, hatta yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rsa, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 4&#8217;l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi dahi kald\u0131ramayabilir. Kurlar ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00fczerine bask\u0131lar devam edebilir.<br \/>\nBu belirsizliklerle kas\u0131m ay\u0131 verilerinin \u00f6demeler dengesinde yeni bir e\u011filimin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini iddia edebilmek bu a\u015famada \u00e7ok m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 5.2 milyar dolar oldu. A\u011fustos ve ekim aylar\u0131ndan sonra en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda net d\u0131\u015f kaynak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":5391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10302\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}