{"id":10238,"date":"2012-01-12T09:01:23","date_gmt":"2012-01-12T07:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10238"},"modified":"2012-01-12T09:01:37","modified_gmt":"2012-01-12T07:01:37","slug":"cari-acigin-finansmani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cari-acigin-finansmani\/","title":{"rendered":"Cari A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n Finansman\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rahat d\u0131\u015f kaynak i\u00e7in Avrupa&#8217;da sermaye a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan bankalar\u0131n bunu kredi arz\u0131nda frene basmadan kar\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 \u015fart.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3605036804\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu y\u0131l ekonomimizin 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha az b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yayg\u0131n. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin uyumlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn arkas\u0131ndaki temel nedenlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019daki kriz nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye daha az d\u0131\u015f kaynak gelece\u011fi var. D\u00fcn Kas\u0131m 2011\u2019e ait \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlar bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyle ne kadar uyumlu?<br \/>\nTablo 1\u2019de, \u00f6demeler dengesinin ana kalemleri i\u00e7in 2011\u2019in ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011finin ve ekim-kas\u0131m aylar\u0131n\u0131n ortalama de\u011ferleri yer al\u0131yor. Ek olarak d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan kas\u0131m de\u011ferlerini de veriyorum. Tablo, \u00fc\u00e7 ana par\u00e7adan olu\u015fuyor: Finansman, finansman ihtiyac\u0131 ve rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131. Finansman\u0131n iki ana alt kelemi var: Net sermaye giri\u015fi ile net hata ve noksan. Finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Finansman ile finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131 ise rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fer art\u0131 ise rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131, eksi ise rezerv azal\u0131\u015f\u0131 var anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sermaye giri\u015fi\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nCari dengenin bir miktar toparlanmakta oldu\u011funa dair belirtiler var. Ancak bu daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir analiz gerektiriyor; ayr\u0131 bir yaz\u0131da g\u00fcndem izin verirse ele al\u0131r\u0131m. Net hata ve noksan kaleminin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir par\u00e7a azalm\u0131\u015f. Temmuz-Ekim 2011 d\u00f6nemindeki e\u011filime ters bi\u00e7imde kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda rezervlerde art\u0131\u015f var. Ancak bu rezervlerin resmi rezervler oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k uygulamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na ge\u00e7erek resmi rezerv haline geldi\u011fini unutmamak gerekiyor.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye giren net sermayenin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7o\u011fu analist gibi daha \u00f6nce ben de dikkatinizi \u00e7ekmi\u015ftim. \u0130lk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek ile ekim-kas\u0131m ortalamalar\u0131 bu e\u011filimi net bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ise belirgin bir sermaye giri\u015fi var. Bu, Temmuz-Ekim 2011\u2019deki e\u011filime ters bir e\u011filim. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki e\u011filime ise uygun. Kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa, \u015f\u00fcphesiz 2012\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in korkulan o olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Hangi senaryo?\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nKal\u0131c\u0131 olur mu? Bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 yine hangi senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak \u00e7\u00f6zecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atabilmesi i\u00e7in gereksindi\u011fi zaman\u0131 kazanmak \u00fczere Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 para miktar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131? Bunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ile sorunlu \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvillerinden al\u0131r m\u0131? Bu bas\u0131lan paran\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 y\u00fcksek getiri i\u00e7in bizim gibi \u00fclkelere gelir mi? Bu sorular\u0131n \u2018yan\u0131t\u0131\u2019 evet ise 2012\u2019de korkulan olmaz ve T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulmakta zorlanmaz. Sorular\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 ise korkulan\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olur. Sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphesiz \u2018bilemiyoruz, belirsiz\u2019 \u015feklinde. Yan\u0131t\u0131n \u2018evet\u2019 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019da sermaye a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan bankalar\u0131n, bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kredi arz\u0131nda keskin bi\u00e7imde frene basmadan kar\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de unutmamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/01\/12\/fft16_mf894365.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rahat d\u0131\u015f kaynak i\u00e7in Avrupa&#8217;da sermaye a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan bankalar\u0131n bunu kredi arz\u0131nda frene basmadan kar\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 \u015fart. Bu y\u0131l ekonomimizin 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha az&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10238\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}